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Hi All, The answer to some of the question, not all, on how much oil? PFC Energy produced a report on this; http://www.pfcenergy.com/ PFC energy data analysis shows that for the last 7 years, the number of significant producing countries with production declines is roughly equal to the number of countries with production growth. Tracking the country life cycles show that a number of countries are passing from peak to decline in production. Several countries have reached a critical depletion point which typically signifies the onset of production decline. PFC energy model suggest that the flat trends from the onset of the 1990s would continue throughout the decade with a decline beginning at the start of the next decade. With the last 20 years of growing consumptions with negative liquid balances it is possible to model peak in non-OPEC production peak on the horizon (2010-2015). The unknown is the extent the high oil prices would drive a surge in exploration. As for transparency; . There has been a transition from the physical oil market in the past to the existing physical, futures exchange and OTC futures market. With the market dollars changing on a daily basis, daily news driven, unlimited trading and split second trading firm offers, all provide high volatility.The sources of transparency today are the futures exchange and OTC futures (via traders, journalist or brokers – the best source). However, how effective and transparent can the futures market be? Can the the hedging process be transparent? As for the Gas market, I am not sure if the natural gas (C1-C2) markets are to grow, but the LNG (C3-C4s) markets is set to grow. It is also assumed to be a clean source of fuel..I am not sure if it is clean, cleaner...maybe To be honest, the whole issue is beyond me. I am not an oil or gas expert. It just so happens that I have been studying this issues recently. As for my statement that we may not survive to see the oil production peak....Well, I could be wrong, I hope I am wrong :) yours yunus >From: Mandy & Andy Meikle <[log in to unmask]> >Reply-To: Mandy & Andy Meikle <[log in to unmask]> >To: [log in to unmask] >Subject: From ships to Peak Oil >Date: Mon, 25 Jul 2005 16:45:30 +0100 > >Thanks to Yunus for that! I didn't want to switch people off with too many >Peak Oil facts & figures, but am happy to try to field any queries. I agree >that as supply fails to meet demand, there will be a 'shortage' of oil & >one >of my points was to ask who gets the oil & who doesn't? > >How much oil is left? >When Yunus said, "New technologies do not produce oil; they merely increase >the rate of the oil well depletion" he was spot on. Unfortunately, the >world >market has not cottoned on to this. So long as we continue to live under >'perpetual growth' economics, we're going to face a fall. Maybe academics >should join the call for complete transparency by oil companies on their >reserves. I believe the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) is >calling for this & I can find out more if anyone's interested. > >It's impossible to know what we're up against with oil company secrecy. >Yunus may know more here, but in the 1980s all the OPEC countries, starting >with Saudi Arabia, altered the way they reported their reserves because >those with the largest reserves would be permitted to extract more oil. I >believe they switched from reporting 'oil remaining' to 'total reserves'! >Yes, it does sound crazy but I have seen the graphs, all suddenly reporting >higher reserves without obvious new discoveries. > >When is Peak? >Yunus also said, "I do not think the world will survive to see oil >production peak", which is a very gloomy prospect for me given that I think >Peak will be before 2010! However, we won't know we've peaked til we're >down >the other side (real 20:20 hindsight). But a geologist (M. King Hubbert) >first described oil well depletion in 1956 and despite the ridicule his >theories still receive, he has been proved right, most dramatically by the >US which peaked in 1971(Hubbert predicted 1970). > >Remember that the impacts of passing a global peak in oil production will >not be instant. Indeed the shape of the tail of the production curve is >totally dependant on how we utilise the remaining reserves. However, the >impacts of peak oil will be more severe for those who live an oil-dependent >life. And they'll also be more severe for us if we lose the Gulf Stream! >Which is why we need to use less oil now - if not for the sake of the >climate, then for the sake of the remaining reserves. > >As I said before, it's not peak oil vs. climate change - they're 2 sides of >the same coin. While the politicians stick their heads in the (oil-bearing) >sand, everyone is capable of seriously reducing their own oil reliance. >Video conferencing is one obvious way to communicate without burning fossil >fuels (although now we need to know how much embedded energy is there in a >video conferencing suite & global satellite communications ...) > >Isn't it said that if we used 1/4 (or is it 1/2) of known oil reserves, >we'd >push climate change into the irreversible phase? How reliable is this >figure >and over what time frame? Peak Oil is based on there being around a >trillion >(1,000 billion) barrels of oil left in known reserves, out of a total >original reserve of 2 trillion barrels (we've used half, hence we're at the >peak in the production bell curve). > >So if 1/4 of the oil remaining is 250 billion barrels & current global >consumption is around 30 billion barrels per year, we can only continue >using as much oil as we do today for 8 years. This takes no account of >year-on-year growth in consumption, nor of the increasing difficulty in >accessing oil (deeper off shore, pumping in water or CO2 to release more >oil, turning to non-conventional sources which are more energy intensive to >extract, like tar sands & heavy oil). > >OK, I really have moved away from the plane/ship debate and into the >doomsday scenario. Sorry! However, I hope it explains the urgent need for >more academic study of peak oil & energy scenarios. I just don't believe >that the oil which we know is still out there has ever been >under-estimated - much more likely to have been over-estimated (look at >Shell!) > >I hope this debate will continue ... > >MM x > >* * * * * * * >Hi Mandy and all, > >Actually peak oil is also about the shortage of oil in the coming future. > >OPEC and Non-OPEC countries are producing larger volumes of convential >crude >then they are finding by a factor of 3. depletion rates are reaching or >exceeding 50%. Sustaining or increasing the production levels would be >challenges. The diminishing exploration success has left us with relatively >little number of undeveloped fields with significant production capacity >especially in non-OPEC countries. The critical question is whether OPEC >countries are capable of providing the magnitude of production capacity >growth that will be required in this decade. > >For oil production forecasting, it is best to look at long term trends >since >short term forecast are generally not accurate due to lack of data. 50% of >oil supply is from 120 giant oil fields, 50% of them are more then 40 years >old and 95% are over 25 years old. The estimate of remaining reserves is >mostly estimates or guesses. The Middle East is thought to hold 2/3 of the >world reserves but some say it is much less. The 30 year average oil demand >growth is about 2.4%. In terms of production, North sea, the US, Mexico, >Iran and Saudi fields are all on decline with the North sea showing the >largest rate of depletion. New technologies do not produce oil; they >merely >increase the rate of the oil well depletion. > >From adjusted to inflation and investment rates, the oil prices of >US$50/barrel is still below long term average. Transport is the main >culprit, i.e. the largest growth sector which uses oil. The average >American >spends US$80/month per car in a country with an average income of about >US$35,000/year. > >In 2004, the global oil consumption increased to 136 million tons of which >China contributed about 30% (of the growth). The need for 90 million tons >could come from China in 2005/6, By 2020; China would consume 34% of the >world's coal and 14% of its oil and would exceed the USA as the largest >energy consumer in the world (20%). In India, the energy and oil >consumption >percapita is steadily increasing and by 2025, India would need 60% of the >current Saudi oil production today. > >However, I do not think the world will survive to see oil production peak. > >So Mandy, I do share your 'despair' when I see the developing countries >model their development on the West. I personally do not see any solution >in >the near future, not in my life time, maybe never. Modern societies are not >build on oil, it is build on greed. It is build on the premise that we are >perpetually in need of a 'better' life. We actually assume that life is >improved with technology. Well, has it? > >yunus _________________________________________________________________ Get your mobile ringtones, operator logos and picture messages from MSN Mobile http://msn.smsfactory.no/