Inflation Targeting and Inflation Persistence

GEORGE J. BRATSIOTIS, JAKOB MADSEN,CHRISTOPHER MARTIN

Abstract This paper argues that the adoption of an inflation target reduces the persistence of inflation. We develop the theoretical literature on inflation persistence by introducing a Taylor Rule for monetary policy into a model of persistence and showing that inflation targets reduce inflation persistence. We investigate changes in the time series properties of inflation in seven countries that introduced inflation targets in the late 1980s or early 1990s. We find that the persistence of inflation is greatly reduced or eliminated following the introduction of inflation targets.

Key words： Taylor Rule<http://eps.ruc.edu.cn/EN/Y2015/V03/I01/3>, inflation targeting<http://eps.ruc.edu.cn/EN/Y2015/V03/I01/3>, Phillips Curve<http://eps.ruc.edu.cn/EN/Y2015/V03/I01/3>, inflation persistence<http://eps.ruc.edu.cn/EN/Y2015/V03/I01/3>

PDF Link: http://eps.ruc.edu.cn/EN/article/showArticleFile.do?attachType=PDF&id=8393



The Stabilizing Effect of Industrial Structure Upgrade on Economic Fluctuations in China

FUQIAN FANG and XINYU ZHAN

Abstract Empirical study using a time-varying parameter model indicates that since the reform and opening up of China, its industrial structure upgrade has had an increasingly significant stabilizing effect on the amplitude of economic fluctuations. A further analysis using a TGARCH model reveals that the three major industrial sectors have asymmetrical effects on the size of macroeconomic fluctuation: the primary industry (extraction) has little effect; the secondary industry (manufacturing) has a leverage effect mainly caused by heavy industry; the tertiary industry (services) has a clear stabilizing effect, with the effect of transportation, logistics, the postal industry, housing-catering services, and other service industries being most significant, and the effect of wholesale, retail, the finance industry and real estate being less significant due to their own large fluctuations. The policy implications of the findings are that to maintain stable growth in the economy, China should optimize the relations of the three major industrial sectors, and further push for the upgrading of the industrial structure, especially the development of the tertiary industry.

Key words： industrial structure<http://eps.ruc.edu.cn/EN/abstract/abstract8394.shtml>, economic fluctuations<http://eps.ruc.edu.cn/EN/abstract/abstract8394.shtml>, stabilizing effect<http://eps.ruc.edu.cn/EN/abstract/abstract8394.shtml>, China<http://eps.ruc.edu.cn/EN/abstract/abstract8394.shtml>

PDF Link: http://eps.ruc.edu.cn/EN/article/showArticleFile.do?attachType=PDF&id=8394



Combating Corruption in China: The Role of the State and Other Agencies in Comparative Perspective

LESLIE HOLMES

Abstract This paper is the first to compare China’s current anticorruption approach with those of both post-communist and other Sinic states/regions. Its principal purpose is to compare anti-corruption in China with the situation in countries that constitute appropriate comparators—either systemically (post-communist transition states) or culturally (predominantly Sinic states/regions)—and suggest ways in which China could usefully learn from these comparators. A comparative public policy evaluative approach forms the core of the analysis. The study uses publicly available survey data, both perceptual and experiential, for drawing inferences about the corruption levels in China and the other states analyzed. A neo-Weberian approach to system legitimacy and delegitimation is employed in analyzing the potential dangers of a radical anti-corruption approach, while Giddensian structuration theory is used to emphasize the interplay between structure and agency in anti-corruption. The findings and value of this research are primarily practical, in that it highlights potential lessons China could learn from Singapore and the Hong Kong SAR while also identifying the principal obstacles to the adoption of such measures. In particular, the establishment of a single and independent anti-corruption agency would almost certainly have a positive impact on the reduction of corruption levels. But this is politically difficult, since such a body could be perceived as constituting a threat to the Communist Party. Moreover, all comparisons between states are limited, since some features are unique to a given country.

Key words： corruption<http://eps.ruc.edu.cn/EN/abstract/abstract8395.shtml>, communism<http://eps.ruc.edu.cn/EN/abstract/abstract8395.shtml>, post-communism<http://eps.ruc.edu.cn/EN/abstract/abstract8395.shtml>, transition<http://eps.ruc.edu.cn/EN/abstract/abstract8395.shtml>

PDF Link: http://eps.ruc.edu.cn/EN/article/showArticleFile.do?attachType=PDF&id=8395


Conceptualizing the Nexus between Econocentric Capitalism and Logocentric Radicalism

XING LI

Abstract The article intends to contribute a framework of understanding the dual rise of econocentric fundamentalism (referring to market capitalism) and logocentric radicalism (referring to counterhegemonic political forces) as a process of mutual generation and destruction. “Mutual generation and destruction” implies a dialectical process in which the deification of the free market and the global expansion of market capitalism have unavoidably generated destructive contradictions leading to the resurgence of logo-centric counterhegemonic socio-political forces. It is the analysis of this nexus that leads to a better understanding of the essence of worldwide religious/political radicalisms rather than their appearance. Islamic fundamentalism, for example, and other forms of political radicalism can be seen as a part of counter-hegemonic political movements representing an outlet for action and a force for change. Paradoxically, what we are witnessing today is a confrontation between two types of fundamentalist forces: econocentrism vis-à-vis logocentrism.

