Intelligence, N. 478, 1 May 2006, p. 14
USA
CIA RE-CLASSIFIES NON-SENSITIVE PUBLIC INFO
The leading CIA stories of the past three weeks concern the
secret
withdrawal of public documents from the National
Archives, the firing of
senior CIA officer Mary McCarthy, and
the revelations of another CIA officer,
Tyler Drumheller.
The CIA's National Archives "reclassification" scheme is of
particular
interest because it generated an investigation and a
re-evaluation of the
documents that the CIA had removed. If
secret removal of public documents
isn't shocking enough, then
how about one-third of those public documents --
"re-
classified" by the CIA which found they included information
that
could damage national security -- being reviewed and found
by the National
Archives to contain no sensitive information.
In short, for one third of the
documents the CIA took the
exceptional step of withdrawing from the public
had no reason
to be classified in the first place. Bets are now open as
to
what percent of "ordinarily-classified" CIA documents would
be
considered non-sensitive if the National Archives were allowed
to
review them: not many specialists are betting below fifty
percent.
0412 Progress Report, Administration Made Secret Agreement to
Hide
Reclassification Efforts
0418 NYT, National Archives Pact Let CIA Withdraw Public
Documents,
Scott Shane: The National Archives signed a secret
agreement in 2001 with the
Central Intelligence Agency
permitting the spy agency to withdraw from public
access
records it considered to have been improperly declassified,
the
head of the archives, Allen Weinstein, disclosed on Monday.
0421 EPIC, US Archives Had Reclassification Agreements With
CIA, Air
Force
0427 FAS, Archive Audit Suggests Overclassification Is Rampant;
"Secret"
1970 Intelligence Budget Revealed; House Limits Debate
on Largest
Intelligence Budget Ever.
0428 NYT, Archives audit criticizes re-classification of public
papers,
Scott Shane: An audit by the National Archives of more
than 25,000 historical
documents withdrawn from public access
since 1999 found that more than a
third did not contain
sensitive information justifying classification,
archives
officials said.
On 21 April, the press reported that senior CIA officer, Mary
McCarthy,
had been fired for her alleged role in leaking
information about CIA secret
prisons to the Washington Post's
Dana Priest (0421 ERRI, CIA Officer Fired
for Leaking
Classified Info to Media). But one of her former
colleague,
Larry Johnson, found the case smelled a little fishy (0422
TPM
Cafe, The Firing of Mary McCarthy, Larry Johnson). He argued
that,
from his experience of working with Ms. McCarthy, she
never was in a position
where she would have had first-hand
operational knowledge about secret
prisons. Other colleagues of
McCarthy have also backed her:
0423 NYT, Colleagues Say CIA Analyst Played by Rules, David S.
Cloud: In
1998, when President Bill Clinton ordered military
strikes against a
suspected chemical weapons factory in Sudan,
Mary O. McCarthy, a senior
intelligence officer assigned to the
White House, warned the president that
the plan relied on
inconclusive intelligence, two former government
officials
said.
0424 Newsweek, Secrets of the CIA - A former colleague says the
fired
Mary McCarthy "categorically denies" being the source of
the leak on agency
renditions, Mark Hosenball and Michael
Isikoff: A former CIA officer who was
sacked last week after
allegedly confessing to leaking secrets has denied she
was the
source of a controversial "Washington Post" story about
alleged
CIA secret detention operations in Eastern Europe, a friend of
the
operative told "Newsweek".
0425 AlterNet/TomPaine.com, Mary McCarthy's Tough Choice, Ray
McGovern:
With officials refusing to fulfill their oversight
duties, the CIA officer
was likely forced to choose between a
silence she would regret and being
punished for speaking out.
0525 TruthOut, McCarthyism: Mary and Joe, Ray McGovern: As
additional
information on the firing of CIA official Mary
McCarthy just ten days short
of her retirement becomes
available, what is afoot is becoming quite clear.
We are
witnessing a Stalinesque show trial sans the actual trial
and
inevitable execution. The purpose is intimidation, not
extermination.
We should be thankful for small favors, I
suppose.
The Mary McCarthy case did have enough time to settle before
Tyler
Drumheller's story hit the press: 0424 Progress Report,
Former CIA Chief Says
Bush Was Informed Prior to War that Iraq
Had No WMD.
0426 AlterNet, An Intel Story Finally Told - The shocking
account of
Tyler Drumheller, former top CIA spy in Europe,
aired Sunday on "60 Minutes."
So why isn't anyone talking about
it? Robert Scheer: Bush White House ignored
CIA intelligence on
Iraqi WMD.
0426 Creators Syndicate, Top Spy's Story on Pre-War Intel Is
Finally
Told, Robert Scheer: In fall 2004, during a crucial
presidential election
campaign, I made the mistake of playing
by corporate media rules that amount
to self-censorship.
Specifically, I joined other journalists in denying the
public
the right to learn of a definitive investigative report by CBS'
"60
Minutes" on President Bush's disregard for the truth
concerning the weapons
of mass destruction threat allegedly
posed to the United States by Iraq.
Having received an advance
copy of the devastating segment, I honored CBS'
proprietary
request not to write about the news it carried until after
it
aired.
Other CIA media reports include:
0407 FAS, DCIA Goss Invokes State Secrets Privilege
0420 WP, Intelligence Director's Budget May Near $1 Billion,
Report
Finds, Walter Pincus: The budget next year for National
Intelligence Director
John D. Negroponte's office and the
several agencies attached to it may be
near $1 billion or more,
according to language buried in the report of the
House
intelligence committee on the fiscal 2007 intelligence
authorization
bill.
0425 FAS, Foreign Influence, Israel and the Security
Clearance
Process
0425 FAS, ODNI Pursues Intelligence Compensation Reform: The
Office of
the Director of National Intelligence is attempting
to revamp the
compensation system for intelligence personnel to
emphasize "pay for
performance" rather than duration of
employment.
0426 Progress Report, Intelligence - Pat Roberts Leak
"Impaired" Hunt
for Saddam
0427 NYT, European Inquiry Says CIA Flew 1,000 Flights in
Secret, Dan
Bilefsky: Investigators for the European Parliament
said Wednesday that data
gathered from air safety regulators
and others found that the Central
Intelligence Agency had flown
1,000 undeclared flights over European
territory since 2001.
0428 CSM, Intelligence: Are the Taxpayers Getting What They Are
Paying
For? Gail Russell Chaddock
0428 FAS, Disfavored CIA Reports Placed Online: "US News and
World
Report" reported last January that at least three
publications of the CIA's
Center for the Study of Intelligence,
all critical of the agency, had been
withheld from the CIA web
site ("A Tangled Web Woven," by David E. Kaplan, US
News,
January 30, 2006). Now two of those disfavored publications
are
available on the Federation of American Scientists web site.
The third
will follow.
---------------------------------------------
Intelligence, N. 478, 1 May 2006, p. 15
USA
"PLAMEGATE" SLOWLY ENCIRCLES CHENEY & BUSH
On 6 April, a court filing disclosed that President
Bush
specifically authorized Vice President Cheney's chief of
staff
"Scooter" Libby to disclose classified information in an effort
to
discredit Iraq-invasion critique Joseph Wilson, the husband
of undercover CIA
officer Valerie Plame Wilson whose classified
identity was thus revealed. A
few days later, Special Counsel
Patrick J. Fitzgerald for the first time
described a "concerted
action" by "multiple people in the White House" -
using
classified information - to "discredit, punish or seek
revenge
against" a critic of President Bush's war in Iraq. On 19 April,
a
grand jury in Washington was told it would soon receive a
list of criminal
charges against Karl Rove and be asked to
return a multi-count
indictment.
0406 FAS, Bush Authorized Disclosure of NIE to NY Times' Miller
0406 Progress Report, Bush Gave Specific Permission to Leak
Plame's
Identity
0407 Progress Report, National Security - Leaker-In-Chief;
Bush
Authorized Leaking Despite Repeated Assurances to the Contrary;
Bush
Was Involved in the Campaign to Smear Wilson; NIE
Bolstered Wilson's
Argument; Bush Administration's Defense Full
of Leaky Holes; Case Against
Libby Not Affected.
0407 REU, White House Does Not Dispute Bush Leak Allegation,
Steve
Holland: The White House on Friday chose not to challenge
a prosecutor's
disclosure that President George W. Bush
authorized top official Lewis
"Scooter" Libby to disclose
intelligence on Iraq in 2003, as Libby
alleges.
0408 AP, Leak-Hating President as Leaker-in-Chief? Tom Raum:
After long
denouncing leaks of all kinds, Bush is confronted
with a statement -
unchallenged by his aides - that he
authorized a leak of classified material
to undermine an Iraq
war critic.
0408 TruthOut, Bush and Cheney Not in the Clear Yet, John Dean:
Despite
Libby's implications of Bush, John Dean argues that he
is still protected by
Cheney by dissecting Libby's statements
regarding the president as clearly
hearsay: Libby was repeating
to the grand jury what he claims Cheney told
him.
0409 WP, A "Concerted Effort" to Discredit Bush Critic -
Prosecutor
describes Cheney, Libby as key voices pitching Iraq-
Niger story, Barton
Gellman and Dafna Linzer: Special Counsel
Fitzgerald drew back the curtain
this week on the evidence
against Vice President Cheney's former top
aide.
0410 Progress Report, Leaker-In-Chief Confirmed, Bush Owes
Specific
Explanation About His Role
0410 TruthOut, Bush and Cheney Discussed Plame Prior to Leak,
Jason
Leopold: In early June 2003, Vice President Dick Cheney
met with President
Bush and told him that CIA officer Valerie
Plame Wilson was the wife of Iraq
war critic Joseph Wilson and
that she was responsible for sending him on a
fact-finding
mission to Niger to check out reports about Iraq's attempt
to
purchase uranium from the African country, according to current
and
former White House officials and attorneys close to the
investigation to
determine who revealed Plame-Wilson's
undercover status to the media.
0411 ERRI, President Bush Admits Releasing Intelligence
Documents
0411 NYT, With One Filing, Prosecutor Puts Bush in Spotlight,
David E.
Sanger and David Johnston: From the early days of the
CIA leak investigation
in 2003, the Bush White House has
insisted there was no effort to discredit
Joseph C. Wilson IV,
the man who emerged as the most damaging critic of
the
administration's case that Saddam Hussein was seeking to build
nuclear
weapons. But now White House officials, and
specifically President Bush and
Vice President Dick Cheney,
have been pitched back into the center of the
nearly three-year
controversy, this time because of a prosecutor's court
filing
in the case that asserts there was "a strong desire by
many,
including multiple people in the White House," to undermine
Mr.
Wilson.
0420 Progress Report, Rove Will Not Give Up Security Clearance
Despite
Ending Policy Role
0420 TruthOut, Grand Jury Hears Evidence Against Rove, Jason
Leopold:
The grand jury session yesterday in federal court in
Washington, DC, sources
close to the case said, was the first
time this year that Special Prosecutor
Fitzgerald told the
jurors that he would soon present them with a list of
criminal
charges he intends to file against Karl Rove in hopes of
having
the grand jury return a multi-count indictment. In an
interview
with Jason Leopold on Wednesday, Rove's attorney, Robert
Luskin,
confirmed that Rove remains a "subject" of Fitzgerald's
two-year-old
probe.
