CSA was being honest: until there is Herd Immunity we’ll always be at risk.
But this is a balance of risk. With new parameters suggesting a much higher peak & NHS England giving a depressingly low level of surge ICU capacity they decided they’d have to go for a harder suppression and a bit sooner than planned.
Sciteb 思特 London, Beijing, Harvard
Special Thinking: Strategy & Search 思特: 战略 高管搜索
This email may be confidential and is for the intended recipients only.
Sent from my ARM-powered smartphone.
________________________________
From: k.triantafyllopoulos <[log in to unmask]>
Sent: Wednesday, March 18, 2020 4:56:12 PM
To: Nicholas Beale <[log in to unmask]>; [log in to unmask] <[log in to unmask]>
Subject: Re: Is there a conspiracy to keep local data secret? Coronavirus UK cases: how many are in your area?
Dear Nicholas,
I want to believe what you say. However, the chief scientific and chief medical advisors were arguing s week ago a very different strategy. They were talking about herd immunity and all the rest. We had to wait for the WHO alongside the entire world abd many many epidemiologists and statisticians for the strategy to change route. My question is: how do we believe the top advisors when they changes their minds so dramatically in just a few days? Why now they are to be trusted?
Kostas
Sent from my Samsung Galaxy smartphone.
-------- Original message --------
From: Nicholas Beale <[log in to unmask]>
Date: 18/03/2020 16:49 (GMT+00:00)
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: Is there a conspiracy to keep local data secret? Coronavirus UK cases: how many are in your area?
I don’t know Chris Whitty but I know 2 enormously distinguished medics who know him well and I trust their judgement and those of others that he’s outstandingly able and doing the best possible job in highly uncertain and difficult circumstances. Decisions are being made on the basis of the best science and information available. Whatever he decides will be necessary and wise.
The answer to "is there a conspiracy" is almost always "no, don't be silly".
There are far too many idiotic people (some with books to sell!) who don't have the necessary competence (you need to be a proper medical epidemiologist with strong statistical understanding and grasp of how decisions get implemented in practice on a large scale) taking ill-informed pot-shots at the CMO's judgements to get media attention. Let's not add to this.
People will jump to all kind of silly conclusions based on geographical breakdowns. Already the CMO & CSA have to do press conferences every day when they are working flat out on real stuff. We should be supportive not undermining. Esp when the result is inevitably reduced compliance which costs lives: you saw the assumptions in the Imperial Report - 50% and 75%!!
Best wishes
Nicholas
-----Original Message-----
From: A UK-based worldwide e-mail broadcast system mailing list <[log in to unmask]> On Behalf Of John Bibby
Sent: 18 March 2020 15:42
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Is there a conspiracy to keep local data secret? Coronavirus UK cases: how many are in your area?
Is there a conspiracy to keep local data secret?
This Guardian article made me wonder:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/coronavirus-uk-cases-how-many-are-in-your-area
I became more suspicious at a meeting with the York Medical Officer of Health yesterday when I asked if local data was publicly available. She refused to answer and became very combative and kept saying "What would you use it for?"
After I gave her several examples she said "It doesn't matter if there has been 1 death in York, or 100 or 1000. We would still use the same recommendations". (!)
Yet surely local decisions require one to look at local data? I mentioned Small Area Estimate (SAEs) but she showed no sign of having heard of the concept. She just kept saying "local data is unreliable" and "What would you use it for anyway?"
There may be good reasons for keeping local data secret esp. if it is so bad that people would panic. But it seems to me that just as London is "several weeks ahead of the curve" (as Boris has belatedly just realised), York looks as though it is a bit behind the national curve. (Or is all talk of in front of and behind the curve the wrong way of looking at things?)
Comments welcome
JOHN BIBBY
You may leave the list at any time by sending the command
SIGNOFF allstat
to [log in to unmask], leaving the subject line blank.
You may leave the list at any time by sending the command
SIGNOFF allstat
to [log in to unmask], leaving the subject line blank.
You may leave the list at any time by sending the command
SIGNOFF allstat
to [log in to unmask], leaving the subject line blank.
|
