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Guest Speaker :Prof Roger Cooke, Professor of Applications of Decision Theory, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands 10 Years Experience with Expert Judgement Since the appearance of Experts in Uncertainty, considerable experience has been acquired with applications of quantitative expert judgement. Areas of application include accident consequence modelling, option pricing, real estate investment forecasting, human error prediction in flood management, dredging, dike safety and NOx emissions. In all of these applications, experts assess their subjective distributions for variables of interest and also for variables in the relevant fields whose values are known post hoc. This affords the possibility to quantify expert perfomance and also the performance of different combinations of expert judgements. The talk will explain performance assessment, performance-based combinations of expert judgments, and will discuss a few illustrative applications. Venue: Department of Management Science University of Strathclyde, 40 George Street, Glasgow. 2nd October 2001 5.30pm for 6.00pm Refreshments Provided