0427 AP, Judge Won't Dismiss Case Against Libby, Toni Locy: A
federal
judge refused Thursday to dismiss charges against I.
Lewis "Scooter" Libby,
the former top White House aide who was
indicted on perjury and obstruction
charges last year in the
CIA leak scandal. In a 31-page opinion, US District
Judge
Reggie B. Walton turned down a motion by lawyers for Vice
President
Dick Cheney's one-time top assistant, who challenged
the authority of Special
Counsel Patrick Fitzgerald to handle
the case.
---------------------------------------------
Intelligence, N. 478, 1 May 2006, p. 16
USA
REPUBLICANS IN CONGRESS KEEP "SNOOPGATE" ALIVE
The Bush White House's "snoopgate" warrantless eavesdropping on
US
citizens now has two active Republican adversaries in
Congress. The House of
Representatives, it's chairman of the
House Judiciary Committee Rep. James
Sensenbrenner (R-Wis.) and
in the Senate it's Senate Judiciary Committee
chairman Arlen
Specter. On 6 April, Sensenbrenner pointedly
criticized
Attorney General Alberto Gonzales for "stonewalling"
by
refusing to answer questions about the Bush
administration's
eavesdropping program. On 27 April, Specter said he
was
considering legislation to cut off funding for the
Bush
administration's wiretapping program until he gets
satisfactory
answers about it from the White House. As if this were
not
enough, in San Francisco, a a former AT&T worker, Mark Klein,
is
cooperating in the Electronic Frontier Foundation's lawsuit
against the
company and claiming that AT&T secretly worked had
in hand with the NSA
in "snoopgate".
0406 AP, Gonzales Draws Criticism From Panel Chief: Rep.
James
Sensenbrenner, R-Wis., said Gonzales was frustrating his
panel's
oversight of the Justice Department and the
controversial surveillance by
declining to provide information
about how the program is reviewed inside the
administration and
by whom.
0406 EPIC, Congress Continues to Scrutinize Warrantless
Surveillance
Program
0407 Wired News, Whistle-Blower Outs NSA Spy Room, Ryan Singel:
AT&T
provided NSA eavesdroppers with full access to its
customers' phone calls,
and shunted its customers' internet
traffic to data-mining equipment
installed in a secret room in
its San Francisco switching center, according
to a former AT&T
worker [Mark Klein] cooperating in the Electronic
Frontier
Foundation's lawsuit against the company.
0412 Wired, AT&T Seeks to Hide Spy Docs, Ryan Singel: AT&T
is
seeking the return of technical documents presented in a
lawsuit that
allegedly detail how the telecom giant helped the
government set up a massive
internet wiretap operation in its
San Francisco facilities.
0427 AP, Senator Specter Threatens to Block NSA Funds,
Laurie
Kellman
0428 Progress Report, Specter Expresses Outrage over NSA Spying
Program
as House Votes against Transparency
---------------------------------------------
Intelligence, N. 478, 1 May 2006, p. 17
GREAT BRITAIN
THE DOMESTIC TERRORIST THREAT
A British government's "narrative" of the 7 July 2005
coordinated
attacks on London's transport system, in which 56
people died, including the
four suicide bombers, was compiled
by a senior civil servant on the
instructions of the Home
Secretary, Charles Clarke. The first draft of that
report was
recently leaked to the press. According to the report,
the
attacks were a "simple and inexpensive" plot, carried out by
four
alienated British Muslims with no international terrorist
connections.
The narrative, which is due to be published within the next
month with
the Commons Intelligence and Security Committee
(ISC) report (INT, n. 477 21)
rejects initial media claims that
a "Qaida mastermind" had played a key role
in planning the
attacks on the three underground commuter trains and the No.
31
double-decker bus. A VTR of Mohammed Siddique Khan, the Leeds-
born
ringleader of the operation, was released after the
attacks and contained
footage of Ayman al-Zawahri, an
individual often described as Osama bin
Laden's "deputy".
However, the Home Office believes the video tape was
edited
after the bombings and rejects it as "evidence" of a
Qaida
connection. The bombers had no bomb-making training; what they
knew
they learned after trawling the Internet for information
on home-made
explosive devices, and their rucksack bombs cost
only a few hundred pounds.
The narrative also rejects the
existence of a fifth bomber, despite a
nationwide manhunt after
a unused rucksack bomb was found in a car left at
Luton, from
where the four men traveled by train to London's King's
Cross
station.
The bombers were inspired by Mohammed Khan's trip to Pakistan,
which was
described as "ideological rather than fact-finding".
The suicide quartet --
Khan, Shehzad Tanweer, Hasib Hussain and
Jermaine Lindsay -- enjoyed a
"Western lifestyle", but they
were radicalized and motivated by Western
foreign policy in the
Muslim world, including Britain's role in the invasion
and
occupation of Iraq -- a view which Prime Minister Tony Blair
has
consistently tried to undermine and discredit -- and were
also driven "by the
promise of immortality."
The Home Office narrative -- based on psychological profiling
and
intelligence compiled over a nine month period since last
July -- doesn't
address the issue of why MI5 failed to keep
track of Mohammed Khan after he
had been identified months
before the attacks in the company of radical
Islamists
suspected of planning acts of terrorism in Britain, one of
the
criticisms made by MPs in the ISC report. This omission is
likely to
be one of the points raised when Clarke presents his
narrative to Parliament
before the first anniversary of the
attacks, accompanied by details of how
security has been
tightened since then, including extra MI5 and MI6
officers,
increased uniform patrols, CCTV cameras and scanning
technology
at several of London's underground stations, and a
more
transparent official public warning system for the threat posed
by a
terrorist attack. Under the current system, the threat
level is set on the
advice given by MI5 and appears in the
entrance halls of public buildings,
government departments and
the transport network. In future, the threat level
will be
determined by the Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre (JTAC).
"Clear
and concise" details will be made available to local and
national media, will
be posted on government Web sites, and
will cover the complete UK
infrastructure.
MI5 has also carried out a "terrorist audit" of Britain
following last
July's bombings, and the figure of 400 terrorist
suspects at large in the UK
is double the number which the
former Metropolitan Police Commissioner, John
Stevens, claimed
had the potential to carry out attacks, prior to his
retirement
in January 2005. Details of the assessment were given by
the
City of London Police Commissioner, James Hart, a member of
the
security committee responsible for protecting the capital from
attack,
who warned that the shortage of trained surveillance
teams was undermining
attempts to keep London safe.
The City of London -- also referred to as the "financial square
mile" --
was a prime target for the Provisional IRA which
managed to breach tight
security on several occasions in the
1990s with spectacular results, causing
few civilian casualties
(because adequate warnings had been given to the
authorities)
but billions of pounds in blast damage and loss of
trade.
Commissioner Hart is not optimistic that no-warning Qaida
attacks
can be prevented: "With about 400 terrorist suspects it
required a great deal
of resources to investigate them. You
simply have to make intelligence
guesses about who to watch.
It's a bit of a lottery."
COMMENT -- Despite increased funding to open regional
offices
in Manchester, Liverpool, Leeds, Birmingham and Glasgow, and
to
recruit several hundred additional personnel, MI5 still claims
it
hasn't the resources to adequately monitor the "hard core"
of trained
fighters who have returned from bomb-making courses
and training camps in
Pakistan and Afghanistan, or the
potential Islamic extremists "on the
fringes" of the 400 who
could become "active terrorists" at any point. The
Association
of Chief Police Officers (ACPO) also claims that police
forces
throughout Britain are being "hindered" by the lack of money
being
put into counter-terrorism.
---------------------------------------------
Intelligence, N. 478, 1 May 2006, p. 18
GREAT BRITAIN
FIFTH SPECIAL FORCES UNIT OPERATIONAL
A new British Army unit, the 1,200-strong Special Forces
Support
Group (SFSG), became fully operational in mid-April.
The unit, consisting of
Royal Air Force (RAF) freefall experts,
Royal Marine commandos, and members
of the Parachute Regiment,
was commissioned to support the Special Air
Service (SAS) and
the Special Boat Squadron (SBS). It will be based at RAF
St.
Athan, near Cardiff in Wales, and will be under the control of
Hugh
Kernohan, Director of Special Forces Section, at the
Ministry of Defence
(MoD), in London. The SFSG will train with
the SAS and the SBS, and will
specialize in diversionary
tactics, supporting firepower and defensive cordon
protection
around SAS and SBS operations. It will also support
the
Metropolitan Police and regional police forces in anti-
terrorist
situations considered "so physically dangerous that
[the police] need
assistance from the Army", according to the
MoD.
The SFPG is the fifth British special forces unit. The four
others are
the SAS, the SBS, the Special Reconnaissance
Regiment (SRR), which carries
out covert intelligence-gathering
operations using HUMINT sources, and the 18
(UKSF) Signals
Regiment, which specializes in SIGINT and ELINT tasks. The
SFSG
will have high-tech computerized satellite communications
equipment
allowing it to download GCHQ and MI6 intelligence. It
will also have SOFLAM
laser marking systems designed to direct
the RAF to designated targets. All
serving SFSG personnel will
be allowed to retain the cap badges of their
original
regiments. However, the new shoulder emblem, a silver
dagger
(also used in SAS and SBS badges) pierced by a red-lined
black
lightening flash on a green background, bears more than a
passing
resemblance to the insignia of Reichsfuhrer Heinrich
Himmler's Schutzstaffel
- more commonly known as the SS.
COMMENT -- The selection process for the SFSG is expected
to
be far more strict and intrusive than that for the SRR, which
was
created by the former Defense Secretary, Geoff Hoon, in
2004. Based in
Hereford, the SRR initially used personnel --
many of whom were veterans of
the Northern Ireland campaign --
from the Intelligence Corps, the SAS, and
14th Intelligence
Company. In less than 18 months, the regiment has been
involved
in two politically controversial incidents. Last July,
SRR
officers were among the plain-clothes "watchers" who
followed
Brazilian electrician Jean Charles de Menezes to
Stockwell
Underground station in London where he was shot dead by
SAS-
trained SO19 police officers after being wrongly identified as
a
suspected suicide bomber (INT, n. 464 1).
On 19 September, following a gun battle in Basra, Iraq, in
which two
Iraqi policemen died, two SRR operatives (initially
identified as members of
the SAS), using an unmarked civilian
vehicle and dressed as local Arabs, were
arrested by Iraqi
police after being caught in possession of weapons and
bomb-
making equipment. What began as a "special forces covert
operation"
quickly deteriorated into a high-profile
international fiasco when the O/C of
British forces in southern
Iraq, Brigadier John Lorimer, ordered soldiers to
storm the
jail where the SRR men were being held after negotiations
to
secure their release failed. The two "covert operatives" have
since
returned to Britain, despite an arrest warrant issued by
Judge Raghib Hassan
al-Muthafar in connection with the death of
the (British-trained) Iraqi
police officers (INT, n. 466 29).
