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The next SWORDS meeting of the 2004-2005 programme is scheduled for Tuesday the 23rd of November, 2004. The details are: Title: An Example of Successful Simulation in Practice: The Bed Capacity Implications Model Speakers: David Bensley and Inderpreet Grewaln - Economics & Operational Research Division in Department of Health The meeting will be held at the Mathematics Institute, Cardiff University. Please contact me at the number below if you would like a map. Tea and coffee will be available from 5.30pm in the Internet Café which is just inside the main entrance to the Mathematics Institute. The meeting will commence at 6.00pm in room M0.40 (ground floor). Abstract • Simulation is recognised as a valuable tool in strategic and tactical planning. To be successful it must be ‘fit for purpose’, easy to use, and be credible and comprehensible from a policy and managerial perspective. • Simulation has been used extensively within the Department of Health. The presentation will describe one example of successful simulation, the Bed Capacity Implications Model, which has been flexibly used for a range of both national and local applications. • The Bed Capacity Implications Model is a generic model applicable for medium term rather than day to day planning. It explores the interactions and trade-offs between bed occupancy, cancellations of scheduled hospital operations, long waits for admission in Accident and Emergency Departments and delayed discharges from hospital. • National and local applications of the model will be discussed. • At a National level the model has been used to model the implementation of emergency and elective targets including the implications of introducing Booked Appointment Systems and the impact for NHS Trusts of introducing elective treatment centres in the independent sector. Recently it has been used for modelling the potential impact of military casualties arising from the conflict in Iraq and the impact of major incidents. • Locally the model has been made available to the Health Service as a learning tool for hospitals and health authorities to help with the understanding of trade-offs and the impact of variability. It has been also used to investigate the impact of modernisation programmes, for example the impact of introducing Dedicated Stroke Units and an evaluation of the consequences of a change programme in Orthopaedics. Please contact me if you would like a map or further information. Jonathan Thompson Tel: 029-20875524 E-mail: [log in to unmask]