New figures announced today show a 35% shortfall in provision of affordable homes in the next 15 years will cause a crisis for planners and policy-makers.

Until 2016, 230,000 homes a year are needed to house England’s growing population. 85,000 of these will have to be subsidised by Government funding, if those on lower incomes are not to be left behind. This is according to new research by Alan Holmans at the University of Cambridge for the National Housing Federation and the Town and Country Planning Association.

These figures, based on revised Government population projections, are solely for newly arising need. It will leave the existing backlog of unmet housing need, estimated to be 650,000 households in temporary, overcrowded or poor housing, untouched.

The report warns of a substantial shortfall in housing provision versus demand. It projects a shortfall of 10,000 affordable homes and 20,000 owner occupied homes every year. It argues that this shortfall will mean that the supply of housing for those on lower incomes in particular will be insufficient.

The research gives a regional breakdown of household growth. It implies that the majority of the new homes will be needed in and around London and the South East. It is the growing number of people living alone and longer, and greater than expected migration that is driving the increasing need for homes, the report argues.

The costs of not meeting this need will be a severe increase in overcrowding and therefore a drop in housing standards. If demand is not met, housing costs are likely to increase and those on low or moderate incomes may become priced out of the housing market further. Already, according to the latest Government figures, the average house price for England and Wales is £106,452. To buy such a house you would have to earn around £33,709 – well above average wages. Waiting lists for affordable housing are set to increase.

Gideon Amos, Director of the TCPA said:

"The report we are publishing today uncovers a new scandal of housing need in England coming shortly after the Government announced - just before Christmas - a cut in the number of homes to be provided in the South East. The homeless and the dispossessed can apparently no longer match up to the growing forces ranged against the creation of new housing.

"To meet this new demand the next government – and society as a whole - must develop a new vision of how to create the homes and neighbourhoods we need. New initiatives such as greener, ‘low impact’ house types must be developed to minimise impact on greenfield sites and a commitment from the top is needed to clean up brownfield sites. A Government which lacks vision to answer the problem cannot expect it to go away."