fresh analysis from
http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/db900SID/JBRN-7N9E43?OpenDocument
A new balance of power in Somalia
Somalia's multifaceted crisis is currently more finely balanced than at
any time in the past several months. A number of interrelated events
account for this situation. First the Ethiopian security forces have
reduced their footprint in Somalia, even if they continue to intervene
in local politics and provide support to allies and surrogates in
various guises, as they do in the Gedo-region.
The nature of the security vacuum they have left is open to
dispute, and there are many observers who hope that Ethiopia's
withdrawal will deprive the militant liberationists of much of their
nationalist appeal. In this regard much will depend on how the security
needs of Mogadishu, in particular, are met. There are signs that
elements of the rump of the transitional federal government (TFG), clan
militias and the accommodationist Djibouti wing of the Alliance for the
Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS-D) are trying to assume control of
certain law and order functions. The future role of the African Union
mission (Amisom) remains opaque. The AU Peace and Security Committee
has urged its reinforcement and for the United Nations (UN) to provide
urgently needed financial and logistical support. Whether the UN
Security Council will be able to shed its institutional lethargy
quickly enough to do this remains to be seen, though the US and other
interested parties are also urging rapid action to make the best use of
what they see as a rare opportunity to influence matters positively.
Of course, the militant liberationists have always tried to
depict Amisom as an Ethiopian tool for assisting the TFG. In addition
the UN has forfeited some of its claims to political neutrality by
financing a TFG police force that was scarcely distinguishable from a
warlord militia. The argument can therefore still be made that a low
profile is what is required on the part of would-be peacekeepers, so
that even if a measure of inter-militia violence ensues, this is seen
to be a domestic issue rather than another surrogate operation with
foreign agendas in mind.
The resignation last month of Somalian President Abdullahi
Yusuf and the subsequent decampment of his Darod militiamen to Puntland
has also changed the balance of power in south-central Somalia.
However, it also provides the new president of Puntland, Abdirahman
Mohamed "Farole" with greater muscle to engage in his feud with
Somaliland, should the dispute over Sool and Sanaag again move beyond
negotiation.
Farole's election by Puntland's parliament last week marked the
end of the controversial rule of President Mohamed Musa Adde, who had
long been at odds with the legislators of this autonomous region of
Somalia and had occasionally clashed with the TFG, especially over the
granting of potentially lucrative oil exploration contracts on land and
at sea. President Musa Adde's administration had also failed to deal
with the pirate menace, which is based largely in Puntland and
apparently flourished with the connivance of certain of his colleagues.
President Farole has promised to end the pirate scourge, which would
certainly earn him the plaudits of an international community facing
the expense of extensive naval operations. He has also urged other
areas of Somalia to embrace the constitutional path attempted by
Puntland since 1998: the formation of responsible local administrations
ultimately subordinate to the transitional federal government.
At present the TFG is headed by an interim president, Sheikh
Adan "Madobe" Mohamed, but parliament is due to meet on 26 January to
elect a new head of state. Madobe has insisted that arrangements for
the formation of a new unity government, which would see the size of
parliament doubled to 550 members, will have to wait, though this has
been contested by an official statement following a ministerial meeting
attended by representatives from Somalia, Uganda and Burundi (the troop
contributing countries to Amisom), the UN, AU and ARS-D. According to
the press release from this meeting, a unity government will be formed
before the presidential vote in Djibouti on the 26th, which will be
both a political and logistical challenge.
It might be argued that strict adherence to the procedures
dictating a presidential election within thirty days of the previous
incumbent's resignation might by waived in the interests of a more
promising and more soundly based administration, though it might be
argued that a new president, especially one commanding popularity in
Mogadishu, would give much needed fillip to the project of refurbishing
the threadbare TFG.
Since its inception in 2004 the TFG has been regarded by many,
if not most, Somalis as a political solution imposed by outsiders. If a
government is to be fashioned in Somalia that can somehow break the
mould of the past, it will probably take more time and patient support
than the international community is willing to concede, especially as
any good that is to be done from outside will have to be extremely low
in profile. This is often advice that is difficult to heed, especially
when foreign politicians and diplomats are eager to be seen to be doing
something.
Richard Cornwell, Senior Research Fellow, African Security Analysis Programme, ISS Tshwane (Pretoria)
also it appears from this report that france & djibouti have all but formally recognized somaliland
http://somalilandpress.com/926/somaliland-delegation-due-in-djibouti
Somaliland delegation due in Djibouti for talks Sun, Jan 11, 2009
Hargeisa
(SomalilandPress, Jan 11th 2009); A high-level delegation officials
from Somaliland is set to travel to the Republic of Djibouti early
Monday to seal an agreement that the two nations have signed June last
year (2008). The ministers consist of the Foreign Minister, Interior
Minister, Finance Minister and deputy Information Minister.
