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Reminder... UNIVERSITY OF HERTFORDSHIRE STATISTICS SEMINAR SERIES Part of the Business School Research Seminar Programme www.herts.ac.uk/business/staff_public/nhspencer_public/seminars Supported by Department of Management Systems, Business School, University of Hertfordshire. Wednesday 15th June 2005, 2pm, room M133, de Havilland campus Reda Lebcir (University of Hertfordshire) Title: "Systems Thinking in Health Care Management: The case of Tuberculosis and HIV control in the Russian Federation" Abstract: "Effective management and delivery of health care is becoming a difficult and complex task. While Governments and patients are spending an ever greater fraction of their income on health, this substantial spending has not translated into an improvement in the quality of health care delivery and the general state of populations health. An important reason for this unsatisfactory state of affairs lies in the way the health care sector is perceived and managed. While the health care sector is a complex system including many interconnected elements, there has been a tendency to focus on improving individuals elements of the health sector instead of taking a holistic view of the system. Therefore, actions which are taken to improve one part of the health care system are ultimately defeated by the reaction of the other parts of the system leading to opposite results and a great waste of valuable resources. In this presentation, I will describe a case study in which System Dynamics simulation modelling has been used to model the transmission dynamics of tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS in the Russian Federation, a country which witnessed an explosion of these two "killer" diseases in the last decade. The model was used as a tool to evaluate policies advocated by the World Health Organisation (WHO) to control the spread of these diseases, and inform decision makers about the best possible actions to be taken to reduce the incidence and prevalence of these diseases." For further information regarding location, parking, etc., please contact Neil Spencer (details below). ********************************************************************** Dr Neil H. Spencer Principal Lecturer in Statistics Director of Statistical Services and Consultancy Unit Business School, University of Hertfordshire, de Havilland Campus, Hatfield, Hertfordshire, AL10 9AB, U.K. Statistical Services and Consultancy Unit Contact Details: Telephone: +44 (0) 1707 285574; Fax: +44 (0) 1707 285410 E-mail: [log in to unmask] WWW: http://www.herts.ac.uk/business/centres/sscu Personal Contact Details: Telephone: +44 (0) 1707 285529; Fax: +44 (0) 1707 285410 E-mail: [log in to unmask] WWW: http://www.herts.ac.uk/business/staff_public/nhspencer_public **********************************************************************