From: INT-ADI [mailto:[log in to unmask]] Sent: 03 October 2006 12:51 To: int Subject: INT 485 IF YOU DON'T WANT TO RECEIVE FURTHER INT SUMMARIES, SEND US AN EMAIL. INTELLIGENCE ISSN 1245-2122 N. 485, 2 October 2006 Every Two to Three Weeks Next issue, 23 October 2006 Publishing since 1980 Editor Olivier Schmidt ([log in to unmask]; http://perso.wanadoo.fr/intelligence-adi) A one year subscription (19 issues with article index) is 330 euros. Reduced rates for personal subscriptions. Payment by credit card possible. TABLE OF CONTENTS, N. 485, 2 October 2006 FRONT PAGE ISRAEL - MILITARY & "TECH FIX" FAILURES IN GAZA & LEBANON p.1 TECHNOLOGY & TECHINQUES TIMELINE FROM 15 SEPTEMBER TO 29 SEPTEMBER p.2 ISRAELIS EXPORTING BORDER SECURITY EXPERTISE p.3 TINKERING DIEBOLD, TERRORISTS & PRIVACY p.4 PEOPLE USA - DAVID T. LYKKEN p.5 CANADA - MAHER ARAR p.6 GREAT BRITAIN - NIGEL SHEINWALD p.7 AGENDA COMING EVENTS THROUGH 15 DECEMBER 2006 p.8 INTELLIGENCE AROUND THE WORLD USA - CONGRESS-APPROVED TORTURE & SECRET DETENTION p.9 - NIE ON GLOBAL TERRORISM BECOMES POLITICAL p.10 - PROBLEMS FOR "RUMMY", DOD BUDGET & OTHER NEWS p.11 - CIA OUTSOURCING & OTHER NEWS p.12 - FBI "INTELLIGENCE SHARING" & OTHER NEWS p.13 GREAT BRITAIN - AIRCRAFT BOMB PLOT DEFLATES p.14 - PRIORITY ARMS SALES TARGETS p.15 ITALY - CIA KIDNAPPING HITS THE SISMI p.16 WESTERN EUROPE - BRITAIN, FRANCE, GERMANY & BELGIUM p.17 RUSSIA - US PRE-ELECTION SUBVERSION WARNING p.18 EASTERN EUROPE - HUNGARY & CAUCASUS p.19 LATIN AMERICA - "FALSE FLAG" MOSSAD OPERATION FAILURES p.20 - Mexico, Venezuela & Iran. p.21 ISRAEL - Interpol Changes Tel Aviv's Status. p.22 IRAQ - UK "GUNS FOR COKE" TRADE & TROOP MORALE p.23 - BUSH & BLAIR'S "MUTUAL CONVENIENCE" p.24 - FROM CIVIL WAR TO SPLIT UP OF THE COUNTRY p.25 IRAN - US MILITARY OPERATIONS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN p.26 MIDDLE EAST - Al-Qaida, the Pope & Turkey. p.27 AFGHANISTAN - "LOSING AFGHANISTAN" & MORE MORALE PROBLEMS p.28 ASIA - PAKISTAN, TALIBAN & THAILAND COUP p.29 --------------------------------------------- Intelligence, N. 485, 2 October 2006, p. 1 ISRAEL MILITARY & "TECH FIX" FAILURES IN GAZA & LEBANON The major media has traditionally avoided covering the failures of Israeli military and intelligence (see Latin America below), but this summer's invasions of the Gaza Strip and Lebanon seem to have changed that worldwide attitude. Now one can read that "Despite directly targeting Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasarallah and the organization's Al-Manar TV network with bombs and electronic warfare, Israel was unable to prevent the radical Shiite cleric from reaching his audience regularly" (0828 Defense News, Israel May Disrupt Commercial Broadcasts, Barbara Opall-Rome). The same article also uses the phrase "an unsuccessful five-week campaign to roust the Islamist group from southern Lebanon" to describe the Israeli invasion of Lebanon. Even Israel's highly-promoted electronic expertise (see Technology & Techniques below) took a serious hit. Hezbollah was reportedly able to conduct effective electronic intelligence gathering against the Israeli military's single channel ground-air system (SINCGARS) tactical radios. The intelligence apparently allowed Hezbollah to respond unexpectedly quickly to Israeli moves. Also, Israeli forces found sophisticated eavesdropping and jamming equipment in some Hezbollah positions they overran (0918 Newsday, Mohamad Bazzi and Aita Shaab). One can also read that Israel's "technology advance has not enabled the Israelis to avoid costly targeting missteps, or to suppress the Hezbollah rocket threat or pinpoint the adversary's weapons supplier" (0807 Aviation Week, Harsh Trajectories - Israel continues to attack Hezbollah's rocket arsenal, but larger and more destructive threats loom, Robert Wall, David A. Fulghum and Douglas Barrie). There are even admissions that the Israeli military "tech fix" strategy has reached its limits: "Despite intensive efforts over the past five years to locate and destroy terrorist tunnels, Israel's failure to thwart a recent subsurface cross- border attack has fueled ambivalence here over the prospects of ever achieving an effective defense against burrowing threats. ... The surprise [25 June Hamas] attack from the rear cost the lives of two IDF soldiers; another was taken captive and inestimable damage was done to Israeli deterrence and morale" (0710 Defense News, Israel Confronts Threat of Gaza Tunnels, Barbara Opall-Rome). (...cut...) --------------------------------------------- Intelligence, N. 485, 2 October 2006, p. 2 TIMELINE FROM 15 SEPTEMBER TO 29 SEPTEMBER In our preceding issue, we mentioned that "the Israeli invasion of Lebanon -- and of the Gaza Strip -- have all but disappeared from the headlines which have returned to the 