---------------------------------------------
Intelligence, N. 478, 1 May 2006, p. 19
GREAT BRITAIN
AFGHAN WARS
The British Defence Secretary, Dr. John Reid, has ordered the
Royal
Military Police (RMP) to investigate the leaking of a
classified tactical
document from the Permanent Joint
Headquarters in Northwood, Middlesex, which
was published in
the "Sunday Telegraph" on 16 April. Titled "Deep
Manoeuvre
Effect", the document formed part of a presentation to
Royal
Marine officers due to be deployed in October to Helmand
province,
the Taliban stronghold near the Afghanistan border
with Pakistan, where there
are currently just under 1,000
British troops (plus about 70 members of the
SAS working
alongside US Special Forces in the hunt for the elusive
Osama
bin Laden). This figure will increase to 3,300 when the army
base,
Camp Bastion, is completed. A further 1,000 military
personnel are based in
Kabul under the command of General Sir
David Richards.
According to the Sunday Telegraph's report, British troops will
be
expected to "find and track insurgents, interdict and
disrupt opposition
sanctuaries and locations and (eventually)
defeat (the enemy)." This,
according to a defense sources
quoted by the newspaper, is an accurate
description of a "seek
and destroy" mission. The problem for the British
government is
that this description is at odds with the assurances given
by
Reid in the House of Commons that British troops are not going
to
Afghanistan to "wage war or carry out seek and destroy
operations" [as part
of "Enduring Freedom", the US-led anti-
terrorism mission], but to be
involved in the "reconstruction
of Afghanistan by multinational forces."
British soldiers will
not take part in counter-terrorist operations but will
take
part in counter-insurgency operations to defend themselves
against
attack, according to Reid.
The Conservative Party has now threatened to withdraw
bipartisan
political support for the British mission because
the Defence Secretary's
statements to MPs are at "variance with
the nature of the mission being
carried out by British troops",
according to the Tory defence spokesman, Liam
Fox, MP. The
"Sunday Telegraph", which is the "publication of choice"
for
serving and retired Army officers, claims that personnel at
Northwood
HQ are now "confused" as to the exact difference
between an insurgent and a
terrorist. According to a senior
Royal Marine officer, the government may
choose to "draw a
distinction" between an insurgent and a terrorist, "but to
us,
they are all the same" and all commanders going to Afghanistan
over
the next 18 months "are training their troops to conduct
offensive operations
against insurgents."
Reid's parliamentary and public statements about helping to
reconstruct
the Afghan economy and build democracy -- which he
repeated when he arrived
at Kabul Airport on 23 April -- are to
reassure the electorate that Britain's
mission is benign and
altruistic. He has also been accused of trying to "hide
the
truth" about attacks on British troops because, if the Afghan
mission
"turns sour", it will "bring down" Prime Minister
Blair. There have been two
unreported attempted suicide attacks
on the British provincial reconstruction
unit in Lashkar Gar,
the capital of Helmand province. This surge of violence
against
British troops began in early April with the wounding of
three
soldiers by a roadside IED (improvised explosive device)
similar to
those first used by the Provisional IRA in South
Armagh in the late 1980s,
and more recently (using improved
technology) by insurgents in southern
Iraq.
Even without the full British contribution of 3,300 to the
9,000-strong
NATO International Special Assistance Force (ISAF)
-- including the Royal
Marines, the 16th Air Assault Brigade,
the 3rd Battalion Parachute Regiment,
a recce squadron of
Household Cavalry Scimitar and Spartan armored vehicles,
a
battery of light guns from the Royal Horse Artillery, supported
by
Apache attack helicopters and Desert Hawk UAVs from the 32nd
Regiment, Royal
Artillery -- a request for an addition 600
troops has been rejected by Reid
who has been accused by
Ministry of Defence (MoD) officials of trying to
micro-manage
the Afghan operation. An MoD civil servant, quoted in a
recent
"Sunday Times" report, refers to an "arrogance and control-
freak
mentality that has resulted in the military hardly being
able to move without
the minister's team knowing about it and
approving it first."
On 25 April, after MPs on the cross-party Commons Select
Defence
Committee expressed "deep concern" at plans to withdraw
six RAF Harrier GR7
jump jets, the MoD announced that the
aircraft, from No. 1 (Fighter)
Squadron, at RAF Cottesmore,
which are currently based at Kandahar and were
due to be
replaced next month by Dutch F-16 fighters, will remain
in
Afghanistan for at least a year. Defense analysts had told
the
committee that "inaccessible areas" of Helmand province
(approximately
9,000 square kilometers of mountains, desert,
and plains) can be reached far
quicker by the Harriers than by
Dutch or US fighters.
---------------------------------------------
Intelligence, N. 478, 1 May 2006, p. 20
GREAT BRITAIN
SOCA TROUBLE, CIA FLIGHTS & KENDALL-SMITH
A former SAS commander, Lieutenant General Sir Cedric Delves,
has
been asked to take charge of intelligence operations
carried out by the
Serious Organised Crime Agency (SOCA) and to
provide "a structured
leadership" following reports that
tensions have arisen among the 4,200
personnel, which include
detectives from the National Criminal Intelligence
Service
(NCIS) and the National Crime Squad (NCS), MI5 officers and
HM
Customs & Excise (HMCE) drug investigators and Immigration
Service
(IS) staff. Other senior military officers who are
close to retirement have
also been asked by the Home Office to
provide management expertise, according
to a Ministry of
Defence (MoD) source, who described the move as "a sign
of
desperation" by the Home Secretary, Charles Clarke, because
SOCA -- one
of the Labour government's flagship law-and-order
reforms -- cannot find the
experts within its own ranks.
On 5 April, a report published by Amnesty International in
London,
titled "Below the Radar: Secret Flights to Torture and
Disappearance", has
called on the British government to set up
an independent inquiry into more
than 200 CIA "extraordinary
rendition" flights which have used British
airports over the
past five years. The airports listed include Gatwick,
Stansted,
and Luton in the south east, Glasgow, Preswick and Edinburgh
in
Scotland, Derry and Belfast in Northern Ireland, RAF Brize
Norton in
Oxfordshire and Biggin Hill in Kent, RAF Leuchars in
Scotland, as well as
facilities at the British overseas
territory, the Turks and Caicos islands,
in the Caribbean. The
British Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw, has claimed that
the US
administration would not transport detainees through the UK
without
permission. On two occasions, requests for rendition
clearance from the
Clinton administration had been refused by
the Foreign Office, and there was
no evidence that the Bush
administration had asked.
Flight Lieutenant Malcolm Kendall-Smith, the RAF doctor who
refused to
return to Iraq last year for a third tour of duty,
because he considered the
2003 invasion and occupation a
"campaign of imperial conquest" by the US
after reading legal
opinions and international law on conflict while on home
leave
INT, n. 477 6), has been jailed for eight-months, and dismissed
from
the air force. On 13 April, he was found guilty by a court
martial panel of
five RAF officers, presided over by Judge
Advocate Jack Bayliss, at Aldershot
military base, of
"calculated and deliberate disobedience" of five direct
orders
regarding deployment to Basra. He was also ordered to pay a
fine of
$20,000 towards the defense costs. He was taken to
Colchester military prison
for a medical examination and a
"period of demilitarization" before serving
four months in a
civilian prison and the remainder under licence.
Passing
sentence, Judge Advocate Bayliss said: "Those who wear the
Queen's
uniform cannot pick and choose which orders they obey
and those who do so
must face the consequences."
---------------------------------------------
Intelligence, N. 478, 1 May 2006, p. 21
NETHERLANDS
DYING FOR DOPE
A 50-year-old Dutch businessman and alleged drugs trafficker,
Thomas
van der Bijl, became the latest victim of the
internecine feud which has
decimated the Dutch hardcore
criminal fraternity. He was shot dead by gunmen
in De Hallen, a
cafe he owned on the corner of Willem de Zwijgerlaan and
Jan
van Galenstraat in West Amsterdam, at 08h45 on 20 April. Van
der Bijl
had been released from custody a week earlier after
being held in connection
with the distribution of cannabis,
shipped from Morocco, and
locally-manufactured XTC, which was
stored in containers in several
warehouses throughout Holland
before being transported to Britain, France and
Scandinavia.
According to the Criminele Inlichtingen Eenheid (CIE)
criminal
intelligence unit, the illegal drug traffic involved
two
organizations: one supplying the European market from North
Africa;
and Van der Bijl's European distribution network which
included Dutch,
French, Spanish and Moroccan dealers. Following
a 28 March series of
coordinated raids, the police arrested 11
people, including Van der Bijl, and
seized more than 32,000
kilos of cannabis resin in polythene-wrapped packages
and worth
approximately 100 million euros, including 7,000 kilos hidden
in
a French-registered HGV in south Holland, and 23,000 kilos
in a warehouse in
Bavel, near Breda.
Van der Bijl was a "known associate" of property developer Kees
Houtman,
shot dead outside his villa in Osdorp, near Amsterdam,
on 2 November 2005,
and also of Houtman's business partner,
John Mieremet, who has murdered the
same day at his office in
Bang-Lamung, a seaside resort near Pattaya,
Thailand. (INT, n.
468 21). Both killings were linked to the murder of
Willem
Endstra, one of the Holland's wealthiest businessmen (INT, n.
441
19), once described as "the banker to the underworld",
who
reinvested/white-washed "dirty money" for some of the country's
top
crime bosses, including Willem Holleeder, the convicted
kidnapper of brewery
Freddy Heineken. Van der Bijl, according
to "Intelligence" sources, supplied
the vehicles used by
Holleeder and his accomplice, Cor van Hout, who was
eventually
shot dead in Amstelveen on 24 January 2003 after
two
unsuccessful attempts on his life in March 1996 and
December
2000.
Willem Holleeder, who is currently in police custody on
extortion
charges, is now regarded as the key figure in
Europe's most enduring drug war
which dates back to the 27 June
1991 contract killing of Klaas Bruinsma
outside the Hilton
Hotel in South Amsterdam. The fact that Holleeder is the
"last
man standing" among the major crime bosses suggests, according
to
police sources, that he ordered many of the twenty-five
contract killings
dating back to the mid-1990s. This allegation
was first made by Endstra in a
statement to detectives in 2003,
which was leaked to the Amsterdam newspaper,
"Het Parool", in
mid-March. Holleeder's lawyer, Bram Moszkowicz, has
dismissed
the allegations as an attempt by the authorities to "close
the
files" on more than two dozen unsolved killings.
The police have refused to comment on reports that Van der Bijl
was the
third "anonymous witness" who was due to testify
against Holleeder during a
pre-trial hearing on 26 April at the
high-security criminal courthouse in
Osdorp.
