Seminar in Computer Science at Birkbeck College
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Paul Snow (USA)
Title: Structured Deliberation for Dynamic Uncertain Inference
Dynamic uncertain inference is the formation of opinions based upon
evidence
or argument whose availability is neither disclosed to the analyst in
advance nor disclosed all at once. Normative accounts of belief change
which
work well when the analyst has prior notice of well-designed experiments
and
their possible outcomes may not be applicable to less tidy occasions of
inference. In addition, there is the clerical challange of keeping track
of
what has been observed, what related to what, and how. This talk begins
with
a discussion of subjective evaluation in general. An approach to
deliberation similar to what is practiced in the multi-attribute utility
modeling community is then suggested for dynamic credibility assessment.
Features of the proposed technique are explained throught their
application
to a celebrated French murder investigation. The method presented may be
reconciled with Bayesian belief models by noting that the latter lack a
consensus view of how stable beliefs form in a first place. Thus, the
ideas
presented here may be taken as an account of original belief formation,
and
so complementarity rather than antagonostic to subjective probability
methods.
(Joint work with Marianne Belis, Ecole Centrale d'Electronique, Paris,
France)
Friday 20th August, 4.00 pm, Room 121, North Block of Senate House
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Please pass on this information to any members of staff, postgraduates
and others in your department who might be interested in attending.
The room is on the first floor of the North Block, Senate House
of London University, Malet Street, London WC1, and NOT in the
main college building. Please do not take the lift since it does
not stop on the first floor. Entry to the Computer Science Department
is controlled by a security lock. To gain access, phone extension
6700, or 6711.
A map of the area is available on the web side "http://www.bbk.ac.uk".
Click "college map" on the left column. Location 9 is the North Block
of Senate House.
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