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Many thanks all who replied to my query on modelling populations of water birds - all of the responses were very helpful and interesting. Here's a quick summary of some of the replies... I asked about using WinBUGS to fit models to time series of population estimates for a number of water bird species in eastern Australia and then doing forward simulations (in R) with posterior parameter samples exported from WinBUGS (coda) to assess extinction risks. Bob O'Hara, Ted Catchpole and Mick McCarthy reassured me that this was a sensible approach. Mick also pointed out that I could calculate a range of useful metrics rather than risk of extinction. Finn Krogstad suggested that I use the posterior predictive distribution and run the whole thing in BUGS. Lara Jamieson and Steve Brooks pointed me to their recent papers looking at similar data (http://www.statslab.cam.ac.uk/~steve/mypapers) and adopting a reversible jump MCMC approach to model selection and averaging. cheers Michael Michael Bedward Biodiversity Research & Management Division NSW National Parks & Wildlife Service PO Box 1967, Hurstville, NSW 2220 Australia [log in to unmask] ph: 61-(0)2-95856493 fax: 61-(0)2-95856606 This message is intended for the addressee named and may contain confidential information. If you are not the intended recipient, please delete it and notify the sender. Views expressed in this message may be those of the individual sender, and are not necessarily the views of the NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service. ------------------------------------------------------------------- This list is for discussion of modelling issues and the BUGS software. For help with crashes and error messages, first mail [log in to unmask] To mail the BUGS list, mail to [log in to unmask] Before mailing, please check the archive at www.jiscmail.ac.uk/lists/bugs.html Please do not mail attachments to the list. To leave the BUGS list, send LEAVE BUGS to [log in to unmask] If this fails, mail [log in to unmask], NOT the whole list