---------------------------------------------
Intelligence, N. 478, 1 May 2006, p. 22
WESTERN EUROPE
BRITAIN, FRANCE & ITALY
0409 Telegraph, Royal Marines Pour Scorn on New Army Commandos
0410 WP, French Government Withdraws Controversial Job Law,
Molly
Moore
0411 BBC, Centre-Left Claims Italy Victory
0412 ERRI, Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi Refuses to
Concede
Defeat
- IND, RAF Doctor [Flight Lieutenant Malcolm
Kendall-Smith]
Refused to Fight "Illegal" Iraq War, Kim Sengupta
0413 ERRI, Police Arrest Three People Accused of Hiding Italian
Mafia
Boss [Bernardo Provenzano]
- NTR, Italian Minister Declines to Seek
Extradition of CIA
Operatives, Peter Kiefer
- TruthOut, Italy Will
Withdraw Its Troops From Iraq
0414 IND, Prisoner of Conscience - RAF Doctor Who Refused Iraq
Service
Is Jailed - Doctor, RAF officer, And now war criminal,
Flt. Lt. Malcolm
Kendall-Smith was yesterday jailed for
refusing to serve in Iraq, Kim
Sengupta
- REU, Crunch Weeks Ahead for Europe's CIA Probes
0415 Le Monde, Seven CIA Flights Went Through France, Natalie
Nougayrede
and Piotr Smolar
0420 ERRI, French Police Find Homemade Bomb in High-Speed Rail
Line
-
ERRI, Police Arrest Seven in Anti-Terror Raids in Italy and
France
- WP,
For Berlusconi, Defeat Isn't End of the Campaign, Ian
Fisher
0424 ERRI, Terror raids net 12 GSPC in France and Italy
0428 NYT, Blair cabinet wobbles under trio of troubles, Sarah
Lyall:
Three embarrassing problems; Home Secretary Charles
Clarke's release of 1,023
convicted foreign nationals; Deputy
Prime Minister John Prescott's affair
with his secretary,
Tracey Temple; Health Secretary Patricia Hewitt's
failing
National Health Service and two public meetings during which
she
was shouted down.
---------------------------------------------
Intelligence, N. 478, 1 May 2006, p. 23
RUSSIA
PROLIFERATION PROPAGANDA
On 11 April, the Russian Defense Minister, Sergei Ivanov
told
members of the Cabinet that he was in possession of a
Defense
Ministry list of 1,152 foreign companies in 51
countries,
suspected of contributing to the proliferating of weapons
of
mass destruction. He warned Russian companies to be
"particularly
cautious and circumspect when it comes to
communications and trade" with the
firms identified.
The person and the timing of this warning are noteworthy.
Ivanov is the
man most likely to succeed President Vladmir
Putin in 2008 following his
appointment, by presidential
decree, as head of Permanent Defense Industry
Commission (INT,
n. 477 7). As for timing, Ivanov's statement came two
days
before the 13 April meeting in Moscow of the G-8 working group
on the
non-proliferation of nuclear weapons.
Ivanov's list was compiled by senior Defense Ministry officials
from
information provided by the Foreign Ministry, the
Federalnaya luzhba
Bezopasnosti (FSB) federal security service,
the Sluzhba Vnesheny Razvedki
(SVR) foreign intelligence
service and the Glavnoye Razvedyvatelnoye
Upravleniye (GRU)
main military intelligence directorate. Ivanov, who is also
a
deputy prime minister, told the Cabinet meeting, attended by
President
Putin, that Russian firms will have to obtain a
licence from the PDIC if they
intended to do business with the
foreign companies on the Defense Ministry
list. There will also
be increased controls on end-user certificates and on
the
export of dual-use technologies and products.
The list will also help PDIC officials compile a report on
Russia's
efforts to tackle WMD proliferation, ahead of the G-8
summit which will be
held in St. Petersburg in July. Ivanov
rejected as "nonsensical" criticism
that the list and the
forthcoming PDIC report were a part of a "damage
limitation
exercise" to counter US and EU criticism that Russian
companies
have been exporting sensitive technologies to "rogue states"
for
more than a decade -- in particular Iran, where Russian
technology and
technicians have played a crucial part in Iran's
nuclear program.
---------------------------------------------
Intelligence, N. 478, 1 May 2006, p. 24
EASTERN EUROPE
RUSSIA, GEORGIA & CHECHNYA
0404 RFE, Georgian Parliament Begins Work on New Laws to
Curb
Police
0406 RFE, Chechen Resistance Leader [Abdul-Khalim Sadullayev]
Chronicles
Military Successes; Admits Losses
- RFE, Georgian Human Rights Activists
Advocate Special
Commission to Investigate High-Profile Crimes
0411 RFE, Two Militants Killed in Shoot-Out in Ingushetia; Dead
Militant
Identified in Daghestan [war lord Makhach Rasulov, aka
Yasin]
0412 RFE, UN Official [High Commissioner for Refugees Antonio
Guterres]
Calls for Strengthening Law and Order in Chechnya
0413 RFE, Bulava Missile Tests to Resume in June [Russia]
0417 CSM, Russia, US Slipping into Familiar "Chill?" - Moscow -
Call it
cold war II, the sequel, Fred Weir
0418 RFE, Militant Commander Reportedly Killed in Daghestan
[Radjab
Guseinov]
0419 RFE, Russia Protests Private US Conference [conference on
the
northern Caucasus held on 14 April by the Jamestown
Foundation]
0421 RFE, Primakov Warns of Troubles Ahead for Russia, Paul
Goble:
Yevgeny Primakov, a man with many years of experience at
or near the top of
the Soviet and Russian governments, warns
that demographic trends, the
upcoming electoral cycle, and
declining Western interest in Moscow point to
serious problems
ahead for his country.
- RFE, Russian Minister Warns
NATO
0425 RFE, Transneft Threatens to Cut Oil Supplies to "Overfed"
Europe;
As Rosneft Toots Its Horn; Amid Calls for Greater
Transparency; And for
Reflection.
0426 RFE, Gazprom Calls European Energy Charter "Stillborn" -
But UK
Disagrees
- RFE, US Warns Against Russian Monopoly on Europe's
Gas
Supplies
- UN, Rice warns against Russia controlling European
energy
market
0428 Progress Report, Russian-Iran Missile Deal Should Be Cause
for
Alarm
---------------------------------------------
Intelligence, N. 478, 1 May 2006, p. 25
LATIN AMERICA
VENEZUELA & COLOMBIA
0404 RFE, Venezuelan President Says Russian Helicopters to help
in
"War of Resistance" [MI-type military helicopters]
0405 UN/NYT, Chavez pushing leftist agenda by opening wallet
0408 AP, Venezuelans Pelt US Ambassador's Car: The US
ambassador to
Venezuela has grown used to facing protests and
shouts of "Yankee go home!"
But supporters of President Hugo
Chavez appeared to cross the line when they
pelted his car with
eggs and tomatoes, then chased after his convoy on
motorcycles.
- ERRI, US accuses Venezuela over Assault; Motorcyclists
Chased
the US Embassy Convoy For at Least 10 minutes
0409 ERRI/WT, Venezuela Courting Iran on Nuclear and Weapons
Deals
[Washington Times and Rowan Scarborough]
- IND, Women and Jobless Armed by
Chavez to Resist "US
Invasion", Andrew Buncombe: The President of Venezuela,
Hugo
Chavez, is recruiting and training a people's militia to help
lead a
"war of resistance" against what he claims is the threat
of a US invasion.
Housewives, students, construction workers
and the unemployed are being
recruited for the country's
Territorial Guard.
0411 ERRI, Venezuelan President Threatens to Expel US
Ambassador
0413 ERRI, Colombian ELN to Discuss Possible Arms Handover
0418 IND, Death Squad Allegations Threaten to Derail Bush's
Last Latin
Ally - Colombia's leader denies using death squads
to wipe out opponents,
Daniel Howden: Alvaro Uribe's procession
to a second term as Colombia's
President hit a stumbling block
yesterday as he responded wildly to
allegations that his
government colluded with paramilitaries to kill
civilians.
---------------------------------------------
Intelligence, N. 478, 1 May 2006, p. 26
AFRICA - Sudan, Algeria & Nigeria.
0404 UN, Sudan blocks Egeland
tour of Darfur [United Nations
Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian
Affairs Jan Egeland]
0408 ERRI, Algeria - At Least 13 Dead Following Ambush
of
Customs Convoy
0418 ERRI, Fourteen Killed at Robbers Roadblock in
Nigeria
---------------------------------------------
Intelligence, N. 478, 1 May 2006, p. 27
ISRAEL/PALESTINE
"ISRAEL LOBBY" MAKES THE NEWS
0310 London Review of Books, The Israel Lobby, John Mearsheimer
and
Stephen Walt: For the past several decades, and especially
since the Six-Day
War in 1967, the centerpiece of US Middle
Eastern policy has been its
relationship with Israel. The
combination of unwavering support for Israel
and the related
effort to spread "democracy" throughout the region has
inflamed
Arab and Islamic opinion and jeopardized not only US security
but
that of much of the rest of the world. This situation has
no equal in
American political history.
0409 TomPaine.com, Colonization of Palestine Precludes Peace,
Jimmy
Carter (Former US President Jimmy Carter led The Carter
Center/National
Democratic Institute observation of the
Palestinian elections in January):
"For more than a quarter
century, Israeli policy has been in conflict with
that of the
United States and the international community," writes
Jimmy
Carter. "Israel's occupation of Palestine has obstructed
a
comprehensive peace agreement in the Holy Land, regardless of
whether
Palestinians had no formalized government, one headed
by Yasir Arafat or
Mahmoud Abbas, or with Abbas as president
and Hamas controlling the
parliament and cabinet."
- ERRI, Hamas Complains of "Blackmail" as Diplomats
Try to
Temper Their Violence
0410 UN/Time, Olmert - Iran a threat to the civilized world
0411 ERRI, Palestinian Police Officer Killed in Shelling:
Israeli
soldiers shelled a Palestinian security position in
northern Gaza Sunday
morning, killing a police officer and
wounding seven people.
0412 RFE, Russia to Continue Aid to Palestinians
- UN, Arab countries
want UN to call for end to Israeli
military strikes
- UN, Olmert looks for
outside help on West Bank withdrawal
0413 TruthOut, The Lobby and the Bulldozer: Mearsheimer, Walt
and
Corrie, Norman Solomon: "For several decades, to the
present moment, Israel's
treatment of Palestinian people has
amounted to methodical and despicable
violations of human
rights. Yet criticism of those policies from anyone
(including
American Jews such as myself) routinely results in
accusations
of anti-Jewish bigotry," writes Norman Solomon.
0414 AlterNet/IPS, Iran Showdown Tests Power of "Israel Lobby",
Jim
Lobe: The Israel Lobby seems to be the only major organized
force actively
pushing the confrontation with Iran toward
crisis.
- UN, US bars UN call
against Israeli attacks
0417 AP, Suicide Bomber Kills 8 in Tel Aviv, Daniel Robinson:
Eight
people were killed and dozens wounded in Israel's
capital, Tel Aviv, when a
Palestinian militant blew himself up
in the deadliest suicide bombing of the
last 20 months.
- ERRI, Suicide/Homicide Bomber Strikes in Tel Aviv:
A
Palestinian suicide bomber has killed at least seven people
along with
himself and injured around 50 at a Tel Aviv falafel
restaurant. The bomb went
off at lunchtime on a busy street
near a bus station in the Israeli city's
Neve Shaanan area.
- UN/IPS, UN stance on Hamas under scrutiny
0418 Salon.com, Breaking the silence - The overwrought response
to John
Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt's brave paper only
confirms its thesis [Israel
lobby in the US], Juan Cole: John
Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago
and Stephen Walt of
Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government have
put
their hands into a hornet's nest with their paper in the
"London
Review of Books", titled "The Israel Lobby and US
Foreign Policy." As
political scientists who routinely analyze
US foreign policy, they have
gained a reputation for lucid and
principled argument, but outside the halls
of academia are not
exactly household names. In daring to simply describe the
well-
known operations of the Israel lobby, however, they have
made
themselves targets of a massive smear campaign. Ironically,
this
reaction is just what their paper predicted.
