Carsten Bormann <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
    >> Geoff is surely right that if/when the end-to-end traffic is down to
    >> c. 10% it is hard to imagine the revenue will be there to support the
    >> infrastructure.

    > That would be true if all packets had the same value.  (For me, those
    > Webex/BBB/jit.si packets are nearly infinitely more valuable than the
    > YouTube ones…  Generally, much of the home-to-workplace traffic is not
    > supported by CDNs.)

A contention of the CDN focused model is thta your webex/BBB/jit.si/Zoom/meet
packets would only have to go as far as the nearest DC where that service has
been hosted.  Then there would be intra-CDN private networks to connect you
together.
This would mean that the ability to run your own jit.si/BBB would be limited.
A BBB for U-Bremen might be at the Western Germany DC complex, and maybe
that's enough to reach all your relevant students.  The jit.si that you,
Marco, Andy and I used this morning would be, I think, a victim of such a new
system, unless it had a presence in enough DCs to cover all of us.
 
    >> Another way to measure this might be to look at the traffic at IXPs.
    >> If the access/local ISPs are simply handing off to local CDN operators
    >> then the traffic seen by IXPs is (presumably) diminishing.

    > Yes, it would be very useful to have some numbers to play with.

I know that there is a lot of numbers, but that many IXs have problems
releasing them.  The IXPManager effort has some APIs to help, but I don't
think that they are ubiquitous enough.  So it might take a researcher some
time to go sign NDAs, get access to the aggregated non-CDN data.  
That would be worth the time, if only because it would validate any
subsequent numbers that came out via APIs.


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