Greetings, and apologies for cross-posting.
For those who may be interested in this topic, the following book chapter on
Bayesian sensitivity analysis is now available for downloading at
www.bath.ac.uk/~masdd
Draper D, Saltelli A, Tarantola S (1999). Scenario and parametric
sensitivity and uncertainty analyses in nuclear waste disposal risk
assessment: the case of {\sf GESAMAC}. In {\it Mathematical and Statistical
Methods for Sensitivity Analysis\/} (Saltelli A, Chan K, Scott M, eds.), New
York: Wiley (forthcoming). (Shows that variance-based sensitivity analyses
are not fully adequate in determining the factors most responsible for high
radiologic doses arising from the failure of underground storage facilities
for nuclear waste, and that about 30\% of the overall predictive uncertainty
for log dose arises from uncertainty about the scenario describing how the
facility will fail---a source of uncertainty previously largely ignored or
treated qualitatively. Also explores the use of projection pursuit
regression in sensitivity analysis.)
Comments welcome. Best wishes, David Draper
P.S. For those who may be interested in a different topic, two additional
recent chapters on nonstandard issues in sample surveys (the effects of
nonprobability sampling and model assumption errors) are also available for
downloading at the same site (comments welcome on this material too).
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Dr. David Draper
Statistics Group web http://www.bath.ac.uk/~masdd
Department of email [log in to unmask]
Mathematical Sciences voice UK (01225) 826 222, nonUK +44 1225 826 222
University of Bath fax UK (01225) 826 492, nonUK +44 1225 826 492
Claverton Down
Bath BA2 7AY England
Interesting quotes, number 8 in a series:
since feeling is first
who pays any attention
to the syntax of things
will never wholly kiss you;
wholly to be a fool
while Spring is in the world
my blood approves,
and kisses are a better fate
than wisdom
lady i swear by all flowers. Don't cry
- -- the best gesture of my brain is less than
your eyelids' flutter which says
we are for each other: then
laugh, leaning back in my arms
for life's not a paragraph
And death i think is no parenthesis
-- e.e. cummings
Love is two minutes fifty-two seconds of squishing noises. It shows your
mind isn't clicking right.
-- Johnny Rotten
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