0419 RFE, Russia Pledges $10 Million to the Palestinians
0421 RFE, Russia Says "Give Hamas a Chance"
0426 AlterNet, Israel Lobby Nutjobs on the Loose, Molly Ivins:
The abuse
heaped on two academics by America's Israel lobby
only proves the point that
we need an honest debate on the
topic.
0428 ERRI, [Israeli] Missile Strike Hits Islamic Jihad Van
---------------------------------------------
Intelligence, N. 478, 1 May 2006, p. 28
SAUDI ARABIA - Co-financing Pakistani Nuclear Program. For the
past
decade, Saudi Arabia, with the help of Pakistani
scientists, has been working
secretly on a nuclear program,
according to an article in the 31 March
edition of "Cicero", a
German current affairs magazine. The report, based on
Western
security and intelligence sources, claims that cooperation
between
the two countries began in the mid-1990s when Saudi
scientists worked in
Pakistan under Abdul Qadeer Khan. Since
then, Pakistani nuclear scientist
have travelled to Riyadh on
several occasions (during the Haj pilgrimages to
Mecca) to work
at al-Sulaiyil, a secret underground city south of
Riyadh.
Saudi engineers have also built dozens of missile silos,
which
house long-range, Pakistani manufactured Ghauri missiles, and
Saudi
bar codes can be found on half of Pakistan's nuclear
weapons, according to US
military analyst John Pike, "because
it is Saudi Arabia which ultimately
co-financed the Pakistani
atomic nuclear program."
---------------------------------------------
Intelligence, N. 478, 1 May 2006, p. 29
IRAQ
MORE "FRIENDLY FIRE" FOR US "HEARTS & MINDS"
Even before "shock and awe" got started in Iraq, the
American
military had been criticized by specialists for its more-or-
less
exclusive reliance on brutal force and firepower to reach
its objectives. The
failure of the Vietnam war doesn't seem to
have changed that approach and
"Intelligence" recently
mentioned a senior French general's criticism of this
American
attitude and its impending consequences in the Iraq war ("USA
-
Military Force Won't Work, So Try More"; INT, n. 477 16): "Why
did the
American Army lose the stabilization phase of the Iraq
war? After the
[initial] force phase had achieved its
objectives, the US Army did not change
its methods vis-a-vis
the population, continuing to rely on force and failing
to seek
the population's acceptance. If it behaved that way, it's
because
the entire American military culture and the training
accorded every soldier
push that logic" (0324 Le Monde,
American Military Strategy Explains the
Failure in Iraq,
Laurent Zecchini). But those are the French... Now it's
George
W. Bush's only major military ally in Iraq, the British Army,
which
has criticized this US military attitude.
Senior British Army officer, Brigadier Alan Sharpe, served with
the US
Military Command in Baghdad in 2004 and was awarded the
OBE (Order of the
British Empire) and the American Bronze Star
for writing the "Coalition
Campaign Plan" for Iraq. He recently
accused American officers of trying to
portray themselves as
Hollywood film stars when dealing with the press. Brig.
Sharpe,
currently O/C of British forces in the Balkans (where he
works
alongside US military personnel) made his comments in a paper
on
Britain's influence on US foreign relations, written during
a one-year course
at the Royal College of Defence Studies
(RCDS) and attended by senior
military figures from around the
world.
According to Brig.Sharpe -- whose high-flying career may be
stymied by
his comments on the military aspects of the so-
called "special relationship"
between London and Washington --
an important part of being a successful US
Army officer was the
ability to combine the "real and acted heroics" of Audie
Murphy
with the "newsreel antics of General Douglas MacArthur" and
the
"movie performances" of Sylvester Stallone and John Wayne. The
"strong
streak of Hollywood" might look good on US TV,
according to Brig. Sharpe, But
"loud voices, full body armour,
wrap-around sunglasses, air strikes and daily
broadcasts from
shoulder-holster wearing brigadier-generals proudly
announcing
how many Iraqis have been killed by US forces" was not
a
"hearts-and-minds winning tool."
Brig. Sharpe believes the British Army's "500 years of
experience" in
insurgency operations gave it an advantage over
US forces, and argued that
the most effective way of passing on
Britain's experience and the "moderate
influence" was to place
"capable officers with a feel for the British way of
doing
business" alongside their American colleagues where they
could
"practically influence the decisions, plans and conduct on
the
ground of US adventures in world policing". He also criticized
Prime
Minister Tony Blair for trying to secure influence with
Washington by
providing "hollowed-out formations with little
real capacity."
He concluded his thesis by referring to an exchange between an
Iraqi
detainee, a member of Saddam Hussein's Ba'athist Party,
who was "loudly
lectured" to by an American officer about his
"previously nefarious ways"
prior to his release from US
military custody. The Iraqi responded: "Hey Mr.
American, next
time before you shout so much you should speak to him
[Brig.
Sharpe]. He is British -- they know how to invade a
country."
Indeed, perhaps someone should ask the Irish for a comment
on
the subject.
Brig. Sharpe's critique suggests nothing much changed since a
year ago
when Blair's personal envoy to Iraq, John Sawers, sent
several classified
memos from Baghdad to London, over an eight-
week period, following the March
2004 invasion. Sawers referred
to the "disastrous mishandling" of the
occupation caused mainly
by a series of failures on the part of the US
military.
Britain's most senior officer serving with US land forces,
Major
General Albert Whitley, also warned his political and
military superiors in a
mid-July 2003 memo that the US/UK
coalition was "in danger of losing the
peace" because of the
lack of proper leadership on the part of the overall
US
commander Gen. Tommy Franks, who had taken little interest in
the
occupation and reconstruction of Iraq following the fall of
Baghdad (INT, n.
476 29).
COMMENT -- The RCDS was founded in 1927 on the
recommendation
of a Cabinet committee chaired by then Secretary of Sate
for
the Colonies, Winston Churchill. Formerly known as the
Imperial
Defence Collage, its original membership of
twenty-five
representatives from Britain, Canada, Australia and New
Zealand
were chiefly concerned with the defence of the British
Empire.
Following WW II, the college relocated from Buckingham Square
to
Seaford House, Belgrave Square, London. In 1970, it was
renamed the Royal
College of Defence Studies with an increased
membership from over 33
countries, including the US, and more
recently Russia, China, Ukraine,
Poland, Hungary, the Slovak
Republic and Nepal. The current RCDS Commandant
is Admiral Sir
Ian Garnett KCB and the senior staff are high-ranking
officers
from the British Army, the Royal Navy, the RAF and the
civil
service.
Candidates from member states who attend the RCDS one-year
course are
selected on their potential to achieve a senior
position in their profession.
There is a maximum of 88 persons
selected for each course, one-third from
Britain and two-thirds
from overseas, of which 75 percent are senior serving
military
personnel, and twenty-five percent are diplomats, civil
servants,
police officers and representatives from the private
sector, particularly the
security and defence industries.
Former members of the RCDS include senior German Army officer,
General
Klaus Naumann, chairman of NATO Military Committee from
1996 to 1999, and the
current Pakistan President, General
Pervez Musharraf, the former head of the
Pakistan Army who led
a successful coup against his former political mentor,
Prime
Minister Nawaz Sharif, in October 1999.
In his thesis, Brig. Sharpe referred to Audie Murphy, the
Hollywood
actor who died in May 1971 in a plane crash in
Virginia and was buried with
full military honors at Arlington
National Cemetery. Murphy served for three
year (1942 to 1945)
as an US Army infantryman, and became the most
decorated
American soldier of WW II. He received every US decoration
for
valor in ground combat, including the Medal of Honor for
"conspicuous
gallantry and intrepidity at the risk of life
above and beyond the call of
duty", as well as awards from
France and Belgium.
---------------------------------------------
Intelligence, N. 478, 1 May 2006, p. 30
IRAQ
"CURRENT EVENTS" IN THE ONGOING WAR
Given the large number of media reports on Iraq, we have
divided
them into two separate articles: the major "current
events" reports listed
here; the major "analysis" and
commentary reports which figure in the
following article.
0407 ERRI, Iraq - New Mosque Bombings Reported;
Multiple
Homicide/Suicide Bombers Suspected
0407 NYT, Bomb Explodes Inside a Shiite Mosque in Baghdad, Kirk
Semple:
The bombing came at a time of increasing violence
between Shiite and Sunni
Muslims, and of increasing conflict
between Mr. Sadr and American officials
in Iraq. The bomb
exploded inside a Baghdad mosque linked to the largest
Shiite
political party today, a day after a car bomb killed 10 people
near
a mosque in a part of Najaf that Shiites consider the
heart of their
religion.
0408 BBC, Fresh Bomb Targets Iraq's Shias: A car bomb has
killed at
least six people, most of them pilgrims, in a mainly
Shia town [Musayyib]
south of Baghdad, Iraqi police say.
0409 NYT, Car Bomb Kills 6; Top Iraqi Shiite Seeks Unity to
Deter
Terror, Kirk Semple: A car bomb tore through a street
crowded with
pedestrians and vendors in Musayyib, a
predominantly Shiite town, on
Saturday, the authorities said,
killing at least 6 people, wounding 21 and
stoking sectarian
tensions in Iraq. The attack followed two others this
week
against major symbols of Shiite Islam that killed more than 80
and
prompted political leaders to appeal for calm and unity.
0412 AP, 20 Killed in Car Bombing at Iraq Mosque, Sameer N.
Yacoub: A
car bomb exploded Wednesday as worshippers were
leaving a Shiite mosque
northeast of Baghdad, killing at least
20 people and injuring 32 others.
-
BBC, Baghdad Market Bomb Kills 13
- ERRI, Five US Soldiers Die in Iraq
0413 ERRI, Iraq - Car Bomb Explodes in Shiite Town - 26 Dead,
70
Wounded
0414 ERRI, 6 Iraqi Policemen Slain, Dozens Missing
0415 ERRI, Bomb Kills 5 At Baghdad Restaurant Frequented By
Police
0416 AP, Iraq Unity Talks Set Back; 4 Marines Die, Qassim
Abdul-Zahra:
Efforts to form a unity government suffered a new
setback Sunday when Iraqi
leaders postponed a parliament
session after failing to agree on a prime
minister. Bombs
targeted Shiites near a mosque and on a bus as
attacks
nationwide killed at least 35 people. Four more Marines
were
reported killed in fighting west of Baghdad, bringing the US
death
toll for this month to 47 - compared with 31 for all of
March.
0418 REU, Baghdad Street Battle Smacks of Open Civil War, Omar
al-Ibadi:
Snipers held rooftop positions as masked Sunni Arab
insurgents said they were
gearing up for another open street
battle with pro-government Shi'ite
militiamen in Baghdad's
Adhamiya district on Tuesday. The Arab Sunni
stronghold is
still feeling ripples from overnight clashes on Monday
that
appeared to be the closest yet to all-out sectarian fighting.
