Dear Radstatters
I hope you are all well.
It looks like we might be entering a phase where the post-lockdown world
begins to wake up, but over-70s are urged or commanded to stay at home. In
some ways I would feel this as worse than the current situation. At
present, I know that ‘nothing is happening’, so I’m not missing out. But if
things ARE happening, and I’m not allowed to go (or if I’m too scared to
go), things will be different.
But people ARE different. Some over-70s are ravingly fit. Some youngsters
are vulnerable – or risk-averse. What we need is an INDIVIDUAL RISK MONITOR.
But how would it work?
I have in mind something like QRISK which (speaking from memory) takes risk
factor inputs such as age, sex, smoking, alcohol, cholesterol, family
history, weight, blood pressure and glucose intolerance, and gives 10YRCARD
as output. This is the risk of having a ‘cardiac event’ within the next 10
years. I found that my 10YRCARD was 27%, but I could reduce it to 17% by
taking statins.
Would something like this be useful post-lockdown? Is so, how should it
function?
As inputs I would add greater granularity – my risk in York or New York is
different from that in Highgate or Harlem.
Would the output be something like 1monthCOVID under several different
scenarios, or would outputs be possible for individual actions e.g. go for
a walk, go shopping, go to a meeting, take a bus?
And what data would this all be based upon – both in the ideal world, and
in today’s real world?
I’d welcome your views – inputs, outputs, scenarios? Or is the idea too
stupid to be worth considering?
JOHN BIBBY
*==== STOP PRESS !! York man completes 27-day marathon on April
27th. **Please
sponsor me and support local Food Banks ! **£27? It's up to you!
**Details
at www.tinyurl.com/palathon <http://www.tinyurl.com/palathon>*
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