Royal Statistical Society Professional Statisticians’ Forum Webinar
A free-to-attend, telephone-based (virtual) meeting for professional statisticians
Meeting date / time: Tuesday 8 December 2015, 2:00pm – 3:30pm GMT
Title: Using prior elicitation and Bayesian thinking to help shape decision-making in the pharmaceutical industry
Speaker: Prof Nicky Best, GSK, Joint winner of the 2015 RSS / PSI prize for statistical excellence in the pharmaceutical industry
For the past 18 months, clinical statisticians at GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) have been using prior elicitation techniques to enable quantification of existing knowledge in the absence of directly relevant data, and to help predict probability of success of next study(s) at key milestone decision points for all phases of clinical drug development. This initiative forms a key component of an R&D-wide focus on innovation in clinical design at GSK, which aims to establish Bayesian approaches and use of prior distributions as standard practice to support internal decision-making and analysis.
In this talk, Nicky Best will give a flavour of what the prior elicitation process involves, and discuss her experiences of using prior elicitation techniques and other Bayesian approaches within the pharmaceutical industry. Some of the challenges along the way have included first having to teach ourselves on both the statistical and psychological aspects of an elicitation process and then educating our clinical colleagues and senior management about this, as well as encouraging and influencing project teams to work with us and then to use our material in their decision-making and investment review meetings. Nicky will also share some personal reflections on what it has been like to make the transition from academic to industry statistician.
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