Greetings,

I don't watch TV news; this was just brought to my attention. I'm pleased
that mainstream media is devoting some time to this. They certainly have
given time to techno-optimists, economic growth solutions, and
religious/charity approaches. Maybe, if we get through Y2K without much
collateral damage :-), they'll start talking about overshoot, natural
wealth, and optimum population numbers.

Steve

ABC NEWS SHOW:
WORLD NEWS TONIGHT WITH PETER JENNINGS
(6:30 pm ET) JANUARY 7, 1999
Transcript # 99010703-j04

HEADLINE: A CLOSER LOOK
BYLINE: JOHN MARTIN, PETER JENNINGS
HIGHLIGHT:



MEGA-CITIES OF THE FUTURE


PETER JENNINGS: This week, as you know, we have been taking
"A Closer Look" at how our lives are expected to change in the 21st
century. Tonight, the number of lives that might change.

(voice-over) A hundred years ago, the world's population was
about 1.6 billion people. Today, it is six billion, and it may grow
to 9 billion in the next 50 years.

(on camera) The pressure on the world's resources is growing all
the time. And while technologists believe that ways will be found to
accommodate us all more efficiently, there may be some places
you'd rather not live. Here is ABC's John Martin.

JOHN MARTIN, ABC News: (voice-over) Olivia was born just
a few days ago in New Jersey to Cynthia and Pierre Cailliarec (ph).
She is their second child.

PIERRE CAILLIAREC: Hi, Olivia. This is your big sister, Charlotte.

JOHN MARTIN: (voice-over) A noisy world away in New Delhi,
in a hospital teeming with people, another second child. A boy,
not yet named, has just been born to Seema Sharma (ph).
These two babies tell us a lot about life in the coming millennium.

In Olivia's industrialized world, just about as many people will be
born as will die. She may live 80 years. But in Seema's son's world,
more people will be born than will die, and he may not live even
55 years. By that time, there could be three billion people of
child-bearing age in the world, 240 million of them in India alone.

CARL HAUB, Population Reference Bureau: We know the
approximate number of future parents. What we do not know
is the number of hildren that they are going to have.

JOHN MARTIN: (voice-over) This uncertainty is especially
worrisome in Africa, where in many nations women still have
six or seven children and nearly half the population is under 15.

(on camera) This dynamic, spreading across the globe,
but mostly in the developing world, is creating another
phenomenon -- the mega-city.

WERNER FORNOS, The Population Institute: We'll be looking
at 21 cities with over 10 million population, and only two of them
will be in the industrialized world, New York and Los Angeles.

JOHN MARTIN: (voice-over) The 19 other new mega-cities will be
in places least able to support them, including Nigeria and India.
But there's a way to curb such growth, experts agree, by assuring
women two things -- education and jobs. Armed with both, women
are more likely to have fewer children.

SAROJ PACHAURI, Population Council - India: If people don't want
large families, then our efforts should really be to provide services
to them so that they are able to limit the size of their families.

JOHN MARTIN: (voice-over) A limit, say demographers, that may
finally stabilize the world's population after 300 years of growth.
In fact, because of family planning, demographer George Moffett
says the population train is already slowing down.

GEORGE MOFFETT, President, Principia College: The problem is
it will be 50, 60 years before it comes to a stop, and that -- that's
what makes those 60 years so critical.

JOHN MARTIN: (voice-over) Moffett says political instability is
the biggest threat as Seema's son grows up and India surpasses
China as the most populous country in the world. As for Olivia,
her parents seem aware of the potential perils of life across the
globe in the 21st century.

CYNTHIA CAILLIAREC: I feel blessed that we are in such a
great part of the world and a very privileged part of the world.

JOHN MARTIN: (voice-over) A world that now produces one million
more members of the human family every 96 hours.
John Martin, ABC News,Washington.

PETER JENNINGS: Tomorrow, we'll begin a new segment on the
broadcast, "The Century" on Friday. And our first effort will be to
look at America as the 20th century began. Hope you'll join us.

When we come back this evening, "The Body" and a certain statehouse.
(Commercial Break)


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Copyright(c) 1999 LEXIS-NEXIS, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc.
All rights Reserved.


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