Dear Sir or Madam,

You and any interested colleagues are invited to a forecasting seminar and
workshop at the University's Hatfield Campus on December 21st, 1999.

The seminar consists of two main presentations on forecasting and strategic
planning; a session designed to address specific delegate issues; a poster
session and a panel coordinated discussion on risk management and
forecasting.  Delegates will be able to discuss individual issues on a
one-to-one basis with our experts.  

You are invited, in advance of the seminar, to send in your own data for
the development of a short/medium term forecasting model (or regression)
for one time series.  Alternatively, suggestions on how to solve a long
term forecasting or strategic planning problem will be made. Although all
the detailed analysis of data will be done in advance of the seminar, you
are welcome to bring data along for discussion on the day.  All this is
included in the registration fee.  

A variety of techniques will be used to analyse your short to medium term
data, and a report will be compiled outlining the results.  Due to the
complexity of long term forecasting and strategic planning, the report will
make recommendations on the issues and methodologies to be considered.  To
enable us to assess the forecasting accuracy please exclude the last two
observations in your data set.  Data and results will be treated in a
confidential manner, but with your permission, we would like to use a
scaled version to create the posters.  Additionally, you are welcome to
contribute one to two pages outlining the issues that arise in forecasting
in your company.  This will be included in the poster session.

The registration fee is £250 per person.  Please find included the
programme (below) and the registration form (as an attachment).  The
closing date for submission of data for analysis is November 30th, 1999.

I look forward to meeting you at Hatfield,

Yours faithfully,

Dr. Takis Spiropoulos					
Senior Lecturer, Management Sciences Group,			
Tel: 01707 285467
Fax: 01707 285410
Email: [log in to unmask]


FORECASTING SEMINAR/WORKSHOP

DECEMBER 21, 1999
UNIVERSITY OF HERTFORDSHIRE, BUSINESS SCHOOL,
HATFIELD CAMPUS, MAIN BUILDING, ROOM D102

Programme

9.30   Registration and Coffee

10.00  Introduction 
       (to be announced)

10.05  Short and Medium Term Forecasting (1)
       Dr. Takis Spiropoulos

11.05  Coffee

11.20  Long Term Forecasting and Strategic Planning (2)
       Mr. Peter Shearer

12.20  Panel discussion 
       Delegate elected topics on forecasting techniques and related issues

13.00  Lunch

14.00  Poster session and one-to-one consultation (3)

15.15  Coffee

16.00  Panel co-ordinated discussion on Risk Management and Forecasting (4)

1.  Short and medium term forecasting
Univariate techniques: Exponential smoothing, Classical, or Bayesian
methods?  Advantages, disadvantages, criteria for model selection.
Financial data and volatility analysis.  Multivariate techniques:
Regression, Transfer function and more sophisticated models.  Examples will
include forecasting sales, energy consumption and stock exchange data,
forecasting and measuring performance using balanced scorecards, modelling
the advertising expenditure - sales relationship and developing statistical
supply chain models.  The session will also discuss trends in forecasting
and related computing issues.

2.  Long term forecasting and strategic planning
Event-timing forecasts (e.g. 'when will the current uptrend reverse?') are
crucial in strategic planning.  This session will describe cyclical
indicators which enable event-timing forecasts to be made 1 to 10 years
ahead.  Predictions of the severity of trend reversals can also be made.
Examples will be given from the presenter's experience, covering forecasts
of sales, employment, raw material prices, housing starts and financial
variables, and an indication will be given of the scale of the financial
and strategic benefits obtained.

3. Poster session and one-to-one consultation
Forecasting models and results for short and medium term forecasting,
suggestions on how to develop appropriate models for long term forecasting
and strategic planning.  Summaries of the delegates' own difficulties in
producing forecasts.  The issues will be discussed further during the panel
co-ordinated session.

4. Risk management and forecasting
After a brief presentation on the concept of risk, a panel co-ordinated
discussion will take place on risks associated with forecasting.
Identification of risks, implications of good and bad forecasts, risk
management policies.   When do we believe other people's forecasts?   When
is a forecast convincing?