Dear John,
I did a similar exercise for Ireland a few years ago. Most revenue
authorities publish data on income tax receipts in income bands. So
you can see how much tax people at different income levels currently
pay. From those you can infer, modulo tax evasion and dodgy
accountants, what people earn. Even though you live in the biggest tax
haven in Europe, the people in these records. are the people who will
end up paying your proposed tax.
You can then look at the graduate income premium by age, and guess the
graduate and non-graduate income distributions (crudely, but not
uselessly). Your best model may be a penny on NI, or whatever it's
called now, as this may be harder to evade than income tax. In either
case the Treasury produces, or used to produce, estimates before each
budget of what a 1p change in rates would yield. For what it's worth,
4c in the euro on the Irish USC would pay for our current higher
education fees. Your fees are higher, so they will cost more to
replace. These estimates are crude, but they are pretty much what
governments currently use to do budgets.
As to the impact of tax, what data there are suggest people are
willing to trade tax, given good political leadership, for better
public services. Whether this is possibel in England, as things are
now, I have no idea.
All the best,
Anthony Staines
--
Anthony Staines,
Professor of Health Systems, School of Nursing and Human Sciences,
Dublin City University, Dublin 9, Ireland.
Tel:- +353 1 7007807. Mob:- +353 86 606 9713
Web:- http://astaines.eu/
On 12 June 2018 at 08:44, John Bibby <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
> Dear Nichola
>
> Please read my email. I was not seeking support for any political project.
> I was genuinely seeking advice from experts on a statistical matter.
>
> Of about 10 responses so far received, nearly all commented on the
> politics, not on the statistics. So maybe people are more interested in
> politics after all?
>
> (Incidentally, I don't agree with your political points, but as you dispute
> my right to discuss them I will not do so!)
>
> Thanks for writing.
>
> JOHN BIBBY
>
>
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> On Mon, Jun 11, 2018 at 2:36 PM, Nicholas Beale <[log in to unmask]>
> wrote:
>
>> I really don't think we should be canvassing support for political
>> projects on this list.
>>
>> But how anyone educated might think it could be a good idea to try to
>> drive graduates out of the UK by raising their tax rates to pretty well the
>> highest in Europe is rather hard to understand. Every sensible country
>> tries to *attract* such people.
>>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: A UK-based worldwide e-mail broadcast system mailing list [mailto:
>> [log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of John Bibby
>> Sent: 11 June 2018 10:36
>> To: [log in to unmask]
>> Subject: Delphi Assistance needed.
>>
>> Can anyone help me please with the following estimate?:
>>
>> I need a ballpark figure of how much extra tax would be due if everybody
>> who earns over £30k has to pay an extra 9p in the £ income tax EXCEPT those
>> who do not have a university education.
>>
>> This is to help with a "Higher Education Levy" proposal I am developing.
>> You can probably see where I am going.
>>
>> Thanks if you can help
>>
>> JOHN BIBBY
>>
>> PS. Please reply to me alone, not to the group.
>> --
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