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PENINSULA MEDICAL SCHOOL Epidemiology & Public Health Group PhD Studentship: Using age-period-cohort models to analyze long-term health trends A major methodological challenge arises in the separation of age, period, and cohort effects in epidemiological studies due to the so-called "identification problem". The problem is an important one because disentangling these effects is crucial to predicting future trends in health and disease. Improving our capacity to anticipate changes in disease incidence and prevalence will enable more effective targeting of preventive measures, better provision of appropriate interventions, and improved forecasting of future healthcare needs. Recent research has led to substantial contributions to the methodology for estimating age-period-cohort models from aggregate population data. This PhD project will focus on the development and application of age-period-cohort models using individual-level data from a number of large repeated cross-sectional surveys. Bayesian hierarchical models will be used to exploit the multilevel structure of the data and to test explanatory hypotheses about trends in health within the UK and overseas. Depending on the strengths and interests of the student the approach taken may focus on either the statistical or the epidemiological and public health aspects of the project. The project will be supervised by Dr Iain Lang and Professor David Melzer (Epidemiology & Public Health Group, Peninsula Medical School) and Dr William Henley (School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Plymouth). Preferred start date is the 1st of October 2008. Deadline for applications is 6th May. The studentship will be based in Exeter. The studentship comes with a stipend of £12,600 per year plus home fees. Informal enquiries may be addressed to Iain Lang ([log in to unmask]<mailto:[log in to unmask]>, 01392 406749). For more information about the work of the group see http://www.pms.ac.uk/pms/research/epidem.php