THE CAMBRIDGE STATISTICS DISCUSSION GROUP
PLEASE NOTE CHANGE OF MEETING DATE TO THAT ORIGINALLY LISTED
Tuesday 25th November 2008 7:15 for 7:45
Statistical Laboratory,
Centre for Mathematical Sciences,
Wilberforce Road
Cambridge
Understanding Uncertainty
David Spiegelhalter
Winton Professor for the Public Understanding of Risk
Abstract:
Are you uncertain? Are you struggling with risk, doubt, ignorance,
ambiguity and indecision? You are not on your own. Here we try and make
some sense of what we hear about chance, risk, uncertainty and probability.
Examples that we have been considering include coincidence, national
lottery draws, performances in the Premier Football League and life
expectancies. We are also interested in how risk stories are portrayed
in the media.
Speaker:
After obtaining his PhD in Mathematical Statistics from the University
of London in 1978, David worked at various institutions including a
spell at Berkeley, California before joining the MRC Biostatistics Unit
in Cambridge in 1981. He currently divides his time between the MRC and
the Centre for Mathematical Sciences where he is an honorary professor
of Biostatistics. His current research interests include Bayesian approaches
to clinical trials and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods which have
been developed for use by a team including David via the BUGS software.
David has also been a twice holder of the Royal Statistical Society's
Guy medal and on various editorial boards. In October 2007 David became
the Winton Professor for the Public Understanding of Risk with an aim
of trying to engage interest in uncertainty, probability and statistics.
Directions:
The main entrance is reached from Clarkson Road by going along the
footpath to the right of the Newton Institute, and turning left through the
gatehouse towards the main building (Pavilion A), which has a glass front and
a curved grassed roof. The main entrance is in the middle of the glass
front. Coffee before the talk will be in the common room in Pavilion D,
and the talk will be in Meeting Room 4 in Pavilion A. Free Parking is
available after 5pm on Clarkson and Wilberforce Roads.
Next Meetings (2009):
3rd February - Peter Lane (GSK) on 'Meta-analysis of clinical trials,
particularly of rare adverse events.'
5th March - Ben Marchant (Rothamsted Research).
2nd April - Phil Dawid (Statistical Laboratory).
7th May - Jenni Barclay (UEA).
Supper: Some members eat regularly in the University Centre before
each talk meeting in the downstairs bar at 6pm. Feel free to join them.
Subscriptions: of 1 pound are now due for attending the 2008-2009 session.
Secretary: Peter Watson, MRC Cognition and Brain Sciences Unit,
15 Chaucer Road, Cambridge CB2 7EF;telephone 01223 355294 Extension 801;
E-mail [log in to unmask]
Take a look at our website:
http://www.mrc-cbu.cam.ac.uk/~peterw/csdg.htm
