Dear friends,

Have a look at this projection based on what seems a solid methodology 

http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/04/29/dire-prospects-seen-when-the-full-nepal-earthquake-death-toll-is-tallied/?smid=tw-share&_r=0 .

It's important because it focuses attention on the work still to be done, both as a matter of psychological preparation (responders are flesh and blood humans with strong emotional reactions to suffering, and they, too, need help) and a matter of mobilizing resources internationally.  The UN estimates it needs nearly USD 500 million for the continuing relief operation and had received as on last night about USD 50 million in pledges and half that amount in actual donations.

Also, this is a reality check against which several longer term activities should be thought through.

*** Lessons for Nepal, especially in the light of the evidence from Laurent Bollinger's work that this is the 'twin' of the 1934 quake and that another large temblor could occur within decades as knock on of this one. Earlier I sent round some ideas about a decentralised system for response and immediate relief that would provide isolated rural villages with some assistance for a week or two, while also allowing better care of survivors. This work on response and also work to improve the local and district scale disaster reduction plans seems a priority. The rural administrative system exists to support this.  A consultative process at Village Development Committee scale could choose villages as depot for pre-positioned relief supplies, generators and radios for communication with district headquarters. Despite constraints caused by echoes of the civil war (1996-2006) and imperfect democracy (no constitution yet agreed and no local elections), the decentralised governance system works remarkably well (at least where I was for a week in a village in the eastern hills, and according to what I've read and heard). 75% of land tax goes back to the villages (VDC) for their choice of investment, 25% to districts. That is rare in the HIPC countries familiar to me. So on this basis, how do we move ahead?

*** Evidence of NSET's effectiveness and achievements after 25 years (Nepal Society for Earthquake Technology) -- what does this earthquake reveal?  I am hoping that NSET's founder/ director, Amod Dixit's, request for such an evaluation made to Fred Krimgold in Sendai, can take place, possibly as part of EERI missions over the next few weeks and months (Earthquake Engineering Research Institute). For example, NSET has led by retrofitting 260 schools in the Kathmandu Valley.  How did they perform in the earthquake? What other early assessment missions do you know about? Will they be checking in with NSET?  Can we avoid duplication?

*** Liaison with organisations of the Nepali diaspora in North America, UK and the rest of Europe, so that their USD tens of milions that will soon go to rebuilding houses will be used in a way that 'builds back better'. Are any of you willing to take up the job of contacting Nepal organisations in your countries?

*** URGENT lessons for the other urban regions facing an exposure similar to that of the Kathmandu valley in China, India, Iran, Central Asia and Turkey.

If you have any advice and/ or willingness to work an any of the above, please be in touch with me. 

Please also alert me if any of the items marked with *** above would duplicate some work or effort you know is already underway!

Warm regards, and please join me in praying for Nepal and its people.

BEN


Dr. Ben Wisner
Aon-Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre, University College London, UK
& Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro, Tanzania
& Environmental Studies Program, Oberlin College, Oberlin, OH, USA

"People don't care how much you know until they know how much you care."