There is a growing body of evidence that disasters are capable of catalyzing political change at geopolitical, national and local scale. Ilan Kelman's web site, "Disaster Diplomacy" contains much of this evidence including a breakthrough for peace-making in Aceh following the tragic Indian Ocean tsunami (http://www.disasterdiplomacy.org/ ).
In Nepal there may soon be another case of a disaster jump-starting stalled political change. Nepal's parliament has finally approved the outline of a constitution some five years after the deadline of 2010 set after the end of the civil war in 2006 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-33067693?post_id=10153345172283185_10153422209343185#_=_ ). Government dysfunction is widely believed to be an important factor that undermines efforts to reduce earthquake risk in Nepal. If finally a constitution is forthcoming and a federalist division of power is established, one might hope for more focused attention on the threats and opportunities facing 30 million people living in one of the most seismically active parts of the planet.
At first glance, news of breaking the log jam in parliament seems to be good news. However, with the monsoon coming soon and some affected villages still too isolated to enjoy sufficient relief, with tens of thousands still homeless and thousands of classrooms and health facilities destroyed, will the recovery process suffer because civil servants and politicians are distracted by this latest political development? That would be ironic. Movement beyond the stalemate following the 'comprehensive peace agreement' in 2006 is certainly to be welcomed and, in the long run, may be the start of an effective federal approach to governance that will facilitate reduction of earthquake risk. But the eight provinces envisioned will need to be established, institutions modified, resources re-distributed, provincial parliaments created. In the short run, the re-division of Nepal will demand a great deal of attention to detail by the very decision makers and leaders in present-day district administrations who are hard pressed to manage relief and early recovery.
Dr. Ben Wisner
Aon-Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre, University College London, UK
& Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro, Tanzania
& Environmental Studies Program, Oberlin College, Oberlin, OH, USA
"People don't care how much you know until they know how much you care."
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