 |
 |
> The following information concerns a lecture and wine reception which we hope will be of interest to you - we would be delighted to see you there. Please do feel free to pass the invitation on to others who might also be interested. > > The Royal Institution and the Royal Statistical Society invite you to attend a public lecture > > Wednesday 21 June 2006 (1830 hrs) > > A 1hr talk by John Haigh followed by time for questions and discussion/your thoughts on ideas around probability > > (refreshments will be available from 1745 hrs and there will be a wine reception after the talk) > > The Royal Statistical Society > 12 Errol Street > London EC1Y 8LX > (nearest underground stations: Barbican, Old Street, Moorgate and Liverpool Street - see <http://www.rss.org.uk/PDF/RSSmap.pdf>) > > > Tickets cost £ 8.00 (£ 5.00 for Ri and RSS members). To book a place please visit http://www.rigb.org or call the Ri Events team on 020 7409 2992. Tickets will also be available on the door from 1745 hrs. > > ______________________________________________________________________________ > > > We cannot make correct decisions at every turn, but ideas of probability can help us make better decisions: we would rather be right two-thirds of the time, than only half the time. But humans seem to find it hard to reach sound conclusions, or even decide what information is relevant in many situations involving uncertainty. This talk will offer a number of examples where probability plays a role, and will seek to show how a logical approach can enable us to approach similar problems with confidence. The examples will be drawn from the following: how should we assess whether simple games of chance are fair to both players? what advice might be offered to players in certain TV game shows? how confident should we be of victory in a soccer match, if our team scores first? When passing through an unfamiliar town, how could we stop at the optimal place for lunch? when might we, with good reason, prefer medical treatment A over treatment B when B is neither more effective nor cheaper, and also produces a higher proportion of side-effects?> ...> ...> > ___________________________ > > John Haigh was born in Yorkshire, and benefited from a succession of talented and enthusiastic mathematics teachers. He has worked at Sussex University since 1966, with visiting spells at Melbourne, Stanford and Guelph. His research interests have been in the broad field of probability, with applications ranging from biology to various (theoretical) aspects of gambling. As well as over 50 articles in academic journals, he has written two books about probability. In 2005, jointly with Rob Eastaway, he wrote How to take a penalty an account of diverse ways in which mathematics can be applied to sport. >