- ERRI,
Eighteen Tortured Bodies Found in Baghdad
0419 WP, US Contractor [Philip H. Bloom] Admits Bribery for
Jobs in Iraq
- Occupation officials got cash and gifts for
deals, Griff Witte: An American
businessman who is at the heart
of one of the biggest corruption cases to
emerge from the
reconstruction of Iraq has pleaded guilty to
conspiracy,
bribery and money-laundering charges.
0420 WP, Al-Jafari to Give Up Iraqi Prime Minister Post,
Nelson
Hernandez, Bassam Sebti and K.I. Ibrahim: Iraq's prime
minister
will give up his nomination for a new term as head of
the
country's new government, a senior member of his Shiite
party
announced, only a few hours before a long-delayed parliament
meeting
scheduled for Thursday was ultimately postponed by two
more days.
0423 BBC, Mortar Attacks Kill 6 in Baghdad: Mortar rounds have
exploded
in Baghdad killing at least six civilians and wounding
two, say Iraqi police.
Three mortars exploded near Iraq's
Defence Ministry while others landed near
the interior ministry
and Shaab stadium. The attacks came one day after
Iraq's
parliament endorsed Shia politician Jawad al-Maliki as
prime
minister.
0424 AP, 7 Car Bombs Explode in Baghdad, Killing 6, Thomas
Wagner: Seven
car bombs exploded across the capital Monday,
killing at least six people and
wounding dozens, as politicians
met to try to finalize a new Cabinet. Police
discovered the
bodies of 20 Iraqis - apparent victims of sectarian
killings
the United States hopes the new government can end.
- ERRI, Seven
Car Bombs Claim Lives in Baghdad
- WP, Inspectors Find More Torture at Iraqi
Jails - US pledge
to protect prisoners "not being followed", Ellen
Knickmeyer:
Last Nov. 13, US soldiers found 173 incarcerated men, some
of
them emaciated and showing signs of torture, in a secret bunker
in an
Interior Ministry compound in central Baghdad. The
soldiers immediately
transferred the men to a separate
detention facility to protect them from
further abuse.
0425 NYT, Dozens of Security Force Recruits Are Killed by
Iraqi
Insurgents, Richard A. Oppel Jr.: At least 40 Iraqi civilians
and
security force recruits were either killed or found dead on
Monday, the Iraqi
authorities said, as insurgents unleashed a
wave of car bombs across Baghdad.
Throughout the capital, seven
car bombs struck, killing at least 10 people
and wounding 76
others. Their targets were the back gate of
Mustansiriya
University, two Iraqi police patrols and a busy intersection
at
rush hour. All of the dead were civilians. At least 15 other
Iraqis
died across the country, the victims of by drive-by
assassinations, bombs and
mortar fire, according to an
Associated Press tally from the police.
0426 ERRI, Al-Zarqawi Releases Video Mocking the United States
- ERRI,
Surge of Violence Leaves 10 Dead in Baghdad
0427 ERRI, Bomb Blast Kills Three Italian Soldiers in Iraq
---------------------------------------------
Intelligence, N. 478, 1 May 2006, p. 31
IRAQ
"ANALYSIS" & "COMMENTARY" REPORTS
0406 TomDispatch.com, Cutting and Running in Baghdad,
Robert
Dreyfuss: As usual, President Bush, Vice President Cheney,
and
their stalwart secretaries of state and defense, are
johnnies-
come-lately in their ability to understand how far gone Iraq
is.
Perhaps, as has been the case in the past, that is because
they continue
flagrantly to disregard what they are told by
analysts in the US intelligence
community.
0407 Northwest Indiana Times, Former Diplomat - Iraq War Made
World Less
Safe, Bob Kasarda: Ann Wright, former Deputy Chief
of Mission at the US
Embassy in Mongolia for the US Foreign
Service, feels as long as the US
remains in Iraq, the violence
there will continue. Wright said the US needs
to leave as soon
as possible and leave it up to the Iraqi people to decide
if
they want an international presence and, if so, whom.
0408 IND, Iraq Three Years On: Don't Look Away, Patrick
Cockburn: Three
years after the toppling of Saddam, Iraq is a
bloody mess. Yesterday 70
people were killed in an attack on a
Baghdad mosque. Patrick Cockburn reports
on three years of
broken promises in a blighted land
0410 IND, Three Years After Saddam's Fall, US Report Says Iraq
Is in
Turmoil, Andrew Buncombe: A confidential assessment of
the security situation
across Iraq carried out by US officials
has portrayed a country beset by
violence and sectarian
division and where the stability of six of its 18
provinces is
considered "serious" and one is said to be "critical".
0410 Liberation, Iraq - Arabs Worried About Shiite Takeover,
Christophe
Ayad: Hosni Mubarak has now said out loud what all
Arab leaders are thinking
to themselves about Iraq: he fears
the dismemberment of the state and a
Shiite takeover of the
lion's share.
0412 NYT, Deaths of US Soldiers Climb Again in Iraq, Edward
Wong: The
American military on Tuesday announced the deaths of
five soldiers, bringing
the number of troops killed this month
to at least 32. That figure already
surpasses the American
military deaths for all of March.
0413 CSM, Shiite Exodus From Mixed Towns - Thousands of Iraqis
have fled
their homes as a result of rising sectarian violence,
David Enders
0413 Progress Report, Iraq - Laboratories of Mass Deception
[mobile
bio-weapons labs], A Historical Recap; Bush
Administration Peddles False
Myth; Blame the Press; White House
Intelligence Agency; History Repeats
Itself; Questions for
Cambone.
0414 AP, US Building Massive Embassy in Baghdad, Charles J.
Hanley: The
fortress-like compound rising beside the Tigris
River here will be the
largest of its kind in the world, the
size of Vatican City, with the
population of a small town, its
own defense force, self-contained power and
water, and a
precarious perch at the heart of Iraq's turbulent future.
0414 Chicago Tribune, On the Ground, It's a Civil War - The
debate over
what to call Iraq's war is lost on many Iraqis as
shadowy Shiite militias and
Sunni insurgents wage their deadly
conflict, Aamer Madhani
0415 IND, US Colonel [John Coleman] Offers Iraq an Apology of
Sorts for
Devastation of Babylon, Rupert Cornwell: In an act of
at least partial
contrition, an officer in charge of the US
military occupation of Babylon in
2003 and 2004 has offered to
make a formal apology for the destruction his
troops wrought on
the ancient site; Colonel John Coleman, former chief of
staff
for the 1st Marine Expeditionary Force in Iraq.
0416 Boston Globe, US Firms Suspected of Bilking Iraq Funds -
Millions
missing from program for rebuilding, Farah Stockman:
American contractors
swindled hundreds of millions of dollars
in Iraqi funds, but so far there is
no way for Iraq's
government to recoup the money.
0416 NYT, A Bad Leak: President Bush says he declassified
portions of
the prewar intelligence assessment on Iraq because
he "wanted people to see
the truth" about Iraq's weapons
programs and to understand why he kept
accusing Saddam Hussein
of stockpiling weapons that turned out not to exist.
This would
be a noble sentiment if it actually bore any relationship
to
Mr. Bush's actions in this case, or his overall record.
0417 Knight Ridder, US Knew Shiite Militias Were a Threat but
Took no
Action Largely Because They Were Focused on Sunni
Insurgency, Tom Lasseter:
US officials were warned for more
than two years that Shiite Muslim militias
were infiltrating
Iraq's security forces and taking control of neighborhoods,
but
they failed to take action to counteract it.
0418 TruthOut, The Ongoing War on Truth in Iraq, Dahr Jamail:
Dahr
Jamail on the failure of mainstream news to report the US-
backed Shia
militia invasion of a Sunni neighborhood and
ongoing violence in
Fallujah.
0420 AFP, 20,000 Kidnapped in Iraq Since January: Nearly 20,000
people
have been kidnapped in Iraq since the beginning of this
year alone, according
to a report released on Wednesday. The
survey, which underscores the massive
social upheaval caused by
rebel activity and increasing sectarian conflict,
does not give
the number of people killed. However, it says that
15,462
people have been wounded. The 19,548 people kidnapped
includes
4,959 women and 2,350 children, according to the report
prepared
by a group of 125 non-governmental organisations and
made public in the Shia
holy city of Karbala.
0421 BBC, UN Damns "Illegal" Iraq Detention: The UN's human
rights
official in Iraq has said the Iraqi authorities are
illegally holding
thousands of people. Gianni Magazzeni said
that of the 15,000 people held
under Iraqi control, little more
than half were under the jurisdiction of the
justice ministry.
This is the only body with the right to detain suspects
for
more than 72 hours.
0424 GUA, Bush Ignored Intelligence on Iraqi Weapons, Says Ex-
CIA
Officer [Tyler Drumheller], Dan Glaister: A former leading
CIA official said
yesterday that the White House deliberately
ignored intelligence that showed
that there were no weapons of
mass destruction in the run-up to the war in
Iraq.
0424 TomPaine.com, A Paper Lid On Iraq's Volcano, Robert
Dreyfuss: The
civil war in Iraq won't end with the naming of a
hard-line Shiite
fundamentalist as Iraq's next prime minister.
President George W. Bush,
desperate to find some progress in
the violent chaos of Iraq, calls the
designation of Jawad al-
Maliki "awesome." Zalmay Khalilzad, putting on his
game face,
says of Maliki: "He is a tough guy," before adding,
hastily,
that he meant "tough-minded." But a man in Baquba, the
war-
battered city north of Baghdad, had a far more appropriate
comment on
Maliki. He told the "Guardian": "He is a hateful
sectarian who has made
venomous comments about Iraq and Arabs.
Jawad al-Maliki is the final nail in
Iraq's coffin." And so he
is. The Bush administration hopes that Maliki will
lead a
government of national unity. But in fact Maliki is just a
paper
lid on the volcano that is Iraq.
---------------------------------------------
Intelligence, N. 478, 1 May 2006, p. 32
IRAN
PSY OPS BEFORE THE STORM
A Tehran-based group called the Committee for the Commemoration
of
Martyrs of the Global Islamic Campaign (CCMGIC) claims to
have recruited
hundreds of potential suicide bombers during a
19 April recruitment fair for
"martyrdom seekers" held in the
compound of the former US Embassy in the
Iranian capital. The
group is targeting potential martyrs among disaffected
Muslims
in Britain because of the relative ease which Iranian
asylum-
seekers have been able to obtain British passports and then
enter
Israel, which remains the primary target for attacks.
According to the
group's spokesman, Mohammad Samadi, that is
the battlefield: "All the Jews
are targets, whether military or
civilian. It's our land and they are in the
wrong place. It's
their duty to pay attention to the safety of their own
families
and move them away from the battlefield." Recruits would not
be
ordered to carrying out attacks in the UK "unless it was to
kill Salman
Rushdie".
According to Mossad, there is no evidence that Samadi's group
as been
involved in suicide attacks in Israel. However, in
April 2003, two British
Muslims, Asif Mohammed Hanif and Omar
Sharif, entered Israel on British
passports posing as peace
activists and carried out an attack at Mike's
Place, a bar in
Tel Aviv, killing three Israelis and wounding dozens of
others.
Hanif died at the scene, Sharif fled and later drowned in
the
Mediterranean.
