Print

Print


Dr. Osman's message is puzzling. My paper does not mention the AHP. Here is
the abstract:
"Preference measurement plays a fundamental role, and is necessary in order
to introduce the real numbers and operations on them, in game theory and
economics. It is not possible to escape the need to construct preference
functions by assuming that payoVs are in money units and that each player
has a utility function which is linear in terms of money. The mathematical
operations of game theory are performed on preferences for objects rather
than on empirical objects, preference scales are not unique, and preference
spaces are not vectors spaces. UndeWned sums and ill-deWned concepts which
are based on preference scales where whose preference is being measured is
not speciWed are the source of many game theory errors. For example, the
characteristic function of a game, the Shapley value, the concept of
imputations, and von Neumann and Morgenstern's solution of a game are
ill-deWned. Von Neumann and Morgenstern's utility theory and its variants
cannot serve as the foundations of any scientiWc discipline because their
construction rules are contradictory and for additional reasons."

The paper does deal with logical errors at the foundations of decision
theory. Here is a sample:
"Howard says that a normative theory establishes norms for how things should
be (In Praise of the Old Time Religion [13, p. 29]) and appears to suggest
that decision theory says how you should act in compliance with von Neumann
and Morgenstern's assumptions [13, p. 31]. His comments on "second-rate
thinking" and education [13, p. 30] seem to indicate that he believes that
those who do not share his praise for the old time utility religion need to
be re-educated. In the context of logic and science this position is
untenable - mathematical theories do not dictate assumptions to decision
makers. Furthermore, educating decision makers to follow Xawed theories is
not a remedy for "second-rate thinking." Flawed theories should be corrected
rather than be taught as the norm.
Unfortunately, according to Edwards [7, pp. 254-255]), Howard is not alone.
Edwards reports as editor of the proceedings of a conference on utility
theories that the attendees of the conference unanimously agreed that the
experimental and observational evidence has established as a fact the
assertion that people do not maximize "subjective expected utility" and the
attendees also unanimously stated that they consider "subjective expected
utility" to be the appropriate normative rule for decision making under risk
or uncertainty. These utility theorists are saying that although decision
makers reject the assumptions of the mathematical theory of utility, they
should accept the conclusions which these assumptions imply. This position
is logically untenable."

It seems that Dr. Osman responded to my paper before reading it and attached
a paper that cannot be a response to mine since Mrs. Saaty's paper was
published before mine was written (to the best of my knowledge Rozann
Whitaker does not hold a doctoral degree and being Tom Saaty's wife
constitutes her only qualifications in decision theory). The logical
relevance of Dr. Osman's message to my paper is unclear.

Jonathan Barzilai, D.Sc.
Professor,
Dalhousie University