On 06/17/2014 02:42 AM, Peer-Olaf Siebers wrote:
> Are there any documented examples where errors (e.g. bugs or misconceptions) in the simulation have led to wrong (disastrous) real world decision? I am looking for examples where a mistake in a simulation (discrete event or agent-based) has led to wrong predictions and consequently caused big trouble (e.g. problems with productivity; loss of money).
>
> I know that people usually do not write about failures in the scientific literature. But I remember very vaguely that during my PhD studies I read about some examples. Unfortunately I cannot recall the authors/titles of these papers.
>
>
Partially Kidding,
Does this count:
Donella H. Meadows, Gary. Meadows, Jorgen Randers, and William W.
Behrens III. (1972). The Limits to Growth. New York: Universe Books.
ISBN 0-87663-165-0
I guess it is still debatable how wrong those projections were (
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth).
More seriously, there's a nice discussion of how simulations can go
wrong by inappropriately treating integers and badly managing floats. I
tell all the students to read it.
J. Gary Polhill, Luis R. Izquierdo and Nicholas M. Gotts (2005) The
Ghost in the Model (and Other Effects of Floating Point Arithmetic)
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation vol. 8, no. 1
<http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/8/1/5.html>
I think you'll find plenty of examples of poor cost estimates of federal
programs based on simulations.
--
Paul E. Johnson http://pj.freefaculty.org
Professor Acting Director
Political Science Center for Research Methods & Data Analysis
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