My report, "Autonomous Vehicle Implementation Predictions: Implications
for Transport Planning" (www.vtpi.org/avip.pdf ) investigates how
quickly self-driving vehicles are likely to be developed and deployed,
and their penetration into new vehicle markets and vehicle fleets, based
on experience with previous vehicle technologies. It also evaluates
their benefits and costs, and how they are likely to affect travel
demands and planning decisions such as optimal road, parking and public
transit supply. This analysis indicates that some benefits, such as more
independent mobility for affluent non-drivers, may begin in the 2020s or
2030s, but most impacts, including reduced traffic and parking
congestion (and therefore infrastructure savings), independent mobility
for low-income people (and therefore reduced need for public transit),
increased safety, energy conservation and pollution reductions, will
only be significant when autonomous vehicles become common and
affordable, probably in the 2040s to 2050s, and some benefits may
require prohibiting human-driven vehicles on certain roadways, which
could take even longer.
It is possible that autonomous vehicles will reduce the costs of
providing shared mobility through autonomous taxies and public transit
services, which will depend on the degree that public policies support
and favor such services. The report suggests that shared, electric,
autonomous services may be about half the price of current taxi and
ridehailing, but will cost more than the marginal costs of operating a
personal vehicle and so could be common in urban areas with concentrated
demand, but in suburban and rural areas many moderate- and higher-income
households will continue to own personal vehicles.
Please let me know if you have feedback on this research.
Best wishes,
-Todd Litman
On 2019-01-16 21:36, van Vuren, Tom wrote:
> All
>
> I am sure I am not alone in being asked the question how MaaS and CAVs
> may affect the future operation of transport systems. Some colleagues
> have responded to that challenge by developing new transport modelling
> approaches, for example agent-based models, and I have seen some
> impressive results.
>
> However, from what I have seen, rather than the model approach, it is
> mainly the assumptions about the new mode alternatives that determine
> the outcomes, irrespective of whether these are applied in traditional
> four-step models or using more advanced techniques. For example, what
> is the assumed speed or road capacity increase for Level 5 CAVs, how
> do travellers perceive the sharing of vehicles, assumed ASCs for
> electric scooters, the representation of fixed and variable costs in
> MaaS alternatives, the value of time assumed for those travelling by
> CAV.
>
> To gain further insight how different assumptions lead to different
> futures, I am interested in getting access to model studies that have
> used existing as well as novel model techniques but most importantly,
> explicit future mobility assumptions to test the sensitivity of
> outcomes to these assumptions. I would be grateful for any suggestions
> for reading material that you can send me to my email address below,
> or that is accessible via the internet. And I am happy to share my
> summary interpretation and literature list.
>
> Tom van Vuren, Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds,
> LS2 9JT and Mott MacDonald, Level 10, 383 Kent Street, Sydney
> E [log in to unmask], T +61 (0)290986815, M +61 (0)415949447
> Twitter @tvanvuren
>
>
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