Beyond 2011 Independent Working Group - Save Our Statistics?

This is an appeal by the Beyond 2011 independent working group to those 
who use official population and social statistics in the UK, 
particularly those concerned with area-based statistics. We are here 
referring to the rich range of demographic and socioeconomic 
characteristics which are currently available from national to census 
output area levels. The statistical system is currently under scrutiny 
and review. Key to this review is the search for alternatives to the 
census of population and housing, a core element of UK statistics held 
each decade since 1801. The UK’s system of area-based population 
statistics from national to local levels may be lost unless it is 
justified loudly and clearly. We are concerned that many users of these 
statistics are insufficiently aware of the potential changes and their 
implications and have not been engaged in this debate.

There are two elements to this appeal. Firstly, now and during this 
summer, the case for area-based statistics must be made strongly. Unless 
their economic and substantive benefits can be established now, they 
will not be among the front-running options recommended to parliament at 
the end of the year. What is required are further examples of key uses 
of Census statistics, particularly for geographical levels at local 
authority level and below. So, please send examples to 
[log in to unmask]<mailto:[log in to unmask]>, 
also copied to us at 
[log in to unmask]<mailto:[log in to unmask]>. It would be 
preferable if your contribution states that it may be shared with others.

Secondly, please engage with the consultation to be undertaken later 
this year by ONS. This will require measuring the options they propose 
as alternatives to a traditional census, against each of your key uses 
of local statistics. We are undertaking to make a collective response to 
this consultation based on the evidence we gather, but our efforts 
cannot replace engagement by the widest possible range of individuals 
and organizations.

As Peter Benton, director of the Office for National Statistics (ONS) 
‘Beyond 2011’ programme, working on options for future statistics, has 
said: “Without this we won’t be able to include any quantified benefit 
from … use of small area data in the options assessment and, in the 
extreme, this could result in options that enable future provision of 
small area data being rejected on cost-benefit grounds.”

Further information

1. Who needs sub-local authority statistics?
Traditionally, the Census has supplied a UK-wide system of statistics to 
assess each area’s needs in a way that is both accurately comparable 
with those of other areas and also comparable to past years to 
demonstrate improvements or to highlight worsening conditions. Even 
where counts of employment, health and housing can be updated from 
administrative records, the previous census is still relied upon for 
accurate/robust profiles of population and households. Equality, health 
and safety, housing and economic development plans are evaluated locally 
to ensure plans and achievements meet national standards. Would it be 
fair to say that a UK-wide system of sub-national statistics is required 
to ensure that legislative requirements can be accurately and fairly 
monitored? We would welcome your comments and views on this. 
[log in to unmask]<mailto:[log in to unmask]> .

The Census can certainly be developed – with online completion and 
streamlined questions– but can it be ditched altogether? That is what 
this immediate appeal and the ONS consultation in the Autumn both aim to 
discover.

Whilst it may be possible to extract the required statistics from 
administrative sources and larger sample surveys – with the advantage of 
more regular updates – making a full assessment of those requirements at 
small area level is a key element of this appeal.

2. What government will do and what you can do It is perhaps ironic that 
this discussion is taking place so soon after what is considered one of 
the best censuses in modern history, in 2011. Even before its 
completion, Government Ministers had requested a less costly statistical 
system, without a Census. The UK Statistics Authority have asked the ONS 
to advise on cost-effective options. The ONS will consult on 
front-running options in the Autumn, and make recommendations early in 
2014 so that the government can make a decision before the end of its 
current term of office.

Many will take the Census as given, and will say that, like elections, 
the value of a Census to measure needs is democratic and cannot be 
directly economically measured. However, the need at present is to do 
precisely that. The ONS, through your submissions, need to identify as 
far as possible the economic consequences of particular census-derived 
cross-tabulations or analyses not being available in the future.

Examples of requirements for local statistics a. Distribution of 
resources. Try to include a calculation of the resources that would be 
put in a different place if particular local information were not used.
b. Sample location. Try to include a calculation of the extra resources 
required to achieve the same accuracy with a less targeted sample.
c. Poorer health, more carbon emission, fewer jobs. Try to include a 
justified estimate of the changed practice.
Examples may be national, or from a local authority or agency. In the 
latter case they will be factored up to national impacts.

3. This Working Group
This appeal is being made by the Beyond 2011 independent working group 
on the future of population and social statistics established in June 
2013 “to supply reports and evidence when these are needed; to consider 
the value of population and social statistics for national and small 
areas; to collaborate with ONS in developing the very best methods for 
estimation.” We aim to continue to work over the next year, and welcome 
the support of interested individuals and organisations, who can contact 
us on [log in to unmask]<mailto:[log in to unmask]>. 
Its members are:
Piers Elias, Tees Valley Unlimited, and co-chair of Local Authorities’ 
liaison with central government on population statistics (CLIP) David 
Martin, Professor of Geography, University of Southampton, Deputy 
Director ESRC UK Data Service and National Centre for Research Methods 
Paul Norman, Lecturer in Human Geography, University of Leeds Phil Rees, 
Emeritus Professor of Population Geography, University of Leeds Ludi 
Simpson, Professor of Population Studies, University of Manchester, 
President of the British Society for Population Studies

4. Further consideration of the issues can be found at:
ONS Beyond 2011 project 
website<http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/about-ons/what-we-do/programmes---projects/beyond-2011/index.html> 
.
Science and Technology committee on the Census and Social Science 
(2012)<http://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/commons-select/science-and-technology-committee/news/120921science-and-social-science-report-published/>
Summary of Beyond 2011 in British Society of Population Studies 
Newsletter May 
2013<http://www.ccsr.ac.uk/staff/documents/Beyond2011BSPSnewsletterMay2013.pdf>

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Dr Paul Norman, School of Geography, University of Leeds 
http://www.geog.leeds.ac.uk/people/p.norman/
CV: http://www.personal.leeds.ac.uk/~geopdno/