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Details may also be found at http://www.orsoc.org.uk/region/study/health.htm#one > Date: MONDAY 3 February 2003, 17:00-18:00** > Venue: Euston Centre, room 3.2 > Speaker: Prof Sally McClean, University of Ulster, UK > > Title: Using Phase-type Distributions to Model the Behaviour of Hospital > Patients > Abstract: Time spent in hospital by patients may be described in terms of > phases, using terms that have been identified by clinicians, such as: > diagnosis, assessment, rehabilitative and long-stay. Phase-type > distributions, > which describe the time to absorption of a continuous time Markov chain, are > > therefore appropriate to analyse data on lengths of stay of hospital > patients. > The phases (or transient states of the Markov chain) can be interpreted in > terms of increasing severity of any illnesses being treated. This leads to an > > identification of short-stay, medium-stay and long-stay patients, with the > phase-type distribution interpreted as a mixture of such components. > Differential effects of two covariates, age of patient at admission and year > of > admission, are shown on the different phases of the distribution. > Extending this approach we can regard spells in and out of hospital as > interacting phase type behaviour, where patients may move from phases in > hospital to home and phases at home to hospital; death is an absorbing state > > for both distributions. We may thus derive probabilities of moving from one > > phase to another, along with the mean number of days spent in each phase. > Again > these data were analysed to show differential effects of the two covariates: > > age of patient at first admission and year of first admission. > Such an approach can be extended to included costs where different phases > (e.g. > short-stay, medium-stay, and long-stay) and different situations (e.g. > hospital > and home) have differential costs. > > Next Talk... > ________________________________________________________________________________ > Date: TUESDAY 11 March 2003 > Speaker: Prof Gary W. Harrison, College of Charleston, USA > Venue: Euston Centre, room tbc > Title: tbc > > ----------- > Dr. T.J. Chaussalet > University of Westminster > CSCS, Dept of Mathematics > 9-18 Euston Centre > London NW1 3ET, UK > Tel: +44(0)207 911 5000 ext 4310 > Fax: +44(0)207 915 5438 > Email: [log in to unmask] > ----------- > PLEASE READ: This e-mail and its attachments are intended for the above > named only and may be confidential. If they have come to you in error you > must not copy or show them to anyone, nor should you take any action based > on them, other than to notify the error by replying to the sender. > > Any views expressed in this message are those of the individual sender, > except where the sender specifically states otherwise. > > > ----------- Dr. T.J. Chaussalet University of Westminster CSCS, Dept of Mathematics 9-18 Euston Centre London NW1 3ET, UK Tel: +44(0)207 911 5000 ext 4310 Fax: +44(0)207 915 5438 Email: [log in to unmask] ----------- PLEASE READ: This e-mail and its attachments are intended for the above named only and may be confidential. If they have come to you in error you must not copy or show them to anyone, nor should you take any action based on them, other than to notify the error by replying to the sender. Any views expressed in this message are those of the individual sender, except where the sender specifically states otherwise.