Apologies for cross postings:
SPATIAL RESOLUTION ENHANCEMENT FOR ENVIRONMENTAL DATA - a meeting organized
by the Environmental Statistics Section of the Royal Statistical Society
Date: 24th October 2006
Time: 11:30-17:30 (lunch 13:00-14:00, tea break 15:30-16:00)
Place: The Royal Statistical Society, 12 Errol Street, London EC1Y 8LX (see
http://www.rss.org.uk/main.asp?page=1759 for location information)
Summary: Many environmental problems require data at a finer spatial
resolution than is routinely available. The meeting will look at methods
for resolution enhancement in different areas of environmental science.
Registration: There will be a registration fee to cover the cost of lunch
and speakers’ expenses. Fees are as follows: RSS Fellows £20, Student
Fellows £15, CStats/GradStats £17.50, all others £25. Registration forms
may be obtained from Paul Gentry ([log in to unmask]) or from the web page
for the meeting: http://www.rss.org.uk/main.asp?page=1321&event=306.
Speakers are as follows (abstracts can be found below):
- Erasmo Buonomo (Hadley Centre, Met Office):
Statistical and dynamical downscaling of climate model projections
- Mike Christie (Heriot-Watt University):
Determining subgrid error in computational models for porous media flows
- Christian Onof (Imperial College) and Nadja Leith (UCL):
Subdaily precipitation downscaling for hydrology
- David Rogers (Oxford University):
BigSmall: refining species' and risk-map predictions from data recorded at
large area units
- Alfred Stein (ITC International Institute for Geoinformation Science and
Earth Observation, Enschede, the Netherlands):
A general statistical perspective on issues of spatial scale and some
applications
- Rob Wilby (Environment Agency of England and Wales):
Statistical downscaling in practice: Recent applications and future directions
The running order will be confirmed at a later date. For further details,
please contact Richard Chandler ([log in to unmask])
ABSTRACTS OF PRESENTATIONS
--------------------------
Erasmo Buonomo (Hadley Centre, Met Office): Statistical and dynamical
downscaling of climate model projections
Abstract: Atmospheric-ocean general circulation models (AOGCM) are the
standard tools to produce global climate projection on the decadal and
centennial timescales. However, the horizontal resolution of these models,
usually ~100km, is not sufficient to the end users of climate simulations.
The statistical and dynamical approaches to downscale the global climate
information to provide information at local scale (~1-10km) will be
presented at the meeting.
Mike Christie (Heriot-Watt University): Determining subgrid error in
computational models for porous
media flows
Abstract: Determining the impact of sub-grid phenomena is important for
many areas of computational physics. This is particularly true for inverse
problems and Bayesian inference. The standard approach, as described for
example in Kennedy and O'Hagan (2001), assumes unknown model errors that
are independent of the unknown parameters in the model and estimates them
as part of the inference problem. In this talk, we describe the use of
separate computational experiments to determine the errors for an example
porous media flow problem. By running separate computational experiments,
we are able to determine the variation of model errors with model
parameters as well as the independent variables in the problem.
Christian Onof (Imperial College) and Nadja Leith (UCL): Subdaily
precipitation downscaling for hydrology
Abstract: Many hydrological applications require precipitation data at a
fine spatial and temporal scale. This talk will describe work on the use of
climate model outputs at coarse spatial and temporal resolution to
condition simulations of subdaily rainfall sequences at individual sites,
incorporating scenarios of climate change. Techniques based on generalised
linear models will be discussed, along with stochastic models based on
Poisson cluster process. The two model classes are coupled using stable
relationships between the properties of observed rainfall sequences at
different time scales.
David Rogers (Oxford University): BigSmall: refining species' and risk-map
predictions from data recorded at large area units
Abstract: This talk looks at two examples of refining distribution
predictions using satellite imagery applied to field data collected or
recorded only from large area units. The first example concerns bird
distributions in Uganda where a degree grid scale database is used to make
bird species' risk maps at satellite image resolution; the results look
reasonable, but have not yet been independently tested. The second example
concerns epidemiological data often recorded at administrative unit level;
a dataset with locational records was artificially made into an admin.
level database. The resulting predictions could therefore be tested against
the original data.
Alfred Stein (ITC International Institute for Geoinformation Science and
Earth Observation, Enschede, the Netherlands): A general statistical
perspective on issues of spatial scale and some applications
Abstract: Scales in space and time are addressed from a resolution
perspective. Both spatial interpolation and simulation tools are
considered. Different approaches lead to a probabilistic interpretation of
downscaled values. Applications include studies from soil science, geodesy,
agriculture and environmental modeling.
Rob Wilby (Environment Agency of England and Wales): Statistical
downscaling in practice: Recent applications and future directions
Abstract: After more than a decade of research activity the theoretical
strengths and weaknesses of statistically downscaling climate change
scenarios are now well understood. Technical issues, such as the choice of
predictor variables, transfer function(s), downscaling domain and treatment
of extremes, have been thoroughly explored through major international
projects. In contrast, examples of practical applications of statistical
downscaling to decision-making and adaptation are comparatively rare. This
presentation provides recent examples of how statistical downscaling is
being applied in practice to water sector adaptation measures. The case is
made for a greater emphasis on applied investigations, to help inform
adaptation responses, and to shape guidance for planners. Future research
priorities will be outlined, including the urgent need for tools to
facilitate the rapid production of regional climate change information, the
treatment of key sources of uncertainty, and links to emerging
probabilistic frameworks.
=====================================================================
Richard E. Chandler
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Room 135, Dept of Statistical Science, University College London,
1-19 Torrington Place, London WC1E 6BT, UK
Tel: +44 (0)20 7679 1880 Fax: +44 (0)20 7383 4703
Internet: http://www.ucl.ac.uk/Stats (department)
http://www.homepages.ucl.ac.uk/~ucakarc (personal)
email: [log in to unmask]
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