The CCMGIC was formed in 2003 and claims to have more than
50,000
recruits who are instructed in target reconnaissance,
military discipline,
urban guerrilla warfare, bomb-making and
the use of explosive body-belts. The
group also claims to be an
"independent organization", but Western
intelligence sources
believe it is linked to the Revolutionary Guards'
Special Unit
of Martyr Seekers of whom 30 percent are women. The
unit
marched in an official military parade in Tehran last month,
attended
by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The
President was a former member
of the Revolutionary Guards in
the late 1970s during the seizure of the US
Embassy following
the return from France of the Ayatollah Khomeini and the
flight
into exile of the last Shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi.
On 19 April, the US Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, made
a barely
veiled threat that Iran could face a conventional
military assault if
diplomacy, supported by the UN Security
Council and aimed at enforcing IAEA
controls on Iran's disputed
nuclear program, fails. In response, General
Adbolrahim
Moussavi, the head of the Iranian Army, issued a
statement
through the semi-official Mehr news agency, saying any
aggressor
will suffer an "unforgettable" response "regardless
of who they are or what
position they are in."
COMMENT -- While the sabre-rattling continues in
Washington,
Tel Aviv, London and other EU capitals, John Negroponte,
the
head of the US Intelligence Directorate, has described Iran's
nuclear
enrichment breakthrough, with a cascade of 164
centrifuges at the Natanze
nuclear facility, as "clearly
troublesome", but pointed out to journalists at
the National
Press Club, in Washington, on 20 April, that the issue
should
be "kept in perspective." While the enrichment program for
a
civilian nuclear power program can be extended to make the
fissile core
of a nuclear bomb, "we believe that it is still a
number of years off before
they have enough fissile material to
assemble into, or to put into a nuclear
weapon, perhaps into
the next decade."
Negroponte was appointed head of the newly-created
Intelligence
Directorate by President Bush a year ago, following the
CIA's
failure to locate Iraq's WMD arsenal. Negroponte's organization
has
a staff of almost 1,000, and has been accused by
intelligence professionals
and analysts of becoming another
"bloated bureaucracy." His assessment, in a
speech to mark his
first year in office, has been dismissed as "armchair
analysis"
by unidentified sources described as being "close to the
White
House administration."
Other Iran-US related reports include:
0328 IPS, "Cabal" Blocked 2003 Nuclear Talks With Iran, Gareth
Porter:
The Bush administration failed to enter into
negotiations with Iran on its
nuclear program in May 2003
because neo-conservatives who advocated
destabilization and
regime change were able to block any serious
diplomatic
engagement with Tehran, according to former
administration
officials.
0402 WP, Attacking Iran May Trigger Terrorism, Dana Priest
0404 Council on Foreign Relations, Cirincione: Time For Clear
Public
Understanding of Iranian Threat
- Progress Report, Iran - Analyst Says Some
Senior US Officials
Determined to Strike Iran
0407 FT, Iran Ready for High-Level Talks, US Resists, Guy
Dinmore: Iran
has prepared a high-level delegation to hold
wide-ranging talks with the US,
but the Bush administration is
resisting the agenda suggested by Tehran
despite pressure from
European allies to engage the Islamic republic,
Iranian
politicians have told the Financial Times.
0410 Progress Report, Iran - The Nuclear Option: High-Ranking
[US]
Military Officials Threatening to Resign Over [US] Nuke
Plans, Costs of War:
Iran Terror Force "Makes Al Qaida Look
Like Kindergarten" Costs of War: Air
Strike Would "Almost
Certainly Speed Up" Iranian Nuke Program Costs of War:
"What
Will 1.2 Billion Muslims Think the Day We Bomb Iran?" A
Nuclear
Regime Crisis, Not a Nuclear Weapons Crisis; Show US the Intel
0410 Proliferation News, Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace,
Special Iran Edition: The Iran Plans, Seymour M. Hersh,
"New Yorker", Monday,
April 10; US Is Studying Military Strike
Options on Iran, Peter Baker, Dafna
Linzer and Thomas E. Ricks,
"Washington Post", Sunday, April 9; Yes He Would,
Paul Krugman,
"New York Times", Monday, April 10; Reports Raise
Possibility
of US Strike on Iran, Joseph Cirincione on NPR's "All
Things
Considered", Sunday, April 9; The Nuclear Power Beside Iraq,
James
Fallows, "Atlantic", May 2006; We Are Not Going to Nuke
Iran,
ArmsControlWonk.com, Sunday, April 9; IAEA Chief to Visit
Iran, CNN, Sunday,
April 9; Fool Me Twice, Joseph Cirincione,
"Foreign Policy", Monday, March
27; Making the Right Call: How
the World Can Limit Iran's Nuclear Program,
Charles D. Fergusun
and Ray Takeyh, Arms Control Association, March
2006.
- IND, Target Iran: US Hints At a New Battlefront - Tensions
are
rising over Tehran's alleged nuclear weapons programme as
the Pentagon
considers its military options, Anne Penketh
- New Yorker (dated 0417), The
Iran Plans - Would President
Bush go to war to stop Tehran from getting the
bomb? Seymour M.
Hersh
0411 Progress Report, No Good Military Options in Iran: From
the
Heritage Foundation to the Council on Foreign Relations,
from Rep. John
Murtha (D-PA) to former top Bush State
Department official Richard Haass, the
experts agree -- there
are no good military options in Iran. ThinkProgress
has created
a graphic database featuring quotes from prominent analysts
and
officials weighing in on the prospects of preemptive war in
Iran.
-
TomPaine.com, Mind Games Over Iran, Jim Lobe: Three years
after the fall of
Baghdad to US forces, Washington is abuzz
about new reports that the
administration of President George
W. Bush is preparing to attack Iran,
possibly with nuclear
weapons.
- UN, Bolton: Iran crisis will show UN's
worth
- NPR, Options Limited for Military Attack on Iran -
Joseph
Cirincione
- NYT, [US] Military Fantasies on Iran
- NYT, Bush
Insists on Diplomacy in Confronting a Nuclear Iran,
Jim Rutenberg
-
Progress Report, Iran - Recent Coverage Fails to Note
Administration's
Creation of Secretive Iran Group
0412 Democracy Now!, Seymour Hersh: Bush Administration
Planning
Possible Major Air Attack on Iran, Amy Goodman: We are
joined today by
Pulitzer Prize winning journalist Seymour
Hersh. In the latest issue of the
"New Yorker", Hersh reports
that the Bush administration has increased
clandestine
activities inside Iran and intensified planning for a
possible
major air attack. Sources told Hersh that Air Force
planning
groups are drawing up lists of targets, and teams of
American
combat troops have been ordered into Iran, under cover,
to
collect targeting data and to establish contact with anti-
government
ethnic-minority groups. One of the military's
initial option plans calls for
the use of a bunker-buster
tactical nuclear weapon against suspected
underground nuclear
sites.
0412 FT, US Ex-Official [Richard Armitage] Urges Talks With
Iran,
Demetri Sevastopulo: Richard Armitage, deputy secretary
of state during
President George W. Bush's first term, has
urged the Bush administration to
hold talks with Iran over its
nuclear programme.
- NPR, The US and Iran --
What Next? Joseph Cirincione and
Michael Rubin
0413 Asia Times, The war on Iran, Pepe Escobar: President
George W Bush
issued a "wild speculation" non-denial denial
that the US was planning
strategic nuclear strikes against
Iran, but Iran considerably upped the ante
on Tuesday with
President Mahmud Ahmadinejad's announcement that Iran
had
enriched uranium for the first time.
- ERRI, Rice Urges Security
Council to Take "Strong Steps"
Against Iran
- Weekly Standard, To Bomb or
Not to Bomb, Reuel Marc Gerecht
- WSJ, Concerns Mount Over Iran's Nuclear
Ambitions, Carla Anne
Robbins
0415 REU, Key Senator Bucks Bush, Urges US-Iran Talks: The
United States
should hold direct talks with Iran on its nuclear
program and go slow on
pressing for sanctions, contrary to Bush
administration strategy, the Senate
Foreign Relations Committee
chairman said on Sunday.
- ERRI, Iranian
Rhetoric on Israel Adds to Nuclear Concerns:
State Department spokesman says
latest anti-Israeli comments by
Iran's president are "reprehensible".
-
ERRI, Military Options Against Iran Potentially Carry Big
Risks
0416 OBS, So How Close Is a Showdown Over Iran? - News of
British
involvement in a mock invasion of Iran is just the
latest step in what seems
a slow slide to war, Paul Harris,
Gaby Hinsliff and Robert Tait
0421 The Nation, Attack Iran, Ignore the Constitution, Jeremy
Brecher
and Brendan L. Smith: During the 2004 election, George
W. Bush famously
proclaimed that he didn't have to ask anyone's
permission to defend America.
Does that mean he can attack Iran
without having to ask Congress? A new
Congressional resolution
being drafted by Representative Peter DeFazio, a
Democrat from
Oregon, can be a vehicle to remind Bush that he can't.
0423 LAT, Been There, Done That - Talk of a US strike on Iran
is eerily
reminiscent of the run-up to the Iraq war, Zbigniew
Brzezinski: Iran
announcement that it has enriched a minute
amount of uranium has unleashed
urgent calls for a preventive
US air strike from the same sources that
earlier urged war on
Iraq. If there is another terrorist attack in the
United
States, you can bet your bottom dollar that there also will
be
immediate charges that Iran was responsible in order to
generate public
hysteria in favor of military action. But there
are four compelling reasons
against a preventive air attack on
Iranian nuclear facilities.
0424 ERRI, Provocative Rhetoric From Iran Continues; Iranian
Defense
Minister Says America Will "Suffer Humiliating Defeat"
0425 Asia Times, Tehran Insider Tells of US Black Ops: A former
Iranian
ambassador and Islamic Republic insider has provided
intriguing details to
"Asia Times" Online about US covert
operations inside Iran aimed at
destabilizing the country and
toppling the regime - or preparing for an
American attack.
0426 WP, Time To Talk With Iran, Robert E. Hunter
0427 WP, Iranian Leader Warns US Of Reprisal, Molly Moore and
Thomas E.
Ricks
---------------------------------------------
Intelligence, N. 478, 1 May 2006, p. 33
IRAN
NUCLEAR SOON, LATER OR NEVER
0404 ERRI/AFPS, Iran Might Have New "Missile-Torpedo," DoD
Official
Says, Gerry J. Gilmore
0405 ERRI, Iran Tests New Shoulder Fired Anti-Aircraft Missile
[Mithaq
1]
0406 ERRI, Iran Fires "Ultra-Horizon" Missile
- NYT, We Do Not Have a
Nuclear Weapons Program, Javad Zarif
- RFE, Kyrgyz Defense Minister
[Lieutenant General Ismail
Isakov] Denies Reports of Torpedo Sale to
Iran
0411 REU, Iran Producing Atomic Fuel - Rafsanjani
0412 juancole.com, Iran Can Now Make glowing Mickey Mouse
Watches, Juan
Cole: The ability to slightly enrich uranium is
not the same as the ability
to build a bomb. For the latter,
you need at least 80% enrichment, which in
turn would require
about 16,000 small centrifuges hooked up to cascade. Iran
does
not have 16,000 centrifuges. It seems to have 180. Iran is a
good ten
years away from having a bomb.
