The mortality difference is something to be investigated. It may be an
argument for Adjusted RCTs but it is not an argument against
randomisation.
JOHN BIBBY
On Wed, 25 Jul 2018 at 08:56, Paul Spicker <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
> A snippet on Twitter, to be found
>
> @_MiguelHernan
> <https://mobile.twitter.com/_MiguelHernan>
> offers a quick lesson on why we shouldn't trust randomised control
> trials. 860 older people were randomly allocated to intervention and
> control groups. Before any intervention had been done, the researcher
> realised that people in the intervention group already had significantly
> higher mortality (p=.0003). His reference: Vass M (PhD Thesis).
> Prevention of functional decline in older people. Faculty of Health
> Sciences, University of Copenhagen 2010, p.120.
>
> This paper in the British Medical Journal has it covered:
>
> https://www.bmj.com/content/323/7327/1450
>
> It shows what you get with "significant results" and a "flawless design"
> - in this case, a successful intervention based on praying for divine
> intervention some years after the outcomes had already happened. Perhaps
> that's why the Danish result is off-beam - someone has compromised the
> results by praying for the control group.
>
>
> Paul Spicker <http://spicker.uk/about.htm>
> Emeritus Professor of Public Policy
> Robert Gordon University
>
> tel: +44 1334850164
>
> website: http://www.spicker.uk/
> blog: http://blog.spicker.uk/
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