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On 07-Mar-05 Ted Harding wrote: > On 07-Mar-05 Ted Harding wrote: >>[...] >> which it seems was released this morning, and this in turn >> led to a PDF file of numbers and rates for the different >> Trusts for 2001-4 by 6-monthly intervals: >> >> http://www.dh.gov.uk/assetRoot/04/10/55/18/04105518.pdf >> > [...] > Well, I've now done this file manipulation (I hope correctly) > for the General Acute Trusts at the beginning of this dataset. > > Using a crude (Sum(cases))/(Sum(cases/rate)) I get (as returned > from the software): > > Apr2001-Sep2001: 0.1368885 > Apr2002-Sep2002: 0.1430201 > Apr2003-Sep2003: 0.1494563 > Apr2004-Sep2004: 0.1490701 > > Oct2001-Mar2002: 0.1417535 > Oct2002-Mar2003: 0.1611403 > Oct2003-Mar2004: 0.1641550 > [...] There are now results at http://www.hpa.org.uk/infections/topics_az/staphylo/ staphyl_six_monthly.htm where you can find 5 graphs. For England, total of all Trust types (Fig.3) the graphs are also annotated with the numbers, giving (for numbers, and rates per 100 bed days): Apr2001-Sep2001: 3598 0.17 Apr2002-Sep2002: 3574 0.171 Apr2003-Sep2003: 3744 0.178 Apr2004-Sep2004: 3519 0.168 Oct2001-Mar2002: 3651 0.172 Oct2002-Mar2003: 3799 0.182 Oct2003-Mar2004: 3940 0.188 The graphs also show "error bars" for rates which, by eye, seem to be about +/- 0.005 in each case. Thus it would indeed seem that for the Summer periods the rate dropped in Apr2004-Sep2004. However, it is pointed out that the bed occupancy data used to calculate this rate refer to the previous period, since they have not yet been made available (the bed occupancy data for the other periods are concurrent, however). Therefore the rate for Apr2004-Sep2004 is not on the same footing as the others, so still cannot be completely trusted. The Winter data, however, have showed a steady increase from year to year. In Fig.1 (rates by type of Trust: General Acute, Specialist and Single Specialty) it can be seen (though numbers are not given) that a) Specialist Trusts have the highest rates (ca. 0.23), and (except for Apr2004-Sep2004), taking error bars into account, the rates are consistent with a steady slight rise, or steady slight fall, either over all consecutive periods or over successive Winter periods and succesive Summary periods. Apr2004-Sep2004 is, however, distinctly lower than the others (ca. 0.20), but is of course subject to the same caveat as above. b) General Acute Trusts have the next highest (ca. 0.15) fluctuating up and down between Summer (low) and Winter (high) but with a clear increase over Summar periods and a clear increase over Winter periods. c) Single Specialty Trusts have the lowest (0.07-0.10) with perhaps on overall downward trend since Apr2002, though the error bars are so wide that no clear inference is possible. From the above, I'm inclined to surmise that the reduction in MRSA which people have been crowing about probably comes from the marked reduction in Specialist Trusts, there being nothing to crow about in the others. Best wishes to all, Ted. -------------------------------------------------------------------- E-Mail: (Ted Harding) <[log in to unmask]> Fax-to-email: +44 (0)870 094 0861 Date: 08-Mar-05 Time: 10:00:53 ------------------------------ XFMail ------------------------------ ****************************************************** Please note that if you press the 'Reply' button your message will go only to the sender of this message. If you want to reply to the whole list, use your mailer's 'Reply-to-All' button to send your message automatically to [log in to unmask] *******************************************************