I have been asked to forward this announcement regarding the June 1999
WASHINGTON DC ISF Conference to the appropriate lists.
Dave Reilly
Automatic Forecasting Systems
19th International Symposium on Forecasting
June 27-30, 1999 ( The Capital Hilton ( Washington, DC
Conference Registration
Conference Theme: Strategic Forecasting For Government and Business
Keynote Speakers include David Hendry (Oxford University), Larry
Thompson (The Urban Institute), and a panel of experts on the
International Financial Crisis.
Track Sessions tentatively include
Business Forecasting
Government Forecasting
Forecasting Methods
Time Series Analysis
Data Issues
Forecast Evaluation
Forecasting-related Issues-
management of forecasting units,
issues about the field of forecasting,
teaching forecasting
Scenario Analysis--including IO Models, CGE models
Long-range/Futurist Forecasts
Global Forecasting
Judgmental Forecasts
Macroeconomic and Business Cycles Forecasting
Agricultural Forecasting
Financial Forecasting
Technology Forecasting
Energy Forecasting
Forecasting Practice--various applied subject areas
Tentative Program
Sunday, June 27, 1999
1:00 - 5:00 pm: Registration for Symposium
5:00 - 7:00 pm: Welcome reception at The Capital Hilton
Monday, June 28, 1999
7:00 - 8:30 am: Breakfast
8:30 - 10:00 am: Plenary Session
10:00 - 10:30 am: Coffee Break
10:30 - 12 noon: Sessions
12:15 - 1:45 pm: Lunch
2:00 - 3:30 pm: Sessions
3:30 - 4:00 pm: Coffee Break
4:00 - 5:30 pm: Sessions
7:00 - 10:00 pm: Reception at Russian Embassy
Tuesday, June 29, 1999
7:00 - 8:30 am: Breakfast
8:30 - 10:00 am: Keynote Speaker
10:00 - 10:30 am: Coffee Break
10:30 - 12 noon: Sessions
12:15 - 1:45 pm: Lunch
2:00 - 3:30 pm: Sessions
3:30 - 4:00 pm: Coffee Break
4:00 - 5:30 pm: Sessions
7:00 - 10:00 pm: Dinner cruise on Odyssey
Wednesday, June 30, 1999
7:00 - 8:30 am: Breakfast
8:30 - 10:00 am: Keynote Speaker
10:00 - 10:30 am: Coffee Break
10:30 - 12 noon: Sessions
12:15 - 1:45 pm: Lunch/Buffet
Pre-Conference Workshops
Sunday, June 27, 1999
Workshop 1: Elements of Forecasting
This short course will follow in outline the recent textbook 'Elements
of Forecasting' by Francis Diebold. It is intended for those needing an
introduction or review of analytic forecasting techniques. Topics to be
covered include ARIMA, smoothing, and regression models and forecast
evaluation and combination. Examples will be demonstrated using the
econometric package EViews. Both the textbook and the student version
of the software will be provided to each student.
Hosted by Charlie Hallahan, Economic Research Service, U.S. Department
of Agriculture.
4 hours: 1:00 p.m. - 5:00 p.m. Fee: $200
Workshop 2: Robust Regression Analysis of Time Series Data
This will be a comprehensive examination of forecasting models, focusing
on robust methods capable of identifying very accurate lead and lag
effects. Straightforward approaches, using real data, will be used to
construct powerful models incorporating the detection of local time
trends and level shift variables, changes in parameters and model forms.
Participants are invited to submit data (http://www.autobox.com), which
will be used in this seminar. Participants will receive a student
version of AUTOBOX along with the User's Guide, plus 90 days of free
telephone consulting time, a value of more than $2500.
Hosted by David Reilly, Automatic Forecasting Systems, Inc.
4 hours: 1:00 p.m. - 5:00 p.m. Fee: $250
Please Note:
Workshops are not a part of the regular ISF program. Separate
registration fees are required and are payable in advance (on
registration form) or at the registration desk.
Social Programs
Sunday, June 27, 1999
WELCOMING RECEPTION
An informal reception will be held at the Capital Hilton.
2 hours: 5:00 p.m. to 7:00 p.m. Cost included in the registration fee.
Monday, June 28, 1999
AN EVENING AT THE EMBASSY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
A buffet reception will be served the Embassy of the Russian Federation,
originally called the Soviet Embassy Complex, built in Washington in
1974 on Twelve acres near the Washington Cathedral and Georgetown.
Transportation to and from the Capital Hilton will be provided.
3 hours: 7:00 p.m. to 10:00 p.m. Cost included in the registration
fee.
Tuesday, June 29, 1999
ABOARD THE ODYSSEY DINNER CRUISE
Dinner and dancing on board the Odyssey, which cruises along the
historic and scenic shores of the Potomac, from the heart of the
District to Georgetown. Transportation to and from the Capital Hilton
will be provided.
4 1/2 hours: 6:00 p.m. to 10:30 p.m. Fee: $50.00 per person.
Wednesday, June 30, 1999
WARDROBE CONSULTATION AT NORDSTROM'S (Tentative)
The Personal Touch Department at Nordstrom's in Pentagon City has
offered to provide a fashion show and wardrobe consultation at an
informal breakfast for interested spouses. Details to be announced
later.
REGISTRATION FORM
The Registration Fee for the complete conference includes: Conference
pack, Sunday Welcoming Reception, Monday and Tuesday Lunches, and Monday
Reception at the Russian Embassy. Registration for non-members also
includes a one-year membership of the International Institute of
Forecasters, a one-year subscription to the International Journal of
Forecasting, and the IIF Newsletter.
Have you sent your 1999 IIF membership dues to IIF Membership
Secretary? Yes ____ No ____
If 'no,' use Non-IIF Member rates (and join now). If 'yes,' use IIF
member rates.
IIF Member
Before April 16, 1999
$400
$___
After April 16, 1999
$485
$___
Non-IIF Member
Before April 16, 1999
$485
$___
After April 16, 1999
$570
$___
Full-Time Students
(Xerox of Student ID required)
Before April 16, 1999
$175
$___
After April 16, 1999
$200
$___
Day Rates:
Circle Date:
Monday,June 28 Tuesday,June 29 Wednesday,June 30
Before April 16, 1999
$200
$___
After April 16, 1999
$225
$___
Group Rates
(per person)
(Provide 3 or more registrations
from same organization )
Before April 16, 1999
$300
$___
After April 16, 1999
$365
$___
Please register me for:
Workshop 1 (Elements of Forecasting)
$200
$___
Workshop 2 (Forecasting using Autobox)
$250
$___
I would like ____ tickets for the
Odyssey Cruise on Tuesday, June 29
$50 each
$___
ENCLOSED IS TOTAL
PAYMENT IN US$ FOR:
TOTAL:
$___
Payment in $US dollars and made payable to:
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE OF FORECASTERS: ISF99
Please check as appropriate: Check _____ Mastercard _____ VISA _____
Credit Card Number ___________________________ Expiration Date:
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If Company Card, provide Code: _______________
Name on Credit Card (PLEASE PRINT):
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Signature:
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Credit Card Mailing Address:
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Name:_________________________________________________________
Address:______________________________________________________
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Telephone:_______________________ Fax:________________________
e-mail:_______________________________________________________
Preferred Name (for Name Tag):
____________________________________________
Name of 'Significant Other' (for Name Tag):
_______________________________
Mail this form to:
Peg Young, Immigration & Naturalization Service, 425 I Street, NW (Room
5309)
Washington, DC 20536, USA
Phone: (202) 514-9090 Fax: (202) 305-0036 e-mail:[log in to unmask]
ISF'99
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