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Count me in as an estimator. I am happy to participate and I agree with Ahmed that this is a diagnostic accuracy test and that the methodology should be as serious as any other nice published article. On Fri, Jul 4, 2008 at 7:51 AM, Ahmed Abou-Setta, M.D. < [log in to unmask]> wrote: > Dear Colleagues, > > Hope all is well. I have been following this thread very closely and I > think it is developing very nicely. I believe that it is time to take it to > the next level. My suggestion is that we take this project on as we would > any day-to-day research project by developing a focused set of outcomes, > prepare a protocol and perform the study. In essence this is a diagnostic > accuracy test to determine how accurate "human intuition" and "visual > accuracy" is when looking at forest plots. I believe that the results will > be rewarding for all individuals involved in both performing systematic > review, teaching evidence-based medicine and/or reads publications on a > regular basis. > > In addition, I would opt to using a set of "artificial" forest plots, > rather than predefined plots, since it will allow us to create a much larger > range of options in order to increase the accuracy of the results by > including different factors, such as sample size, number of studies, > heterogeneity etc. In addition, I would note that since the point estimate > and confidence intervals can change with different pooling methods, we > should include this issue as part of the question. Lastly, I would be > interested if experience affects the results, and so I would suggest to > perform a regression analysis against factors as the reviewer's experience > as defined by number of years performing systematic review, number of > publications, etc. It will interesting to see whether a seasoned reviewer is > more accurate than a novice. > > In conclusion, I believe that this is a great idea, and should be performed > with as much professionalism as we would put in any of our daily research > projects. Also I believe the results should be published to allow the > greatest number of individuals to gain from our experience. > > Thank you for your time and consideration. > > Please accept my regards. > > Sincerely, > > Ahmed > > > _______________________________________ > > Ahmed M. Abou-Setta, MD, PhD > > Independent researcher/ systematic reviewer > Consulting Senior Systematic Reviewer, > Chalmers Research Group, CHEO Research Institute (CHEO RI) > Children's Hospital of Eastern Ontario, University of Ottawa > Member, Geneva Foundation for Medical Education & Research > Member, Menstrual Disorders & Subfertility Subgroup, Cochrane Collaboration > > > 5, El-Ashwal Street, from Pyramids Road > Maashal Station, Pyramids > Giza, Egypt > Mobile: (+20-11) 852-0067 > E-mail: [log in to unmask] > > > > -- Carlos A. Cuello-García, MD, Doctoral Candidate Director, Centre for Evidence-Based Practice-Tecnologico de Monterrey Cochrane-ITESM coordinator. Professor of Paediatrics and Clinical Research Avda. Morones Prieto 3000 pte. Col. Doctores. CITES 3er. piso,Monterrey NL, México. CP64710 Phone. +52 (81) 88882154 & 2141 www.cmbe.net The content of this data transmission must not be considered an offer, proposal, understanding or agreement unless it is confirmed in a document signed by a legal representative of ITESM. The content of this data transmission is confidential and is intended to be delivered only to the addressees. Therefore, it shall not be distributed and/or disclosed through any means without the authorization of the original sender. If you are not the addressee, you are forbidden from using it, either totally or partially, for any purpose