Katherleen wrote:
> for the scissors/rocks/paper game
> although you might be able to predict the "en masse" average
> behavior better in the unconstrained case you would be less likely to
> predict the specific behavior. In fact, you probably would only
> correctly predict the specific behavior 1/3 of the time.
> In contrast, in the constrained case, fairly simply models of the
> actor/agent/person should predict specific behavior more than 1/3 of the
> time.
Yes but prediction *en masse* (given constriction on individual
behaviour) was the issue! I quote your earlier e-mail:
> I would argue just the opposite -
> that because in a social system agents are embedded, the macro behavior of
> the collective is MORE predictable. Embedding serves as a form of
> constraint and access net that channels behavior into specific patterns.
My point was: that constiction of individuals might not make the *macro*
level more predictable.
It is almost a truism to say that constraining individual action will
make the individual's aciton more predictable.
Regards.
--------------------------------------------------
Bruce Edmonds,
Centre for Policy Modelling,
Manchester Metropolitan University, Aytoun Bldg.,
Aytoun St., Manchester, M1 3GH. UK.
Tel: +44 161 247 6479 Fax: +44 161 247 6802
http://www.cpm.mmu.ac.uk/~bruce
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