Dear All,

I think this is a case where I am not sure where the line is between asking for help and people just thinking I am being lazy. So I am looking for Opinion Dynamics models that are validated (by which I mean some direct effort to compare aggregate dynamics with real data - I realise that isn't the only way that "validated" is used but that's what I want.) By various routes, I have compiled the short list of such articles below:

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Bernardes, A. T., Stauffer, D. and Kertész, J. (2001) ‘Election Results and the Sznajd Model on Barabasi Network’, The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, 25(1), January, pp. 123-127. doi:10.1142/S0129183101001584

Bernardes, A. T., Costa, U. M. S., Araujo, A. D. and Stauffer, D. (2002) ‘Damage Spreading, Coarsening Dynamics and Distribution of Political Votes in Sznajd Model on Square Lattice’, International Journal of Modern Physics C: Computational Physics and Physical Computation, 12(2), February, pp. 159-168. doi:10.1140/e10051-002-0013-y

Brousmiche, Kei-Leo, Kant, Jean-Daniel, Sabouret, Nicolas and Prenot-Guinard, François (2016) ‘From Beliefs to Attitudes: Polias, A Model of Attitude Dynamics Based on Cognitive Modelling and Field Data’, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 19(4), October, article 2, <https://www.jasss.org/19/4/2.html>. doi:10.18564/jasss.3161

Caruso, Filippo and Castorina, Paolo (2005) ‘Opinion Dynamics and Decision of Vote in Bipolar Political Systems’, arXiv > Physics > Physics and Society, 26 March, version 2. doi:10.1142/S0129183105008059

Chattoe-Brown, Edmund (2014) ‘Using Agent Based Modelling to Integrate Data on Attitude Change’, Sociological Research Online, 19(1), February, article 16, <https://www.socresonline.org.uk/19/1/16.html>. doi:0.5153/sro.3315

Duggins, Peter (2017) ‘A Psychologically-Motivated Model of Opinion Change with Applications to American Politics’, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 20(1), January, article 13, <http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/20/1/13.html>. doi:10.18564/jasss.3316

Fortunato, Santo and Castellano, Claudio (2007) ‘Scaling and Universality in Proportional Elections’, Physical Review Letters, 99(13), 28 September, article 138701. doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.99.138701

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Note that I am not saying the validation performance is good or that these papers don't have other "issues". I just want to find "attempts" at this stage.

However, I'm not sure that systematic literature reviewing works for this topic. For example, Web of Science gives 1681 hits for "opinion dynamics". When you restrict by "validation" it comes down to 15 but _none_ of them prove to involve validation in the sense I am using it. Obviously, I could try the same with "validating" and "validated" but the overwhelming success I have had so far does not encourage me ;)

So can anyone think of a way of using a search term approach to winkle out "empirical" models? Or does anyone happen to know any models to add to my list? I have also checked to see if these articles are cited in JASSS and either they aren't or they aren't cited as empirical but as, say, models based on networks or models including "rejection" of discrepant opinions. (That in itself seems interesting to me. Even the handful of empirical models don't seem to register as something distinctive.)

Obviously for those of us interested in empirical modelling, challenges in even finding them as a class are quite bad news.

All the best,

Edmund

-- 
  Edmund Chattoe-Brown
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