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RSS MEDICAL SECTION Tuesday 30 November 2.00 - 5.00 (tea at 3.30). To be held at the RSS, 12 Errol Street, London EC1Y 8LX (directions http://www.rss.org.uk/about/direction.html) Attendance is free but registration is required. To register for this meeting please email [log in to unmask] "COMMUNICABLE DISEASE SURVEILLANCE" DR LAURA GREEN, WARWICK UNIVERSITY "TB in cattle: the current surveillance system and investigation of cow to cow transmission" Abstract Bovine tuberculosis is controlled through national and EU legislation. Each herd is tested at 1, 2, 3 or 4 yearly intervals. The rate of testing is dependent upon the known amount of TB within a local geographical area. This control programme is also the surveillance programme for bovine TB. Theoretical modelling of a test and cull strategy where the degree of surveillance is determined by the prevalence of known infection indicates that increasing the test interval could result in an undetected epidemic. DR PADDY FARRINGTON, OPEN UNIVERSITY "Surveillance of infections controlled by vaccination" Abstract Infections that are well controlled by vaccination can only result in small outbreaks, owing to immunity in the population. Using this fact, simple branching process models are developed to describe the spread of infection. The spread is governed by a parameter R, the effective reproduction number: if R > 1 then the infection is not well-controlled and may result in a large epidemic. Classical and Bayesian inference about R may be based on data on outbreak size and duration. The methods will be illustrated using data on measles infection. Mr ANDRE CHARLETT, Health Protection Agency, LONDON "Systematic review of effectiveness of antibiotics in preventing meningococcal disease after a case" Abstract Meningitis is an extremely emotive issue in the United Kingdom. The main cause of this disease is the bacteria Neisseria meningitides. Currently around 2000 cases are reported annually, the case fatality rate being around 10%. The disease is spread by contact with mucus or droplets from the nose and throat of asymptomatic carriers. Current public health interventions are vaccination and chemoprophylaxis. Studies investigating the effectiveness of antibiotic chemoprophylaxis have been relatively small and this has hindered the evidence base. This talk will describe a recently published systematic review of antibiotic prophylaxis and discuss some of the remaining issues in the control of this disease. __________________________________________________ Janet Peacock Professor of Health Statistics School of Health Sciences and Social Care Brunel University Borough Road Isleworth TW7 5DU Tel : 020 8891 0121 x 2503 Email : [log in to unmask]