Hi Nigel,
Thank you for your message and critique of my emails.
At this stage, many of us on this list are also involved in design work. Some of that design work has necessary links with PhD-level research in design.
Some practical design work involves what in PhD research terms is 'problem-based research' and 'exploratory research' rather than 'hypothesis-testing' research.
There are advantages of real problem-based research as a basis for design PhDs, especially those kinds of real problems that have serious consequences.
An example of one current problem-based design project we're involved in that would make a good PhD design research project if it didn't need to be done so fast is our current work in India.
The project involves (amongst other things) providing advice to an Indian NGO on the design of organisational and technical strategies of rural development to mitigate the problems consequent on COVID-19 and related strategies .
The design issue isn't primarily to do with the health and mortality effects of COVID-19 itself .
The larger problem is primarily to reduce the loss of life associated with systems of food supply, accommodation, poverty, governance and water shortage exacerbated by COVID-19 control strategies (e.g. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-52086274 ).
Perhaps you don't think this is a design problem worth addressing?
Modelling of prediction of outcomes from different strategies would be an essential element but we can't use it because of lack of data.
Instead, we're forced into looking at the situation on the ground and on histories of successful strategies from other fields and of large-scale strategies that failed.
For design researchers working in this area, it is useful to know that in two countries, a design of a health/social control strategy based on social isolation has worked well. It's also worth trying to identify the socio-structural factors that enable this.
The two big risks of mass social isolation strategies with adverse economic effects on the poor are breakdown of law and order; and overthrow of governance/government. From experience, I'd guess that we will begin to see the starting signs of such breakdowns emerging about now in Western countries. The usual follow up is martial followed by a range of other social and economic consequences as we can see in the Middle East. The design for the COVID-19 strategies enacted in Australia and New Zealand are also effective in reducing the above risks.
My thoughts in writing the previous post were that some speculation on key design issues that might be useful to those considering PhD design research in this area (or even managing their lives).
In case, you hadn't realised, the list of meta-design factors (that you appear to have unthinkingly criticised as list a wealthy lifestyle factors ) was in fact highly-specific and carefully chosen. However, if you would like more technical references...
Some of us find that ‘the ability to predict’ is a core aspect of all professional design, and, as I've argued elsewhere, the primary purpose of all design theory and design research. Having sound predictions of the future relating to COVID-19 helps identify the best directions for design efforts and best use of design resources in this space.
A recent research article by Kissler et al published by the AAAS provides many elements of such prediction of use to designers. It suggests social distancing will be necessary into 2022 and careful surveillance necessary to avoid a resurgence as far ahead as 2024.
The modelling is based on time series analysis of US data and funded by National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; the Morris-Singer Fund for the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health; the NIH, Doris Duke Charitable Foundation; the Wellcome Trust and internal awards through Harvard University.
The reference is Kissler et al (2020) Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period, Science.
It is available from https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/14/science.abb5793
The earlier modelling of Ferguson et al from Imperial College in London is also useful and is available at https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
Both demonstrate the benefits for designers of mathematically-based predictive modelling to address design situations involving more than 2 feedback loops. This mathematical modelling is both effective and necessary to undertake design for systems and strategies of complex situations.
Note also, that in other circumstances, this successful combination of mathematically-based modelling prior to and during design activities successfully addresses what would otherwise be called a ‘wicked problem’.
Note also, it is hard to see how this COVID-19 strategy design problem (and similar problems) could be adequately addressed using only the traditional design approach of stakeholder consultation.
It suggests, as do many other examples, that moving on from traditional designerly ways of thinking and research is advantageous in many areas of design research.
Cheers,
Terry
-----Original Message-----
From: PhD-Design - This list is for discussion of PhD studies and related research in <[log in to unmask]> On Behalf Of Nigel Cross
Sent: Thursday, 16 April 2020 9:50 PM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: Is Australian health policy of interest here? Not with five (5!) tails.
I agree very much with Ken Friedman’s posts on the lack of relevance, pertinence and validity of previous posts related to Covid-19 health policies. The post that drew Ken’s particular criticism, on the Western Australia state’s Covid-19 policies, from Terry Love, was just a number of unsubstantiated statements, with an unsupported and vague conclusion that “it seems like this [W. Australia’s] is a well-designed strategy that will work over the longer term” and a number of “guesses” on what might be “effective enablers of designs for effective COVID-19 protection strategies” which were just bullet point decriptors of a wealthy Western lifestyle. It was a particlarly poor example of writing and discussing at any kind of academic level, comprising just anecdotal observations, opinions and guesses. It was a post that might be acceptable on general social media fora, where anyone might broadly comment on state responses to the Covid-19 pandemic, and where any reliable, verified evidence is considered unnecessary. It contributed nothing to any serious consideration of the design of protection strategies for Covid-19. In particular, as Ken pointed out, it contained nothing of relevance to “PhD and related research in design”.
However, in another, related, post Alun Price suggested that such commentaries are “relevant to those of us that are looking at how social design can improve the way that we navigate this difficult time”. As Ken poined out there are much better and more reliable sources if you really are interested in building a body of evidence of responses and outcomes from current examples - which you might be able to analyse rationally once you have reliable evidence. That will be at some point in the future. Alun also suggested that the Australian and New Zealand examples are “good case studies” because “these are examples of controlled experiments”. How are they controlled experiments? What is the independent variable and what are all the other selected factors that are being held constant? What is the hypothesis being tested?
There will be valuable and important lessons to learn from ‘this difficult time’ but they will have to emerge in time from reliable evidence gathering, careful comparative analyses, and informed reflection. The design of large scale social systems is a very complex topic, not to be taken lightly. I suggest that all we in this modest community can learn at this time, from our partial, uninformed (and perhaps misinformed) observations of state responses to Covid-19, is that some governments appeared at least to have prepared for such an event, whereas others had not. And that is still not relevant to “PhD and related research in design”.
Nigel Cross
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