The Kyoto Protocol on climate change, a 'pinnacle of economic and environmental
globalisation', is under threat from inflation and hot air. So says The Kyoto Protocol: A Guide
and Assessment, a landmark analysis from Michael Grubb and other researchers at the Royal
Institute of International Affairs, and the first major book on the Protocol.
Sir John Browne, Chief Executive of BP Amoco, calls the book 'the definitive study of the first
crucial step, as the international community finds ways to deal with a challenge without
precedent'. The chairman of the Kyoto negotiations, Argentine Ambassador Raul A.
Estrada-Oyuela, describes it as 'the most comprehensive analysis'; and The Rt Hon John
Prescott MP, UK Deputy Prime Minister, says 'The Kyoto Protocol was a milestone of
enormous significance. I welcome this book.'
But The Kyoto Protocol points to many dangers. It estimates that Russia and Ukraine will have
'hundreds of millions of tonnes' of surplus emission allowances - dubbed 'hot air' - that they
will not need. The Protocol's innovative emission trading mechanisms could let them sell
these allowances to the United States. Trading such a large surplus would inflate and devalue
emission allowances and undermine the very basis of the Protocol, and set dangerous
precedents for the future. 'The windfall surplus will be far bigger than negotiators at Kyoto ever
conceived', warns Grubb. 'Unless they tackle this it will undermine Kyoto's mechanisms and
commitments and could allow US emissions to keep on rising.' The book's analysis
suggests that recent EU proposals to limit US use of the mechanisms won’t work unless they
also tackle the surplus in supply - a proposal that provoked a furious response from the
Russians and the US in the negotiations in Bonn earlier this week.
Published as negotiators return from these difficult talks - with many key negotiators coming to
London for RIIA's conference - the book proposes novel ways to exclude such surpluses while
preserving emissions trading itself, which was 'central to the agreement'. It advocates that
buyers of permits should share liability if targets are not met. The book also proposes to apply
charges to such international transfers, using the revenues to support disaster relief,
adaptation to climate change, and development of new, environmentally friendly technologies.
Despite the problems, the study concludes that the Kyoto Protocol will be seen as 'one of the
defining achievements of international diplomacy in the late twentieth century.'
The Kyoto Protocol: a Guide and Assessment, by Michael Grubb, Christiaan Vrolijk and Duncan
Brack, will be published on Monday 14 June at the Royal Institute of International Affairs (price
18.95 pounds sterling pbk, 384pp), at the reception of RIIA's international conference on
Implementing the Kyoto Protocol. A pre-publication meeting in Bonn presented results of the
study to negotiators; a report and audio coverage is available on the ENB Web Site,
www.iisd.ca, report for 5 June.
For advanced copies of the book please contact Nikki Kerrigan of the Energy and
Environmental Programme on Tel: +44 (0)171 314 3639, Fax: +44 (0)171 957 5710, or email:
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