The delegation are expected to hold talks with their Djibouti
counter-parts and will discuss a number of key agreements the two
countries have already signed, these includes;-
To further collaborate and strengthen the relationship and maintain security in the region such as sharing intelligence.
Both nations have condmned Eritrea’s aggression on Djibouti’s sovereignty
To open and strengthen economic ties and growth.
To allow free movement of civilians on both sides of the border
Within this agreement France’s third largest bank is expected
to open a branch in Hargeisa; the capital of Somaliland, some time this
week and build the nation build its commercial banking system. This
will be the first such bank to open it’s services to
Somalilanders and is expected to connect Somalilanders to the rest of
the world. This highlights the growing relationship between Somaliland,
Djibouti and France since Nicolas Sarkozy became the President of
France.
at the same time it appears from this report that somaliland jurisdiction has been largely restored in the sanaag & sool regions that were previously occupied & are clearly still coveted by puntland
http://www.garoweonline.com/artman2/publish/Somalia_27/Somalia_Puntland_s_new_leader_frustrates_Somaliland.shtml
Somalia: Puntland's new leader frustrates Somaliland
11 Jan 11, 2009 - 9:47:40 AM
HARGEISA, Somalia Jan 11 (Garowe Online) -
The
newly elected leader of Somalia's Puntland regional government has
demanded that Somaliland separatists withdraw their forces from the
disputed regions, Radio Garowe reports.
Puntland's new
leader urged the Somaliland public not support separatist government's
agenda to spoil the upcoming election in Somaliland.
"I urge you [Somaliland people] not to support the
administration as it attempts to win the election [in March] by
bringing troops and election boxes to regions where Somaliland has no
support," President Farole said.
He challenged
the Somaliland leadership, saying: "Where are the community and
traditional leaders of the regions [Sool and Sanaag]? They are all here
in Garowe," he answered, referring to the capital of Puntland.
"I request the
Somaliland administration to stop the hostilities and to immediately
withdraw from Sool [region] and to respect good neighborliness among
the brotherly peoples who will always need each other," President
Farole added.
Somaliland response
Mr. Abdullahi Mohamed Du'ale, Somaliland's foreign affairs minister, heatedly responded to the new Puntland leader's comments.
"We
[Somaliland] see these comments as a new development," Mr. Du'ale told
the BBC Somali Service during a Sunday interview, before flying from
Hargeisa to Djibouti.
He suggested
that the Puntland leader's position is that "all the related clans work
together. Governance cannot be built on clans. It looks like he
[Farole] is sending us backwards."
Somaliland's
foreign minister expressed surprise at Puntland President Farole's
clear position vis-à-vis the disputed regions, saying: "The men
before him used to sugarcoat words."
Responding to
Dr. Farole's challenge, Mr. Du'ale said: "I was part of the Somaliland
delegation that visited Las Anod [capital of Sool] to monitor the
voter-registration process, which is going well. The traditional elders
in Garowe have become politicians."
He strongly
defended Somaliland's unrecognized borders, saying that Somalia was
originally divided into British Protectorate of Somaliland and the
Italian colony of Somalia.
Mr. Du'ale called on the Puntland administration to combat insecurity and piracy instead.
Somaliland's
separatist government claims colonial-era boundaries in its bid for
international recognition, but the breakdown of the Somali nation-state
in 1991 has led to each clan to establish self-rule its native land.
The most
well-known traditional elders from Sool region, native to the
Dhulbahante clan, have been in Garowe for months where they played a
key role in overseeing a smooth and successful election process that
brought Dr. Farole to power on Jan. 8.
President Farole's deputy, Gen. Abdisamad Ali Shire, is a Dhulbahante clansman from Sool region.
The Dhulbahante
clan, along with President Farole's Majerteen and the Warsangeli, form
the Harti confederacy of the larger Darod clan-family, which forms the
core constituency of Puntland.
In Somaliland,
the dominant Isaaq clan is perceived as the primary supporters of
secession while the Harti clans are seen as pro-Somali unity.
Thousands of
civilians who fled Las Anod following Somaliland's takeover in Oct.
2007 now live in Garowe and other parts of Puntland.
nevertheless the writ of hargeisa still appears a bit hedged around the frontier areasjudging from recent voter registration incidents etc
regions map
http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/africa/somalia_pol02.jpg
on which the abovementioned las anod is written laascaanood
on the approaching presidential election in somaliland
http://somaliland.org/blog/2009/01/who-is-expected-to-win-somaliland-presidential-elections/
Who is expected to Win Somaliland Presidential Elections
January 12th, 2009
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THE PEOPLE OF SOMALILAND ARE GOING TO THE POLLS TO VOTE FOR A NEW PRESIDENT IN LESS THAN FOUR MONTHS. WHO IS EXPECTED TO WIN?