- ERRI, Iranian President Announces Successful
Uranium
Enrichment Program
- Progress Report, Iran - Uranium Enrichment
Announcement
Called "Political Theater"
- RFE, Russia Says Iran Headed "In
Wrong Direction"
- UN, Iran crosses uranium enrichment threshold
0413 NYT, Analysts Say a Nuclear Iran Is Years Away, William J.
Broad,
Nazila Fathi and Joel Brinkley: Western nuclear analysts
said yesterday that
Tehran lacked the skills, materials and
equipment to make good on its
immediate nuclear ambitions, even
as a senior Iranian official said Iran
would defy international
pressure and rapidly expand its ability to enrich
uranium for
fuel. The official, Muhammad Saeedi, the deputy head of
Iran's
atomic energy organization, said Iran would push quickly to
put
54,000 centrifuges on line - a vast increase from the 164 they
said
Tuesday that they had used to enrich uranium to levels
that could fuel a
nuclear reactor.
- Carnegie, Iran's Long Nuclear Road: How long will it take
for
Iran to produce a nuclear weapon? The best estimates indicate
that
Iran is 5-10 years away from the ability to enrich enough
weapons-grade
uranium for a nuclear weapon.
- RFE, Russian Minister [Foreign Minister
Sergei Lavrov] Warns
against "Exaggerating" Iranian Nuclear Issue; As Experts
Call
Iran's Claims "Fairy Tales".
0414 ERRI, Ahmadinejad Continues His Confrontational Rhetoric
Over
Enrichment
- ERRI, Intelligence agencies Say Iran is Years Away from
"The
Bomb"
- UN, Iran rejects ElBaradei's call to suspend
uranium
enrichment
0417 NYT, New Worry [P-2 centrifuges] Rises after Iran Claims
Nuclear
Steps, William J. Broad and David E. Sanger
0418 AP, Russia Still Opposed to Sanctions on Iran
0419 RFE, Moscow Talks on Iran Deadlocked
0420 RFE, Russia to Honor Arms Deal with Iran
- WP, Envoys Remain Split
on Plan Against Iran - Degree of
sanctions by UN at issue, Peter Finn
-
Xinhua, China Urges Restraint in Solving Iran Nuclear Issue
0421 ERRI, Russia waiting for "concrete facts" on Iran
- RFE, Russia
Defends Iranian Nuclear Plant Project; And Says
Only UN Can Tell Countries to
Stop Cooperation with Tehran
0424 Bloomberg, Iran's Ahmadinejad Rejects UN Deadline on
Uranium
Enrichment
0425 ERRI, Iranian President Dismisses Nuclear Deadline
- RFE, Is Russia
"Opposed" to Iran Going Nuclear?
0426 NYT, Senior Iran Cleric Tells Sudan That Nuclear Aid Is
Available,
Nazila Fathi: Iran's supreme leader said Tuesday at
a meeting here with the
Sudanese president that Iran was ready
to share its nuclear technology with
other countries.
- ERRI, Iran Threatens to Hide Nuclear Program
0427 REU, Russia, China Stress Diplomacy in Iran Nuclear Row,
Edmund
Blair
0428 ERRI, Iran to ignore UN nuclear ruling
---------------------------------------------
Intelligence, N. 478, 1 May 2006, p. 34
MIDDLE EAST - Turkey, Egypt & Saudi Arabia.
0407 ERRI, Female
Suicide Bomber Hits Turkish Mosque
0417 ERRI, At Least Thirty Wounded in
Turkish Explosion
0423 ERRI, Alleged Bin Laden Tape Aired On Arab TV Network;
Al-
Qaida Head Attempts to Justify "Clash of Civilizations"
0424 AP,
Blasts Kill 18 in Egyptian Resort City, Steven R.
Hurst: Three nearly
simultaneous explosions rocked the Egyptian
resort city of Dahab on Monday,
killing at least 22 people and
wounding more than 150 in a terror attack at
the height of the
tourist season.
0425 ERRI, Triple Bombing in Egyptian
Resort Leaves 23 Dead
0426 ERRI, Two Suicide Bombers Strike Multinational
Force in
Egypt
0426 LAT, Iraqi Strife Seeping Into Saudi Kingdom, Megan
K.
Stack: The conflict in Iraq has begun to spill over onto
this
hardscrabble, sunburned swath of coast, breathing new life into
the
ancient rivalry between the country's powerful Sunni Muslim
majority and the
long-oppressed Shiite minority in one of the
most oil-rich areas of the
world.
---------------------------------------------
Intelligence, N. 478, 1 May 2006, p. 35
PAKISTAN/AFGHANISTAN
CONTINUING WAR WITH THE TALIBAN
0405 ERRI, Pakistani Security Forces Battle Militants for a
Second
Day [near the Afghan border]
0407 ERRI, 3 Americans hurt in Afghan blast
0409 ERRI, Suicide Bomber at NATO Base Kills 2 in Rising
Taliban
Attacks
0410 LAT, US Military Secrets for Sale at Afghan Bazaar, Paul
Watson: No
more than 200 yards from the main gate of the
sprawling US base here, stolen
computer drives containing
classified military assessments of enemy targets,
names of
corrupt Afghan officials and descriptions of American
defenses
are on sale in the local bazaar.
0411 ERRI, Taliban Gunmen Kill Five Medical Workers
0412 ERRI, Rocket Explodes at School Near US-base in
Afghanistan
0413 WP, New Attacks Foment Fear in Afghanistan - Weak
governance beyond
capital is blamed, Pamela Constable: A spate
of terrorist attacks, from the
murders of five medical workers
in Badghis province in the north to bombings
in the opium poppy
region of Helmand in the south, is expanding a climate
of
insecurity across Afghanistan as NATO forces prepare to take
over most
military duties from the US-led coalition.
0414 ERRI, Bomb kills 3 Policemen in Afghanistan
0416 ERRI, Taliban Rebels Attack Police Checkpoints
0417 BBC, US Kills Seven Afghan Civilians: The US military has
admitted
killing seven civilians during a battle with
insurgents in Afghanistan. A
statement regretting the "loss of
innocent life" and announcing an
investigation was released by
the US. "Whether our direct fire was
responsible or close-air
support or if the victims were caught in the
crossfire we just
don't know right now," the spokesman said.
0419 NYT, Afghan Battles See Higher Toll for Civilians,
Carlotta Gall:
More than 20 Afghan civilians have been reported
killed or wounded in the
last three days by Afghan and American
security forces as the troops have
fought an outbreak of
insurgent activity.
- AP, Blast Hits Near US Embassy
in Kabul, Paul Garwood: A
massive explosion believed to have been caused by a
rocket
shook the Afghan capital late Wednesday near the US
Embassy
compound, wounding an Afghan security contractor.
0424 IPS, Pakistan Stressed by US Designs on Iran, MB Naqvi: As
the
crisis around Iran over its alleged nuclear ambitions
assumes an ugly shape,
Pakistan finds itself once again, under
enormous political pressure because
of aggressive United States
policy towards a Muslim country in its immediate
neighbourhood.
Already, the Pakistan government is under fire from
powerful
Islamist groups and political parties for supporting the
US-led
"war-on-terror" in Afghanistan, especially in the border areas
of
North West Frontier Province. And now the US is pressing
both Pakistan and
India to forego the economically advantageous
Iran-Pakistan-India gas
pipeline project and think of other
ways of meeting their energy
requirements.
- Progress Report, Afghanistan - Violence Continues "In
the
Shadows" of Iraq
---------------------------------------------
Intelligence, N. 478, 1 May 2006, p. 36
ASIA
INDIA, NEPAL, SRI LANKA & CHINA
0409 BBC, Clashes Erupt at Nepal Protests: Police in Nepal have
used
teargas in clashes with hundreds of protesters who defied
a curfew for a
second day to rally against King Gyanendra's
rule. At least three people have
been killed since police first
opened fire on mass rallies on Saturday. They
have been ordered
to shoot anyone who violates the curfew in Kathmandu and
other
cities.
0412 AP, Violence Leaves 16 Dead in Sri Lankan Town, Krishan
Francis:
Two explosions and subsequent violence Wednesday
killed 16 people in a
restive town of northeast Sri Lanka that
the military has placed under
curfew, authorities said. Army
and navy units were patrolling the streets of
Trincomalee to
enforce the curfew.
- GUA, Karachi Bomb Attack Leaves at
Least 45 Sunni Worshippers
Dead, Declan Walsh: A powerful bomb ripped through
a crowd of
Sunni Muslims in the southern Pakistani city of
Karachi
yesterday evening, killing at least 45 and raising fears of
an
escalation of tit-for-tat sectarian atrocities.
- ERRI, 55 People
Killed in Karachi Bombing
- ERRI, 12 Sri Lankan Naval Personnel Killed in
Attack
0413 ERRI, Nine Dead in Sri Lankan Bombing
- REU, North Korea Threatens
to Boost Nuclear Arsenal, Jack Kim
0414 AP, 2 Bombs Explode at Main New Delhi Mosque: Two bombs
exploded at
New Delhi's main mosque shortly after hundreds of
worshippers offered Friday
prayers, injuring at least six
people, the mosque's chief cleric said.
-
ERRI, Multiple Explosions Strike India
0415 ERRI, Five dead, 43 hurt in Indian Kashmir blasts
[Srinagar]
0417 AP, Nepalese Forces Fire on Demonstrators, Binaj
Gurubacharya
0420 ERRI, Nepal Descends Into Further Violence as Four Shot
- WP,
Bush-Hu Meeting To Highlight Role That China Plays, Glenn
Kessler
0421 REU, Nepal King Says to Hand Over Power, Gopal Sharma:
Nepal's King
Gyanendra, facing sweeping anti-monarchy protests,
said on Friday he was
handing over political power to the
people and asked a seven-party alliance
to choose a new prime
minister.
- Scout Report, US Intelligence and the
Indian Bomb
http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB187/index.htm
0424 NYT, Nepal's King Orders Parliament Reinstated, Somini
Sengupta and
Tilak P. Pokharel: An ashen King Gyanendra went on
television late this
evening to concede to the demands of the
angry pro-democracy demonstrations
roiling his country and turn
over the government to the elected parliament
that was
dissolved four years ago.
0425 ERRI, Female Suicide Bomber Kills Eight in Sri Lanka
- ERRI,
Nepalese King Reinstates Parliament
- FT, Six Party Talks on North Korea in
"Terminal Decline",
Anna Fifield
0426 Bloomberg, Sri Lanka Fighting Kills 100, Displaces
Thousands, UN
Says, Bill Varner: Fighting in Sri Lanka during
the past two days has killed
at least 100 people and driven
thousands from their homes, the United Nations
said after the
Indian Ocean nation's military bombed Tamil Tiger
positions
again today.
- ERRI, Sri Lanka Launches Air Strikes Following
Suicide
Bombing
0427 ERRI, Soldiers Kill Six Villagers in Nepal
- ERRI, Sri Lankans Flee
as Air Force Strikes Tamil-Held Areas
---------------------------------------------
<END OF
FILE>
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