'major ongoing developments' and continue to include: 'Bush White House policies concerning torture, kidnapping and secret detention ... [which have] resulted in some changes'; 'Pentagon problems with cases to murder and rape in Iraq ... [which] have continued to gain prominence in the US, resulting in several legal cases'; and 'open resistance by members of the military to Bush White House's war in Iraq ... [which] have reached a level where it can no longer be ignored by the major press'." The first and the third topics continue to be major news subjects. We also mentioned the "astonishing collection of false reports -- or should one say 'lies' -- put out by the Bush White House and allies ... [including] ABC's ideological fiction titled 'The Path to 9/11', the Senate Intelligence Committee report on the Bush White House's distortion of intelligence to push for an invasion of Iraq, the House Intelligence Committee's misleading and incorrect report on Iran's nuclear program, the hiring by the 'Washington Post' of pro-Bush, pro-war right-wing columnist Michael Gerson who has 'gotten it wrong' several times." There has been a serious decline in "false reports" as the Bush White House got down to "real business": countering the new classified US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) which states that the Iraq war has encouraged and increased terrorism, and passing the bills authorizing torture and indefinite secret imprisonment of any person the US president wants. Such bills were recently passed by the GOP-dominated House of Representatives and Senate. But neither of these two topics is the subject of our Front Page article which brings together a lot of the specialized information now being made available on the Israeli invasion of Lebanon and the difficulties of the Israeli armed forces in fighting the Hezbollah. And, as usual, the Israeli press has furnished some of the most critical information, such as Amir Oren's 18 September report in "Ha'aretz" confirming that an inquiry by Brig. Gen. Avi Ashkenazi found that Israeli military intelligence (Agaf ha-Modi'in or Aman) had solid intelligence on the planned capture of Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah some time before Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser were taken prisoner on 12 June. (...cut...) --------------------------------------------- AGENDA Intelligence, N. 485, 2 October 2006, p. 8 COMING EVENTS THROUGH 15 DECEMBER 2006 2-5 October, Colorado Springs, Colorado, 2006 Homeland Defense Symposium. 2-5 October, Destin, Florida, Obscurants 3006 Conference, obscurants2006.com. 3-5 October, Fort Huachuca, Arizona, AFCEA C4IST 2006. 3-7 October, Athens, Greece, Hellenic Ministry of Defence, Defendory International, defendoryinternational.gr. 4-5 October, Virginia Beach, Virginia, 11th Joint Warfare Conference. 5 October, Chicago, Pritzker Military Library, Thomas Ricks discusses his new book, "Fiasco - The American Military Adventure in Iraq". A complimentary wine and cheese reception will be held at 17h00 and the program will begin at 18h00. Email [log in to unmask] or Web pritzkermilitarylibrary.org/events/2006-10-05-thomasRicks.jsp. 4-6 October, Amsterdam, The Moral Dimension of Asymmetrical Warfare Conference. 4-7 October, New Rochelle, New York, International Information Management Association 17th Annual Conference, Triple Convergence - Information, Innovation, Technology, iima.org/. 9-11 October, Washington, Association of US Army, AUSA Annual 2006, ausa.org. 17-18 October, Wellington, New Zealand, Ninth Annual Defense Industry Association Seminar, [log in to unmask] 17-19 October, Laurel, Maryland, Precision Strike Technology Symposium, precisionstrike.org. 17-19 October, Kleve, Germany, Joint Air Power Competence Center Conference 2006, The Exploitation of Unmanned Aerospace Capabilities, japcc.de. 18-20 October, Toronto, International Association of Privacy Professionals, IAPP Privacy Academy 2006, privacyassociation.org. 18-22 October, Saoul, South Korea, Defense Asia 2006, [log in to unmask] 20-21 October, Lubbock, Texas, Vietnam Center, Texas Tech University and the Center for the Study of Intelligence (CSI) will co-host a conference on Intelligence in the Vietnam War, [log in to unmask] or vietnam.ttu.edu/vietnamcenter/events/. 20 October-1 November, Oshawa, Ontario, University of Ontario Institute of Technology, International Conference on Privacy, Security, and Trust (PST 2006), businessandit.uoit.ca/pst2006/. 22-25 October, Nimes, France, Infonortics, International Conference for Science & Business Information, infonortics.com. 23-26 October, Panama City Beach, Florida, NDIA 11th Annual Expeditionary Warfare Conference, ndia.org. 23-27 October, Paris Le Bourget, Euronaval 2006. 24 October, Arlington, Virginia, First Annual FAR/DFARS Review. 