Key words: capitalism<http://eps.ruc.edu.cn/EN/abstract/abstract8396.shtml>, fundamentalism<http://eps.ruc.edu.cn/EN/abstract/abstract8396.shtml>, religion<http://eps.ruc.edu.cn/EN/abstract/abstract8396.shtml>, ideology<http://eps.ruc.edu.cn/EN/abstract/abstract8396.shtml>, market<http://eps.ruc.edu.cn/EN/abstract/abstract8396.shtml>, contradiction<http://eps.ruc.edu.cn/EN/abstract/abstract8396.shtml>

PDF Link: http://eps.ruc.edu.cn/EN/article/showArticleFile.do?attachType=PDF&id=8396


China and the EU as Global Actors: Challenges and Opportunities for Joint Cooperation

EMIL KIRCHNER
Abstract This paper examines the level of cooperation which China and the EU undertake on global issues, especially with regard to the future roles of international organizations such as the UN, the IMF, the World Bank, the G20, the form and practice of multilateralism, the prospects and direction of a multipolar/core world, and whether the two tend to be partners rather than competitors on issues of climate change and energy policy. It applies the approach of international security cooperation and relies primarily on documentary evidence (e.g., communiqués on global or regional governance aspects, issued at EU-China summits or separately by each). This paper argues that the “misunderstanding” on principles between the EU and China is at odds with the growing economic interdependencies between the two sides. The EU and China, two of the pillars in the emerging multipolar order, have fundamentally opposed attitudes to key aspects of global politics, such as sovereignty and multilateralism, and these differences are bound to create further tensions in the development of global governance regimes in the future. The originality of this paper lies in that it moves beyond the traditional form of investigating on how each China and the EU perceive each other in cooperation terms by focusing instead on the level of cooperation both partners pursue with regard to multilateralism and within the activities of international organizations.

Key words： China, EU<http://eps.ruc.edu.cn/EN/abstract/abstract8397.shtml>, multilateralism<http://eps.ruc.edu.cn/EN/abstract/abstract8397.shtml>, global governance<http://eps.ruc.edu.cn/EN/abstract/abstract8397.shtml>, security cooperation<http://eps.ruc.edu.cn/EN/abstract/abstract8397.shtml>, international organizations<http://eps.ruc.edu.cn/EN/abstract/abstract8397.shtml>

PDF Link: http://eps.ruc.edu.cn/EN/article/showArticleFile.do?attachType=PDF&id=8397



The Chinese Are Coming: The Political Implications of the Growing Sino-Israel Economic Ties

MERON MEDZINI

Abstract The relationship between the State of Israel and the People’s Republic of China offers a fascinating case in modern international relations. Ostensibly there is not much that unites the two countries so different in size and population, in regimes and politics, yet, over the past two decades, these relations have acquired a great deal of importance and significance for both. While it is easy to understand the attraction to China of Israel’s experience, innovation and its exemplary human capital, it is less evident what China is seeking to achieve in deepening its ties with Israel. This paper attempts to assess the state of Sino-Israel bilateral
relations and their impact on the future of the two nations.

Key words： Israel<http://eps.ruc.edu.cn/EN/abstract/abstract8405.shtml>, China<http://eps.ruc.edu.cn/EN/abstract/abstract8405.shtml>, Sino-Israel economic ties<http://eps.ruc.edu.cn/EN/abstract/abstract8405.shtml>, Sino-Israel trade relations<http://eps.ruc.edu.cn/EN/abstract/abstract8405.shtml>

PDF Link:  http://eps.ruc.edu.cn/EN/article/showArticleFile.do?attachType=PDF&id=8405


Assessing Sino-Indian Economic Relations in an Interdependence Framework: 1992-2008

JOE THOMAS KARACKATTU

Abstract This study situates Sino-Indian economic interaction under the interdependence framework. By mapping conflict behavior in this dyad against the trends in the economic interdependence, we find a discernible shift away from escalation (high-level conflict) towards bargaining (diplomatic contestation). This paper argues that interdependence has only recently emerged in the India-China dyad and that lingering strategic distrust, national security consideration, and protectionist tendency have prevented the deepening of economic interdependence. The findings challenge the direction of interdependence in this dyad normally gleaned from nominal trade data. This paper also highlights key issue-areas that inhibit strategic coupling in the bilateral economic interaction.

Key words： economic interdependence<http://eps.ruc.edu.cn/EN/abstract/abstract8404.shtml>, trade<http://eps.ruc.edu.cn/EN/abstract/abstract8404.shtml>, conflict<http://eps.ruc.edu.cn/EN/abstract/abstract8404.shtml>, Sino-Indian relations<http://eps.ruc.edu.cn/EN/abstract/abstract8404.shtml>, strategy<http://eps.ruc.edu.cn/EN/abstract/abstract8404.shtml>

PDF Link: http://eps.ruc.edu.cn/EN/article/showArticleFile.do?attachType=PDF&id=8404