Royal Statistical Society Highland Local Group

	Meeting announcement


	
	 Wednesday 24th November at 1pm:

	venue: Fraser-Noble Lecture Theatre (3), King's College

	JOINT MEETING WITH ST ANDREWS UNIVERSITY

	speakers: Gillian Raab (Napier University), David Clayton (MRC, Cambridge),
	Denis Mollison (Heriot Watt University)

	programme:

	1pm  Gillian Raab (Napier University)

	Balance in Cluster Randomised Trials

	2.15 pm coffee break

	2.30 pm  David Clayton (MRC Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge)

	Fitting complex random effect models with standard software using data 
	augmentation: an application to a study of male and female fecundability.

	3.45 pm coffee break
	
	4pm Denis Mollison (Heriot Watt University)

	Modelling ecological and epidemic dynamics

	5.30 end of meeting
	-------------------------------------------------------

	Following the meeting a meal has been arranged in the 
	private dining room in the Staff Refectory, King's College.
 	Anyone wishing to join the speakers and committee for 
	this meal are most welcome. Please contact myself 
	by email if you intend to joint the party (by monday 22nd at latest)


	ABSTRACTS


	Gillian Raab

	title:    Balance in cluster randomised trials

	Abstract:    
	Intervention studies where the unit of analysis
	is a group of  individuals, but inferences are required
	for individuals within the groups, are becoming 
	increasing popular, especially for the evaluation 
	of health policies. Although these studies may involve many individuals,
	the number of units of randomisation can be small. 
	Thus they can be vulnerable to a poorly balanced randomisation.
	This talk will review the literature on the design of such cluster 
	randomised studies and disuss the important role of balancing
	known features of the larger units in the design.

	David Clayton

	title:  Fitting complex random effect models with standard software using
data 
	augmentation: an application to a study of male and female fecundability.

	Abstract:
	We discuss fitting of a complex random effect model using a standard 
	statistical package (Stata) to carry out block-wise Gibbs sampling within 
	a multi-processor computing environment. The application involves a 
	dataset concerning artificial insemination by donor
	(AID). Success or failure at each or 12,100 menstrual cycles
 	is modelled with a mixed model with random effects due to woman, conception
 	attempt within woman, semen donor, donation within donor, and the
 	treating physician. Given the availability of software within Stata
 	to fit a model with single random effect, the full model can be fitted
 	by an alternating imputation algorithm (Clayton & Rasbash, 1999) 
	implemented with five copies of Stata running on separate processors
 	and communicating via disk files. 




	Denis Mollison

	title: Modelling ecological and epidemic dynamics


	Abstract:
	Questions of invasion, growth, equilibrium and persistence are
	of great importance in population modelling.
	The talk will review and compare different types of models,
	particularly stochastic and deterministic,
	with both ecological and epidemic illustrations.
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	Thursday December 9th
	6pm Meston Building Rm 302, University of Aberdeen

	Speaker: Dr Christl Donnelly (Wellcome Centre, University of Oxford)
	title: BSE Incidence and Case clustering - Is Scotland a special case?

	Abstract: Measures such as odds ratios and relative risks are very useful at
	quantifying associations but give little insights into the effects of
	various factors on the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. On the
	other hand, estimation methods applied to dynamically relevant parameters
	such as the basic reproduction number have often lacked statistical rigour
	and appropriate quantification of uncertainty. Appropriate methods of
	analysis are examined for transmission dynamics of bovine spongiform
	encephalopathy (mad cow disease), bovine tuberculosis (a disease infecting
	badgers as well as cattle), and dengue fever.


	


	web page:http://www.maths.abdn.ac.uk/maths/department/rss/highlands.html
	
_______________________________________________________

Dr Andrew B. Lawson
Department of Mathematical Sciences
University of Aberdeen
Aberdeen
AB24 3UE
UK

phone: 44-1224-272615 (voice mail)
fax: 44-1224-272607
email: [log in to unmask]
________________________________________________________


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