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Hamid I just remembered this report that you might find useful: Managing uncertainty in healthcare: Report of a meeting organised by NICE and AHRQ. http://www.nice.org.uk/media/A1A/E6/NICEAHRQWorkshopReportFINAL.pdf It highlights the problem that uncertainty poses for healthcare policy makers. Michael -----Original Message----- From: Michael Power Sent: 24 October 2008 08:02 Subject: Re: Uncertainty in Medicine Hi Hamid Gerd Gigerenzer talks about the "illusion of certainty" in this paper: http://www.psychologicalscience.org/journals/pspi/pspi_8_2_article.pdf There is also a book entitled "The Illusion of Certainty: Health Benefits and Risks" by Erik Rifkin and Edward Bouwer. It is aimed at a non-technical audience, and mostl considers the (mis)understanding of environmental risks. http://www.amazon.co.uk/Illusion-Certainty-Health-Benefits- Risks/dp/0387751653/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1224831361&sr=8-1 Best wishes Michael Dr Michael Power Clinical Knowledge Author, Guideline Developer and Informatician Clinical Knowledge Summaries Service www.cks.library.nhs.uk > >I would like to let you know that I am going to talk about Uncertainty in Medicine , could you ask other colleagues to give me thier advic, any usefull material and so on .... ... >Hamid Baradaran, M.D., Ph.D >Assistant Professor of Epidemiology >Medical Education & Development Centre >Iran University of Medical Sciences >PO. Box: 14155-5983 , Tehran >Iran >Tel: (+98) 21 88052252 >Fax: (+98) 21 88052967 >Email : [log in to unmask]