The Royal Statistical Society's West Midlands Local Group will host a talk this Thursday 8th March by Christopher Jewell (Lancaster), entitled "Real-time monitoring of vaccine effectiveness for foot and mouth disease control: Japan 2010"
The talk is open to all. Be sure to share the event with any friends or colleagues whom you think might be interested.
Our event will take place in the Zeeman Building at the University of Warwick (http://campus-cms.warwick.ac.uk/share/dc23012fad5d6ff24bc0542f2639d6c4), from 17:00 till 18:00. Refreshments will be served before and afterwards.
Talk:
To vaccinate or not to vaccinate? This was the controversial question that plagued disease control policy decisions during the UK foot and mouth disease epidemic in 2001. The decision not to vaccinate remains unpopular, with many arguing that vaccinating susceptible animals during the outbreak would lead to a more humane and timely end to the epidemic. In 2010, however, vaccination was used as part of an effort to control an outbreak foot and mouth disease in Japan, presenting the opportunity to directly study its effectiveness as a control measure.
This talk will present an analysis of the outbreak in which a spatial stochastic “SIR" disease model is fitted to epidemiological data using a real-time Bayesian data-augmentation method. Estimates of the vaccine effectiveness are provided sequentially during the outbreak, indicating that logistical constraints and a poor understanding of the true extent of the outbreak led to sub-optimal deployment of the vaccine doses. These results highlight the difficulty in deploying widespread vaccination policies ahead of an epidemic, and provide a predictive solution for adapting vaccination strategies to the specifics of an individual outbreak.
Agenda:
16:30–17:00 — Tea and coffee
Statistics common room C0.06
17:00–18:00 — Talk
Seminar room A1.01
18:00–19:00 — Wine and cheese
Statistics common room C0.06
Venue:
Zeeman Building, University of Warwick. To reach the Statistics Common Room, walk straight across the foyer and enter the Department of Statistics. Room A1.01 is on the first floor, above the building's main entrance.
For more information, visit the RSS West Midlands web site https://sites.google.com/view/rsswmlg/ or contact David Selby on [log in to unmask]
* * *
Thanks,
David Selby
Honorary secretary
RSS West Midlands Local Group
You may leave the list at any time by sending the command
SIGNOFF allstat
to [log in to unmask], leaving the subject line blank.
|