Historic Google Analytics data is definitely going away. They're saying you'll have access for 6 months after the 1 July 2023 cut-off and they have several good reasons for wanting to get rid of all that old data, so I reckon they'll keep to that. So people will need to come up with a way of archiving the stats they want (we'll be releasing something to help with that later this year).
And yes, I agree it's a good chance to look at alternatives. Although my bet is that 99% of museums will end up moving over to GA4. At the sort of scale we're talking about, the alternatives aren't all that great and they come with a price tag. Plus time is tight.
Besides, it's not as if many people were experts with UA anyway (and if you are then please drop me a line). So now's a good chance to start from scratch, track useful stuff beyond the usual vanity metrics, and learn the (in some quite important ways better) new thing. Hooray?
Can I plug a thing? Tomorrow at 11am (UK time) I'm doing a session on what cultural orgs should do about switching to GA4. I'll cover the alternatives too https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_rIvolXT4RdaKSQ0XQQHQsQ (a recording will be available). Hopefully it'll be useful.
Chris Unitt
One Further
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