INTERNATIONAL BIOMETRIC SOCIETY
The 189th Ordinary General Meeting of the British Region of the Society
will be held on Thursday 3rd December 1998 at 2:30 pm at the Royal
Entomological Society, 41 Queen's Gate, London SW7. (Nearest Tube
Stations Gloucester Road or South Kensington.)
Programme (Approx. times):
HOW SHOULD WE CONSIDER THE IMPLICATIONS TO AGRICULTURE OF THE INTRODUCTION
OF GENETICALLY MODIFIED CROPS
John Fenlon, Horticulture Research International (2:30)
This talk will look at the background to GM crops and their introduction
to commercial agriculture. Although the word risk is frequently used in
this context, it is generally accepted that trans-genes will escape. It
is far more important to consider the consequences of that escape, and to
understand what measures can be taken to minimise their spread. We will
consider what data are available, whether those data are useful, and how
we might estimate the risks and model the consequences of gene escape.
LINEAR SCORES AND ROC CURVES
John Copas, University of Warwick (3:00)
The ROC curve is a familiar way of describing the performance of a
diagnostic score or risk score. The (weighted) area under the ROC
curve can be interpreted as an overall measure of how well the score
discriminates between cases with and without the condition of interest.
We explore the idea that, instead of using some conventional model like
linear discriminant analysis or logistic regression, we should develop
a score with the specific aim of achieving good ROC properties. A semi-
parametric method is suggested.
Tea (3:30)
PUBLIC ATTITUDES TO EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES - WHY PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT IS
NECESSARY
Lynn Frewer, Institute of Food Research (4:00)
Risk perception is socially constructed - it is the psychology under-
lying peoples' beliefs about risks that determine whether emerging
technologies are acceptable to the public. In particular, technologies
that result in risks which are perceived to be unnatural, unethical,
and not under personal control are likely to result in maximum public
outrage. However, people also recognise the benefits of such
technologies and, provided that the public rather than industry benefits
from the application of these technologies, public acceptance is likely
to be greater. If personal control is not possible, it is essential
that the public trust regulatory systems responsible for maintaining
public and environmental safety. To this end it is essential that
public participation in regulatory issues and strategic decision making
be fostered through appropriate involvement mechanisms. Different
approaches to developing such regulatory transparency are discussed.
DISCUSSION
Robert Curnow, University of Reading (4:30)
Robert Curnow will open the discussion with some remarks on his own
experiences with BSE/CJD and with passive smoking.
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