Dear all,
I am hoping the following event might be of interest to some people on the list.
Please join us for the following talk by Professor Ana Beatriz Galvão, Warwick Business School, organised by the Business and Industrial Section of the Royal Statistical Society:
Title: Communicating Data Uncertainty: Experimental Evidence for U.K. GDP
Speaker: Professor Ana Beatriz Galvão
When: Monday 28 September 2020, 17:00 - 17:45
Many economic statistics are subject to data revisions. But initial estimates of GDP growth are commonly published without any direct quantitative indication of their uncertainty. To assess if and how the public interpret and understand UK GDP data uncertainty, we conduct a randomised controlled experiment. The survey is designed to assess: (1) perceptions of the uncertainty in single-valued GDP growth numbers; (2) the public's interpretation and understanding of uncertainty information communicated in different formats; and (3) how communicating uncertainty affects trust in the data and the producer of these data. We find that the majority of the public understand that there is uncertainty inherent in GDP numbers, but communicating uncertainty information improves the public's understanding of why data revisions happen. It encourages them not to take GDP point estimates at face-value but does not decrease trust in the data. We find that it is especially helpful to communicate uncertainty information quantitatively using intervals, density strips and bell curves.
This is a joint work with Professor James Mitchell, Warwick Business School.
Please, find more details and register for this online event at https://rss.org.uk/training-events/events/events-2020/sections/communicating-data-uncertainty-experimental-eviden/#fulleventinfo
This is an online event and joining instructions will be sent to those registered, so please do register for this event in advance.
Thank you,
Andrei Bejan
Business and Industrial Section of the Royal Statistical Society
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