The next election will be the second presidential election since the introduction of multiparty democracy and presidential elections into Somaliland. The last presidential election had taken place in 2003 and the incumbent president won.
President Rayale won that election with less than 90 votes.
President Rayale and Chairman Silanyo each garnered 42% of the vote
while Engineer Faysal obtained 16% of the vote. In that election, not
only the margin of victory was so thin but also accusations of vote
rigging and some other voting irregularities were made by the
opposition parties.
As they did in 2003, the opposition parties – Kulmiye and UCID
- have again nominated Chairman Silanyo and Engineer Faysal for the
presidency and the governing party, UDUB, is expected to do the same
and nominate the president for re-election. Hence, the next election
will be a rematch of the last one.
In contrast with most of the developing countries around the world,
Somaliland held successful parliamentary elections three years ago, a
satisfactory presidential election two years earlier and smooth
municipal elections six years ago. But even so, this time the
suspicions are high because of the voter registration scandals and the
government’s continuing effort to delay the election. Therefore,
there is a great danger that, unless the people believe that the
election process is free, fair and transparent, the country's image and
stability could get a dangerous blow.
After the result of the close election of 2003 was announced, most
of the people of Somaliland were not expecting that the opposition
would give in easily. But to the surprise of most of the Somaliland
people, Chairman Silanyo accepted defeat. And by doing so, he diffused
the worst political crises in Somaliland and thus the first-ever
presidential election entered the history books as a peaceful one.
Kulmiye Party supporters claim, that unlike other Somali politicians
who always put their political ambitions and interest above and over
everything else, Chairman Silanyo is a true statesman and a patriot who
would rather lose an election than plunge the country into instability.
And there may be some truth into that considering the numerous
concessions he made during recent political and constitutional crisis
and after the virtually-tie election of 2003.
Will Chairman Silanyo, therefore, get revenge on President Rayale and beat him in 2009?
Kulmiye Party supporters believe that if the election is held in
peace, their chances of defeating the president are huge and bright.
They say their candidate is gaining ground in every region of the
country while the president is losing support even in his home region.
“The president knows that he can not win a fair election and
that is why he is delaying the election and hanging on to the
power”, a close friend of Engineer Sayli, the running mate of
Chairman Silanyo, told me by phone recently.
“When you take into consideration the close election of 2003,
the low approval rating of the president and the huge public
displeasure of his government, you get the sense that Kulmiye will
sweep to victory in all the regions”, an independent
political insider from Somaliland who is on vacation in Ottawa told me
a few days ago. “The only thing that is not clear at this time is
whether there will be an election or not”, he added.
It’s also being reported that Chairman Silanyo and Engineer Sayli are also very confident of winning big.
I, too, believe that the chairman and the engineer will not only
win, but they will win in a landslide and the biggest upset will happen
in Awdal – the home region of the president. And I am not alone
in the column of people who believe that Kulmiye will prevail. Almost
all the political pundits I know believe that the president will get
re-elected only and only if the Somaliland people go crazy on Election
Day.
What are the chances of Engineer Faysal, the leader of UCID Party?
Engineer Faysal has better chances than the president does. However,
he has an uphill battle to overcome and his chances of wining the
highest office in the nation are very slender. But who knows what might
happen. Who thought President Rayale would win the presidency in 2003?
This is my personal opinion and answer to the question cited in the
topic. So please do not get mad and include me in your hit list. But
instead, take a deep breath, relax and ask yourself what you can
do for your country to make possible that the election will be held on
time and that the voting will be carried out properly.
I hope that every citizen will cast his ballot according to the law
- no cheating and no rigging – and that the people of Somaliland
will keep cool as usual and vote intelligently and peacefully as this
election will be a major determining factor in the future direction of
the country.
Abdulkarim Hassan Ali*
Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
*Abdulkarim Hassan Ali grew up in Borama. He currently resides in
Ottawa, Canada. He has traveled to and worked in Somaliland for the
past several years. Abdulkarim has a doctoral degree (PhD) in
Structural Engineering from University of Ottawa, Ontario, Canada; a
Master of Science (MS) degree in Civil Engineering from Tufts
University, Massachusetts, USA; and a Bachelor of Science (BS) degree
in Civil Engineering from Gahayr College, Mogadishu, Somalia.
& meanwhile a prominent american businessman with interests in africa is reported by the financial times as predicting & banking on the breakups not only of somalia & sudan but ethiopia & nigeria too
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a4cbe81e-de84-11dd-9464-000077b07658.html
cheers
