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Ray, It is GIGO not GOGO. Pretty funny though. Steve --- Ray Lanier <[log in to unmask]> wrote: > Hello fp;ls, > > Chris Hope replied to Steven B.: > > > At 07:29 AM 7/24/01 -0600, you wrote: > > >Here is an article about NASA's new super computer. It suggest that > issues > > >about climate change will be resolved through the use of models. I > post > this > > >to raise the EE issue of the use of models in environmental science. > I've > > >always been dubious about the use of models by ecologists in place of > actual > > >evidence. I think that the use of models in ecology is similar to the > use > of > > >correlation in economics. Both are substitutes for "real" science in > the > > >sense that they rely on a certain type of faith. Anyway, things have > been > > >quite, so I thought I'd stir the pot. > > > > > > >http://www.enn.com/news/enn-stories/2001/07/07232001/supercomputer_44384.as > p > > >?site=email > > Chris: > > > > If you read the scientists rather than the reporter, they are much > more > > sober in their assessments. A factor of ten increase in computing > power > > will undoubtedly help, but the uncertainty in the basic science will > still > > make exact climate prediction impossible. > > Ray here: > Imho, there is no such thing as "exact" predictions of climate or > anything > else. All analysis depends on the validity of the fundamental data > including relationships and uncertainty, etc necessitate consideration > of > probabilites. > > Chris: > > > > My hope is that the scientists will use some of the increased power to > run > > 'ensemble' forecasts with slightly different initial conditions, as > they > do > > in weather forecasting, to see which predictions are robust, and which > are > > fragile. > > Ray here: > I agree. It seems to me that the *use* of computers is not > fundamentally > different from the *use* of the old hand-cranked Freiden calculators. > Their > significance is that the power of the computer tool permits us to manage > more complexity, manage a much larger set of data, look at more > alternatives, test for sensitivities, etc. in a phenominally more > informative manner and with great facility. > > But it is still "GOGO" = garbage in, garbage out. > > Ray > > > > > Chris > > > > > > > > Chris Hope, Judge Institute of Management Studies, > > University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1AG, UK. > > Voice: +44 1223 338194. Fax: +44 1223 339701 > > e-mail: [log in to unmask] ===== "In a nutshell, he [Steve] is 100% unadulterated evil. I do not believe in a 'Satan', but this man is as close to 'the real McCoy' as they come." --Jamey Lee West __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Make international calls for as low as $.04/minute with Yahoo! Messenger http://phonecard.yahoo.com/