In the light of the list-feedback to 'the way ahead'
and in view of the remarks made by
Mrs Beckett,
Sir David King and
James Lovelock [Start the Week R4 09.00] this morning,
under the heading:
"Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change"
specifically on the points concerning
[1] the stock:flow relationship between emissions and concentrations of GHG.
[2] the in/constancy of this relationship and its importance to C&C advocacy. The now aggravated
rate of accumulation that seems to be coming about and the projection of this, is fundamental to this debate.
The government scientists have known about this for at least a decade, yet it is only now that the government's position says: -
[1] "the problem seems to be more serious than we preveiously said";
[1] +/- 400 ppmv - which we reach in 10 years - is probably the atmospheric accumulation maxim under which we can hope to avoid dangerous rates of climate change
[2] but we cannot hope for less than 550 ppmv [King]
[3] nuclear power does not avoid dangerous climate change, but [if you are Jim Lovelock] it establishes a pocket of western civilization in the UK, where the lights remain on in an otherwise darkening world.
Saying 'no/yes' to nuclear and yes to <> 550 ppmv is not
a strategy, it is WASP delusions and mistaking the finger for the moon.
[i.e. barking]
This is the news release about the book which has led to the current flurry
of interest...
30/01/2006 12:48 Department for Environment, Food And Rural Affairs
(National)
HOW MUCH CLIMATE CHANGE CAN WE TAKE? - DEFRA LAUNCHES NEW BOOK
Over the last year we have seen growing evidence of climate change. Indeed,
statistics suggest that 2005 is the second warmest year on record. The
Arctic sea ice shrank to its lowest extent last summer and devastating
hurricanes show how sensitive even developed societies are to extreme
weather.
Temperatures are expected to continue to rise and extreme events are
likely
to become more frequent with climate change. But how much climate change can
we take? How can we avoid levels which can be considered dangerous? The
"Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change" book, which is being launched today by
Defra, explores these questions.
The book gives an account of the most recent developments on the science of
climate change, explores how much climate change is too much and how can we
avoid it. It examines the consequences of different levels of climate change
in terms of impacts for different sectors and regions, as well as the world
as a whole. And it considers technological options that can be deployed to
achieve different levels of climate change as the world moves to a lower
carbon economy.
The book builds on the scientific findings presented at the "Avoiding
Dangerous Climate Change" conference, which took place at the Met Office,
Exeter in February 2005 at the start of the UK's G8
Presidency.
Prime Minister Tony Blair said the Exeter conference provided a scientific
backdrop to the whole of the UK's G8 Presidency and the Summit at
Gleneagles.
Writing in the foreword of the book, Mr Blair said: "At the Gleneagles
meeting the leaders of the G8 were able to agree on the importance of
climate change, that human activity does contribute to it and that
greenhouse gas emissions need to slow, peak and reverse. All G8 countries
agreed on the need to make substantial cuts in emissions and to act with
resolve and urgency now.
"This book will serve as more than a record of another conference or event.
It will provide an invaluable resource for all people wishing to enhance
global understanding of the science of climate change and the need for
humanity to act to tackle the problem."
Environment Secretary Margaret Beckett said: "I am very pleased that the
book has been prepared in such a short time
following the ground-breaking
conference on Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change.
"The conference provided an important scientific context for our G8 sessions
last year and illustrates very clearly the urgency with which the world has
to tackle climate change."
Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, chief editor of the book, said: "We
hope that this book will make a significant contribution to the scientific
and policy debate on what constitutes dangerous climate change."
Notes to Editors:
1 The book, "Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change" has been prepared by an
editorial board, led by Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, and is
published by Cambridge University Press, price £70. More details are
available at http://www.cambridge.org/0521864712 A pdf of the book will be
available later today on the Defra website.
2 A document to go with the "Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change Book" has
today been released by Defra.
It contains a foreword by Dennis Tirpak, chair
of the conference international scientific steering committee and an
executive summary of book. It can be found on the Defra website at
http://www.defra.gov.uk/corporate/publications/pubcat/env.htm#climate
3 The book is being launched tonight at a reception at the Royal Society,
where speakers will include David Vaughan, British Antarctica Survey; Carol
Turley, Plymouth Marine Laboratory; Rachel Warren, University of East Anglia
and Terry Barker, University of Cambridge.
4 The International Symposium on Stabilisation of Greenhouse Gas
Concentrations - Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change - took place at the
invitation of the British Prime Minister Tony Blair under the sponsorship of
Defra at the Met Office, Exeter on February 1-3, 2005. Information on the
conference is available at http://www.stabilisation2005.com
5 Follow-up events to the Conference were held at the meeting of
the
Subsidiary Bodies of the United Nations Conference on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) in June and at the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC in
Montreal in December.
6 The book will provide input into the UNFCCC's Fourth Assessment Report,
which will be launched in 2008.
