THE CAMBRIDGE STATISTICS DISCUSSION GROUP
Monday 3rd February 2020 7:15 for 7:45
Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics,
Centre for Mathematical Sciences,
Wilberforce Road,
Cambridge, CB3 0WB
The impact of uncertainty on trade agreements between the UK and EU
Oliver Exton
Department of Economics
Abstract: The renegotiation of a trade agreement introduces uncertainty into the economic environment. In June 2016 the British electorate unexpectedly voted to leave the European Union, introducing a new era in which the UK and EU began to renegotiate the terms of the UK-EU trading relationship. We exploit this natural experiment to estimate the impact of uncertainty associated with trade agreement renegotiation on the export participation decision of firms in the UK. Empirically, we develop measures of the trade policy uncertainty facing firms exporting from the UK to the EU after June 2016. We conclude that there would have been a 5% increase in exporting new products to the EU in 2016 and a 6.1% decrease in terminated exports from the UK to the EU if there had been no increased trade policy uncertainty after June 2016.
Speaker: Oliver is a PhD candidate in Economics at the University of Cambridge. His research investigates firm dynamics in international trade using detailed administrative datasets covering the universe of firms and customs transaction in the UK. His research focusses on the impact of trade policy uncertainty on firm exporting decisions following the Brexit referendum. He was awarded the UK Data Service Data Impact Fellowship for 2017.
Directions: The main entrance is reached from Clarkson Road by going along the footpath to the right of the Newton Institute, and turning left through the gatehouse towards the main building (Pavilion A), which has a glass front and a curved grassed roof. Coffee before the talk will be in the common room in Pavilion G, and the talk will be in Meeting Room 15 in Pavilion G. The main entrance is in the middle of the glass front. Free Parking is available after 5pm on Clarkson and Wilberforce Roads and by entering the site off Clarkson Road. Admittance may be difficult after 7:45.
Provisional Next Meetings:
27th February – Meredith Crowley (Economics) on ‘Invoicing and Pricing-to-market: Evidence from UK Exports/Imports Transactions’.
7th May – Allègre Hadida (Judge Business School).
6th October – Rod Jones (Chemistry).
November – Andrea Manica (Zoology).
Supper: Some members eat regularly in the University Centre before each meeting at 5-45pm. Feel free to join them.
Subscriptions: of 1 pound are now due for attending the 2019-2020 session.
Secretary: Peter Watson, MRC Cognition and Brain Sciences Unit, 15 Chaucer Road, Cambridge CB2 7EF;
telephone 01223 769479; E-mail [log in to unmask]<mailto:[log in to unmask]>.
Slides and .mp3 files of old talks: http://www.mrc-cbu.cam.ac.uk/people/peter.watson/csdg.html
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