24-27 October, Willamsburg, Virginia, AHA & AAAA, Helicopter Military Operations (HELIMOT) Specialists' Meeting XII. 28 October, in Virginia, US Commission on Military History annual meeting with lecture speaker Tom Ricks, author of "Fiasco: The American Military Adventure in Iraq", [log in to unmask] 30 October-1 November, Panama City Beach, Florida, NDIA's 44th Annual Targets, UAVs & Range Operations meeting, ndia.org. 30 October-2 November, Athens, Greece, Internet Governance Forum (IGF), igfgreece2006.gr/. 31 October-5 November, Zhuhai, China, Airshow China 2006, airshow.com.cn. 1 November, deadline for papers for 22-23 August 2007 First Biennial Conference of Air Power Studies, Air Power, Insurgency and the "War on Terror", at Kings College, London, and at the Royal Air Force College, RAFC Cranwell, Lincolnshire, jhayward- [log in to unmask] 1-2 November, Crystal City, Virginia, Sixth Annual C4ISR Integration Conference, [log in to unmask] 2-3 November, London, 28th International Data Protection and Privacy Commissioners' Conference, privacyconference2006.co.uk/. 5-8 November, Washington, Association of Old Cross, AOC 2006. 5-9 November, Nellis Air Force Base, Nevada, National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, First Combined NSG Systems User's Conference. 11-12 November, Nellis Air Force Base, Nevada, Aviation Nation - America's Airshow, [log in to unmask] 14-16 November, Monterey, California, US Naval Postgraduate School, AIAA Missile Sciences Conference, aiaa.org/events/missilesciences. 27-30 November, Orlando, Florida, 25th Army Science Conference, asc2006.com. 11-15 December, Miami Beach, Florida, 22nd Annual Computer Security Applications Conference (ACSAC 2006), http://www.acsac.org. --------------------------------------------- Intelligence, N. 485, 2 October 2006, p. 9 USA CONGRESS-APPROVED TORTURE & SECRET DETENTION On 6 September, President George W. Bush admitted that the United States detains suspected terrorists in secret CIA-run prisons in foreign countries. He also announced that 14 persons held in these secret jails had been transferred to Guantanamo. Bush claimed that no other individuals were currently being held at CIA "black sites" but refused to disclose the location of said jails. Bush didn't act willingly, according to the "Financial Times" (0920, CIA "Refused to Operate" Secret Jails, Guy Dinmore): "The Bush administration had to empty its secret prisons and transfer terror suspects to the military-run detention centre at Guantanamo this month in part because CIA interrogators had refused to carry out further interrogations and run the secret facilities, according to former CIA officials and people close to the programme. The former officials said the CIA interrogators' refusal was a factor in forcing the Bush administration to act earlier than it might have wished." In short, the CIA, in "covering its ass", obliged Bush to act. On 14 September, Bush made an unaccustomed trip to the Hill to seek legislative permission for the CIA to make people disappear into secret prisons and have information extracted from them by means he dare not describe publicly but including "water-boarding", a well-known traditional method of torture. (...cut...) --------------------------------------------- Intelligence, N. 485, 2 October 2006, p. 14 GREAT BRITAIN AIRCRAFT BOMB PLOT DEFLATES The London aircraft bomb plot, which triggered overkill security measures at British airports in the second week of August, has been denounced by a former senior British intelligence officer, Nigel Wylde, as comprising a "pattern of lies and deceit". 22 British Moslems have been charged with a variety of alleged offenses under Britain's sprawling counter- terrorism legislation. The supposed plan involved the mixing of household chemicals to create an explosive to be detonated with a small, commercially available electronic device. (...cut...) --------------------------------------------- Intelligence, N. 485, 2 October 2006, p. 20 LATIN AMERICA "FALSE FLAG" MOSSAD OPERATION FAILURES On at least two occasion since the 11 September 2001 attacks in New York and Washington, the Israel foreign intelligence service, the Mossad, has tried and failed to carry out "false flag" terrorist operations in Central and South America. (...cut...) --------------------------------------------- <END OF FILE> -- This message has been scanned for viruses and dangerous content by the NorMAN <http://www.mailscanner.info/> MailScanner Service and is believed to be clean. The NorMAN MailScanner Service is operated by Information Systems and Services, Newcastle University. ==== This e-mail is intended solely for the addressee. It may contain private and confidential information. 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