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Statistical modelling for life and non-life insurance risks ----------------------------------------------------------- A meeting organised by the General Applications Section Tuesday 11th December 2001, 5.00pm (Tea: 4.30pm) RSS, Errol Street, London PROFESSOR ANGUS MACDONALD (Heriot-Watt University) The Cost of Genetic Information: How Much and Who Pays? Synopsis: Every breakthrough in human genetics seems to be followed by claims that it will create a new "genetic underclass" of people unable to get life and health insurance. Of course, more precise information about the risk of death and disease could affect the cost of private insurance, but by how much? For their part, insurers worry that people who know they suffer a higher risk of disease may be more likely to buy insurance, so they might be charging inadequate premiums. But how much additional risk is really identified by genetic information? In fact, both genetical prognoses and insurance underwriting are much less precise than is often imagined. We will present some mathematical models of genetics and insurance that show the fears, on both sides, to be greatly exaggerated. DR PETER ENGLAND (Senior Consultant, EMB Consultancy) Statistical Analysis of Risk in General Insurance: Report from the Workface Synopsis: It is probably true to say that statistical science is used more in General Insurance than other areas such as Life Assurance and Pensions. Techniques used routinely will be outlined, with particular emphasis on the analysis of company wide risk using dynamic financial analysis (DFA), which draws heavily on simulation techniques. All are welcome --- no need to book ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Dr. Karen Vines Department of Statistics The Open University Walton Hall Milton Keynes MK7 6AA e-mail: [log in to unmask]