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SEMINAR: The University of Reading, School of Applied Statistics, room AS-G03 Thursday, February 26, 2pm Philip D. O'Neill (University of Nottingham) http://www.maths.nott.ac.uk/personal/pdo/ Estimating vaccine effects from disease outbreak household data Abstract: We consider the problem of describing and estimating the efficacy of a vaccine, given data on a partially vaccinated population that is made up of households. Our model for vaccine response allows variable random responses, such as failure or partial protection, and furthermore takes into account both protective effects, and potential reduction in infectivity. An underlying stochastic model is used to describe disease spread. Inferences about the parameters of interest are made using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The methods are illustrated with a dataset describing an outbreak of variola minor. All welcome. Travel information: http://www.rdg.ac.uk/Statistics/info/direc.html Other seminars: http://www.rdg.ac.uk/Statistics/diary/seminars.html Posted by: Howard Grubb ([log in to unmask])